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from MacroScope:

U.S. May non-farm payrolls may be a calmer affair after April shock

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The May U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday may be a much less volatile affair than last month, when shock news of 288,000 new jobs topped even the most optimistic views.

This time, there is more certainty around a less spectacular but still solid outcome, based on an analysis of forecasts from the most accurate economists in Reuters polls on recent U.S. data.

The range of views among economists who were closest to reality in forecasting recent key releases on jobs, manufacturing activity, and the magnitude of the contraction in first quarter U.S. GDP is significantly narrower than the range in the wider Reuters poll.

Broadly, this supports expectations for U.S. economic growth to accelerate.

Those top forecasters based on recent data ranged from 200,00 to 230,000, with the Reuters median from 105 economists at 218,000, almost right in the middle. The wider sample is 110,000-325,000.

from MacroScope:

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.

This gives some support to the view -- which some say is more hope than a forecast -- that a snap-back is already taking place as the Federal Reserve and most other analysts expect.

from Nicholas Wapshott:

Yellen shows her hand

The difference between the Federal Reserve Board of Chairwoman Janet Yellen and that of her immediate predecessor Ben Bernanke is becoming clear. No more so than in their approach to the problem of joblessness.

Bernanke made clear that in the post-2008 economy, his principal goal was the creation of jobs, not curbing inflation. He settled on a figure, 6.5 percent unemployment, as the threshold that would guide his actions.

from Nicholas Wapshott:

The EU-U.S. love-hate relationship

The elaborate gavotte between the American and European economies continues.

While the Federal Reserve has begun to wind down its controversial quantitative easing (QE) program, the European Central Bank (ECB) the federal reserve of the eurozone, has announced it is considering a QE program of its own.

It is a belated acknowledgement, if not an outright admission, from Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, that five years of the European Union’s austerity policy has failed to lift the eurozone nations out of the economic mire. The ECB has presided over a wholly unnecessary triple-dip recession in the eurozone and sparked a bitter rift between the German-dominated European Union bureaucracy and the Mediterranean nations that must endure the rigors imposed from Brussels. All to little avail.

from The Great Debate:

Obama: Ineffectually Challenged

President Barack Obama is in a funk. Americans are coming to see the president as ineffectual. That is a dangerous perception.

Obama's job approval rating is at risk of dropping below 40 percent. Democrats may lose their majority in the Senate this fall. It may be difficult for the president to accomplish anything during his last two years.

from Nicholas Wapshott:

On jobs: Be bold, Obama

President Barack Obama’s State of the Union was all about jobs. He said the word 23 times, often congratulating himself on having helped create 4 million. He urged a “year of action” to make more jobs, raise wages and create opportunities for social mobility. Then he set out on a jobs tour to persuade large companies to start hiring and pay more.

But if we assume the Tea Party-dominated House of Representatives is not going to help him here and will block any new public borrowing for infrastructure projects, what is the president to do?

from Expert Zone:

How much will U.S. recovery help India?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a prolonged slowdown, the U.S. economy is finally showing signs of recovery though much of it comes from investment in inventories and may not be sustained at the present high rate.

The United States is the largest economy with a share of more than 22 percent in the world GDP. Naturally, even small changes in its behaviour have a perceptible impact worldwide. To India, the United States counts for a lot, although possibly less than it does for China.

from MuniLand:

Are local governments really recovering?

Janney Montgomery director and credit analyst Tom Kozlik issued a short research piece that highlighted U.S. Census data for local government revenues. The Census data suggests that local governments, in aggregate, will continue to face a difficult time in years ahead because revenues have flattened since 2009. Here is Kozlik’s chart, which maps the Census data:

Moody’s changed its view of local governments to stable from negative in a December report for the first time in four years, but cautioned that the credit quality of local governments was not as steady or solid as it had been prior to the recession:

from Breakingviews:

GOP’s best bargaining tactic: raise debt ceiling

By Daniel Indiviglio
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Congressional Republicans might want to consider a new bargaining tactic: raising the debt ceiling. Using the prospect of imminent default to force the White House to a compromise on the government shutdown isn’t working. Removing it from the table would show that the GOP can be reasonable – and allow the funding debate to rage without roiling global financial markets.

from Breakingviews:

Billionaire offers YouTube clue to U.S. torpor

By Martin Hutchinson
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Ray Dalio is offering a YouTube clue to U.S. economic torpor. The billionaire founder of the $150 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates argues that Uncle Sam is stuck in a deleveraging recession. Federal Reserve policy largesse, meanwhile, keeps prices stable as debt declines. It’s a useful idea.

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