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from Breakingviews:

A Van Winkle return to Davos and to real problems

By Rob Cox The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.It was well past midnight in late January 2000 when an investment banking contact called my Davos hotel room to share the latest details on Vodafone’s hostile bid for Mannesmann. That was news, but the huge hostile takeover was no longer the largest deal in history. It had been displaced a few weeks earlier by the agreed merger of AOL and Time Warner. Such was the talk of the World Economic Forum. The great and the powerful had gathered together to celebrate the success of business and, especially, of finance.

Exuberance over technology and venture capital was almost limitless back in 2000, thanks to the seemingly limitless rise of the tech stocks. Dotcom startups were all the rage. When Japanese Internet mogul Masayoshi Son finished one panel, he was assailed by a gaggle of entrepreneurs waving business plans for him to peruse. In full disclosure, this columnist two weeks later signed up to establish the online financial commentary business that eventually became Reuters Breakingviews.

Coming back to this gathering 12 years later is a Rip Van Winklerian experience. The old world and its little worries look positively quaint. Back then, at what in retrospect proved to be the height of the Great Moderation, business was booming, the Nasdaq still had another 20 percent or so to climb, companies were merging like mad; everything looked rosy. President Bill Clinton parachuted in to give a victory lap. Even the demonstrations that took place against neoliberalism and world trade now look quaint. Defacing a McDonald’s is a far cry from overthrowing governments.

The economic moderation turned out to be built on financial excess. That AOL deal – hailed as visionary by all the delegates of 2000 – has become the poster child for foolish corporate finance. The Nasdaq is a third lower than 12 years ago (before adjusting for inflation). And the banks – what can I say? From triumph to tribulation.

The political world also looks much more treacherous. Geopolitics has not yielded to the irresistible forward march of free market capitalism, and peace no longer looks like something to be taken for granted. The 9/11 attacks spawned wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – the kinds of conflicts that in 2000 were supposed to be a thing of the past.

The World Economic Forum has changed with the times. The rise of the BRICs has brought greater diversity to the audience, which is a good thing. It has also brought many more people – so many, in fact, the organizers have expanded their caste system. There is now a dizzying number of different badges, each offering differing levels of access and status. It’s much easier to be here and still be excluded from the elite – much like the feeling of many of the world’s dispossessed.

The most striking difference, though, is in the increased complexity and severity of the questions confronting the collection of top business people, politicians, investors and academics. Europe’s sovereign debt crisis keeps trundling forward, bringing to the fore thorny challenges to sovereignty, the role of central banks and the solvency of nations. Instead of Clinton smiling from the podium, this year’s keynote address came from the troubled German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the leader with the most cards at the debt crisis table.

from Anthony De Rosa:

The Davos Rookie

I'm going to level with you. I have little more than a vague idea of what I've gotten myself into here. An assembly of heads of state, titans of industry, the cliched 1%. I feel a bit like a fish out of water. What on earth is someone like me going to do among these power brokers?

I've got questions, for sure. What, if anything, has been accomplished as a result of the World Economic Forum since its inception? Going by Mohamed El-Erian's assessment, it seems not much. I don't say this out of malice. It seems like a well-intentioned idea to bring together people who have the power to effect change in the world. Nobody is expecting them to solve the euro zone crisis over the course of a week, but have they seized that opportunity because of coming here? I arrive with an open mind but a skeptical pair of eyes.

Are there examples we can point to where a Davos meeting led to the brokering of some improvement in the world? Perhaps we may never know. Many meetings here happen behind closed doors, out of the sight of nosy press like me.

It's far easier today than ever before for people to tap into what is occuring in nearly any part of the world, directly from the people living there, without the filter of media or government. It's easier for the people within those same places to communicate and organize among themselves. People who were previously unseen and unheard now have a voice. It's a very disruptive development for gatekeepers. Some may even be wondering if they really hold as much power as they think.

The upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa over the last year has proven, once more, that leaders are only as in control as the people they govern allow them to be. That may sound a bit hyperbolic, as things are still very much in flux, but few predicted how far the citizens of these countries have already come, how many leaders would fall, and with potentially more on the way.

Maybe that's the lesson those at the WEF should heed: to consider listening a bit harder not just to their fellow attendees, but to the people they've left behind.

from The Great Debate:

Is the world any closer to closing the gender gap?

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is out with its 6th annual Global Gender Gap report. The report measures how equitably countries are distributing their resources between women and men -- regardless of their level of resources.

"By and large, the trends are positive," one of the authors of the report Saadia Zahidi, who is the senior director at WEF, told correspondent Reuters Michelle Nichols. "85% of the 135 countries listed have made progress."

Over the last six years, the gaps in health and education between men and women have been closed by 96% and 93%, respectively. However, the gaps in economic participation and political empowerment are much greater -- 59% and 18%, respectively, over the last six years.

"While women are as healthy and educated as men, they're clearly not being channeled into the economy or decision making structures," Zahidi said.

Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Ireland are ranked as the top five countries while Saudi Arabia, Mali, Pakistan, Chad and Yemen are at the very bottom.

Why so many Nordic countries at the top? Zahidi says they have a long history of equality between women and men and, additionally, have removed the barriers to economic participation of women by making it possible to combine family and work. But gender equality doesn't have to be a luxury good. In fact, if poor countries make it a part of their development they can actually grow faster, says Zahidi.

from Davos Notebook:

Davos: Can social media make a difference?

The Davos meeting organisers have made a huge push into social media this year. From interviews on Facebook to geo-location services using Foursquare, it’s an impressive use of social media tools to bring the closed-shop that is the WEF to the masses.

In the video clip below, Reuters correspondent and Davos veteran Ben Hirschler shares his thoughts on the impact this will have on this year’s WEF.

“They’ve made a big effort to show their involvement with the outside world,” he says. “The question is… to what extent is this just PR eye-wash and to what extent is it something serious?”

from Davos Notebook:

Davos fails to grab the attention of angry protesters

The days when anti-capitalist protesters could rampage through Switzerland's financial capital Zurich in rage at the Davos talkfest 100 miles (150 km) to the east are long gone.

A couple of hundred anti-globalisation activists managed to rally in the nearby town of St. Gallen on Saturday against the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum opening this week. Braving a vicious north-east wind, they assembled near the station then marched peacefully through the centre of town, barely disrupting the good burghers as they went about their weekend shopping. At the front of the demo a large red banner proclaimed: "Take the future from the capitalists - Smash the WEF".

The mostly young demonstrators pulled a cart festooned with anti-capitalist slogans, and beat drums and lit crackers to keep time. The march went off peacefully.

Is it a sign of the fading relevance of the world's greatest networking event? Just as the forum has failed to attract the political leaders of the emerging economies, so it no longer appears to grab the attention of the anarchist and alternative movements.

from Davos Notebook:

Why “generation next” matters at Davos

-- Trevor Dougherty is a student and activist and will attend the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos as a representative of the Global Changemakers. He's also the youngest American ever to attend the Davos meeting. --

Most of the sessions at the WEF's annual conference in Davos will focus on the future, and how it can be bettered, so, naturally, a topic of discussion is the “next generation.” How will their consumption patterns change? How will they contribute to society? How will they use technology? How will they lead?

Among the Davos crowd, better known for its executives and politicians, is a group of people who can offer real insight to these questions. They possess a profound knowledge of “kids these days,” because, drum roll please, that is exactly what they are. Meet the British Council’s Global Changemakers, five teenagers selected from five different countries to represent young people at the World Economic Forum. My name is Trevor, and I am one of them.

At Davos, we will have speaking roles in many of the Forum’s official sessions. As the only people under twenty at the event, the five of us feel a heavy weight on our shoulders to accurately express “youth concerns.” But I think that the established leaders converging at Davos should also have a considerable weight on them to listen to us. Our voices may not be as impactful as those of CEOs and heads of state, but I hope that they may help inform, at least in part, important decisions made by these individuals.

What will I tell them?  Well, I worry that, because of our self-indulgent use of modern communication technologies, we may be seen as an apathetic generation. My focus at this year’s meeting will be to discuss how we can alter the behavioral patterns that create this perception. I am passionate about improving how the world uses new media, and my greatest hope is to discuss how this could be implemented with those in charge of leading social networks. I am a panelist for The Social Network Addiction and Young People versus Old Models sessions, and will be talking about social media during my presentation at the Global Changemakers IdeasLab.

We have all just arrived in Zurich, where a team from the British Council’s Bern office will be training us and preparing us for the bright lights before we head to Davos next week. The WEF, in inviting us to their Annual Meeting, has recognized that representatives of “generation next” should be included in the discussion of global issues for more meaningful progress to be made. Hopefully, through our involvement, they will recognize that we are no longer “next” but “now.”

You can follow Trevor's progress at Davos here, on Twitter.

from Davos Notebook:

Jargon hunting at Davos 2011

The annual shindig of the great and good from the corporate, banking and political worlds in Davos is always a rich hunting ground for connoisseurs of business jargon.

This year's meeting of the World Economic Forum is no exception.

The theme of the meeting is "Shared norms for the new reality" -- which translated means the world has got a lot nastier, or at least different, and how do we deal with all the new threats?

Speaking from the WEF's Dr. Evil-style headquarters overlooking Lake Geneva, forum founder and chairman Klaus Schwab said the world was now facing "global burn-out syndrome", whose symptoms, he told a news conference, include lethargy, withdrawal, and a tendency to be reactive and rely on firefighting rather than being proactive and thinking strategically.

The WEF's answer to the web of 37 risks it has identified threatening the world is to launch the "global risk response network", which will allow corporate chief risk officers to work together with government risk experts on solving the problem.

In any case, the answers will be found in the dialogue between business, governments and civil society, for which the forum can provide a conducive setting.

Or in Professor Schwab's words: "What we need is a multi-stakeholder platform."

from Davos Notebook:

Cherchez La Femme at Davos

-- Elisabeth Kelan is lecturer in the Department of Management at King’s College London. The opinions expressed are her own. --

The World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes insightful research on gender in business, the economy and politics. Every year, for instance, the WEF releases a Gender Gap Report that measures how countries are doing in regards to  gender equality.

This always stood in sharp contrast to the annual meeting in Davos itself, where spotting a female face in the crowd was easier said than done. It might come as a surprise (then again, it might not), but  one of the most influential meetings around the globe has so far taken place with minimal female involvement.

This might be set to change  with the announcement that this year's WEF will impose a gender quota. More specifically, one in five delegates needs to be female.

However, close inspection reveals that this only applies to the 100 so-called 'strategic partner organisations' -- groups which pay for the right to send five delegates to attend the WEF.

Applying a gender quota is a laudable effort, and there is evidence that it works. The success of quotas on company boards in Norway has led other nations, including Spain and France,  to introduce or promise to introduce a similar framework in the future.

In most cases the quota is set at a level higher than one in five (usually around 40 percent), but in the WEF's defence, the 20 percent mark is in line with targets for female executives that some companies such as Deutsche Telekom have set themselves.

from Davos Notebook:

Celebrities and handshakes – is the WEF really working?

-Mark Kobayashi-Hillary is a British author, blogger, and advisor on technology, globalisation and corporate change, based in São Paulo, Brazil. The opinions expressed are his own.-

The World Economic Forum returns to Davos next week for the annual round of handshakes and backslapping between world leaders and A-list celebrities that aim to solve the major problems of the world. But when this blog (http://blogs.reuters.com/davos/2011/01/13/is-davos-still-relevant/) asked readers if the annual WEF meeting in Davos is still relevant, more than two-thirds of you said that times have changed and little will be achieved.

That seems a harsh judgement from the blog readers, so I asked my own network of online friends on Twitter (www.twitter.com/markhillary) and Facebook what they think.

Of course, mine is an unscientific survey that no academic could ever support – negative feelings tend to run higher and attract more comment than positive – but my own network agreed that little will be achieved in Davos – a full 100% of people who sent me a comment supported that view.

Some typical responses were: “Davos still counts because no one expects it to do anything”, “Stop the drama... take the hundreds of millions of expenses and develop a hundred target villages [in India]”, “I never noticed it was Davos time because I have yet to read the poor Doctor Who puns in the media”, “annual lame duck sessions that only project and boost their narcissistic, bloated egos....”

The World Economic Forum believes that the only way to create real social and economic change is to get the major decision-makers together so they can plan a future political, economic, social, and technological agenda. In a way, they have a point. Have you ever tried working virtually with people you don’t know? The team in another country that your boss insists you work with. Once you go and meet those same people, share a dinner or meet their family, what happens to your working relationship?

It improves dramatically, just because you met the people and experienced a real interaction with them as fellow humans. That makes for a more efficient workplace where decisions can be taken together. It is natural for all of us to work better and be more agreeable with people we know, rather than the unknown voice at the end of a telephone line or email address.

from Davos Notebook:

Davos 2011: More people, fewer resources, big risk

Among the major issues global leaders will discuss at the upcoming annual World Economic Forum in Davos are the risks associated with the tightening of water, food and energy resources to meet the demands of an increasing global population.

The three interrelated resources impact both global economic growth and geopolitical stability and the Forum’s Global Risks 2011 report warns that “any strategy that focuses on one part of the water-food-energy nexus without considering its interconnections risks serious unintended consequences.”

Three recent news stories illustrate the risks associated with these precious resources.

Water

The situation in Yemen provides a perfect illustration of the growing problem countries face when it comes to fresh water supplies. Yemen’s population is increasing – exploding really. Currently at 23 million, it’s forecast to double in the next 20 years. Thanks to drought and overconsumption, the water is running out and farmers are abandoning their land for the cities.

A nonprofit network and affiliate of the policy think tank Pacific Institute called Circle of Blue offers 19 solutions to the global freshwater crisis here.

Food