from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Under Pressure

September 25, 2015

This is a weird market we’re in. Equities spent a good part of the day under pressure, rebounded late on what was attributed to a wonky note that took an inside baseball view of the recent selloff, fell, and then rose, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen first said explicitly that the Fed plans on raising rates, and then suffered a mild health issue that gave everyone a bit of a scare before doctors said she was okay to continue with her schedule.

from MacroScope:

Yellen faces her biggest test after years of Fed coddling markets

September 23, 2015

A trader works underneath a television screen showing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announcing that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on the floor of the New York Stock ExchangeThey say every top central banker faces a "test," and this may be it for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

from MacroScope:

Patient: Fed may drop the word, not the idea

March 18, 2015

RTR4R4RY.jpgFed Chair Janet Yellen may signal later today that she is no longer patient about when to consider raising rates but any eventual hike is likely to come after June, judging by how many key economic reports so far this year have undercut expectations.

from MacroScope:

Prescient Yellen saw limits of zero Fed interest rates back in 2009

March 4, 2015

yellen.jpgDespite the Federal Reserve's trillions of dollars in newly printed money, workers' wages and overall U.S. inflation have failed to take off since the recession. Longer-term borrowing costs, from 10-year Treasury yields to 30-year home mortgages, have also compressed without any real signs of reversing. While this has perplexed many economists, transcripts of the U.S. central bank's crisis-fighting meetings in 2009 show that Janet Yellen, then the head of the San Francisco Fed, was prescient in warning colleagues of these very problems.

from MacroScope:

The more things change: Fed wrestled with same policy “exit” issues in 2009

March 4, 2015

bernanke2009.jpgThe Federal Reserve faces two big challenges in the months and years ahead: how to finally "liftoff" after more than six years of rock bottom interest rates, and how to begin drawing down its $4.5-trillion balance sheet after three massive rounds of bond purchases. But, it turns out, those questions were being raised at the U.S. central bank as far back as 2009.

from MacroScope:

A week before emerging-market turmoil, a prescient exchange on just how much the Fed cares

January 30, 2014


The last seven days has been a glaring example of fallout from the cross-border carry trade. That's the sort of trade, well known in currency markets, where investors borrow funds in low-rate countries and invest them in higher-rate ones. Some $4 trillion is estimated to have flooded into emerging markets since the 2008 financial crisis to profit off the ultra accommodate policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Now that central banks in developed economies are looking to reverse course and eventually raise rates, that carry trade is unraveling fast, resulting in the brutal sell-off in emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina over the last week.

from MacroScope:

Auto-pilot QE and the Federal Reserve’s taper dilemma

November 26, 2013

 It wasn't supposed to be this way.

When the U.S. Federal Reserve launched its third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, it was hailed as an "open-ended" policy that would last as long as needed. Most important for investors, the pace of the bond buying - which started at a somewhat arbitrary $85 billion per month - would be "data dependent." Especially throughout the spring, officials stressed they were serious about adjusting the dial on QE3 depending on changes in the labor market and broader economy. But as the unemployment rate dropped to 7.3 percent last month from 8.1 percent when the program was launched in September, 2012, the bond-buying has effectively been on auto-pilot for 14 straight months.

from MacroScope:

Yellen selection no surprise to Reuters poll readers

October 10, 2013

President Barack Obama nominating Janet Yellen to head up the U.S. Federal Reserve came as little surprise to market watchers who read Reuters polls.

from MacroScope:

Back when Yellen and Summers had the same boss

August 20, 2013

With all the back-and-forth in the Yellen versus Summers Fed chair showdown, it’s easy to forget that the two once played for the same team – the Clinton administration.

from MacroScope:

Obama’s second chance to reshape the Fed

August 7, 2013

Lost in the bizarre Yellen vs. Summers tug-of-war into which the debate over the next Federal Reserve Chairman has devolved, is the notion that President Barack Obama is getting a second shot at revamping the U.S. central bank.