from Breakingviews:

China fatigued by debt as flexible yuan turns 10

July 21, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions here are his own.

China left the cloistered safety of its dollar peg exactly ten years ago, on July 21, 2005. It was a major step on the journey toward global economic preeminence, and a clear endorsement of market forces. That was then.

from MacroScope:

G7 ministers face full in-tray

By Mike Peacock
May 27, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel talks to Finance Minister Schaeuble during a debate of the Bundestag in Berlin

G7 finance ministers and central bankers gather in Dresden later today for a two-day meeting at an interesting juncture for the world economy.

from MacroScope:

ECB uncertainty

By Mike Peacock
March 28, 2014

For European markets, Germany’s March inflation figure is likely to dominate today. It is forecast to hold at just 1.0 percent. The European Central Bank insists there is no threat of deflation in the currency area although the euro zone number has been in its “danger zone” below 1 percent for five months now.

from MacroScope:

China at a crossroads on yuan internationalization project

By Saikat Chatterjee
September 3, 2013

As China marks the third anniversary of the first ever bond sale by a foreign company denominated in renminbi, questions are rife on what lies next for the offshore yuan market.

from Global Investing:

China data: Lessons from Yongzheng

May 20, 2013
 Is China's data reliable? With official figures showing the Chinese economy grew by 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013, a so-called slowdown or 'soft patch' in the Chinese economy has concerned some marketeers. Whether gross-domestic-product calculations involve macro data or micro data, the overall picture is not so clear, though some say a focus on regional numbers, cement, oil and gas usage would help complement official statistics. Kang Qu, assistant vice president of research at the Bank of China, said at a panel discussion earlier this week organised by the centre for the study of financial innovation, and supported by NowCasting, on calculating official Chinese data there is not so much government focus as in other countries on business confidence indicators but more on GDP prints, which are still under some doubt:
This is a reference when the People's Bank of China makes big decisions.
Difficulty in collating accurate data is perhaps not so surprising, given the rapid urbanisation of the world's second largest economy. Off-beat labour statistics (employing dissimilar methodology to the ILO) are partly skewed due to a large number of temporary registrants that slip the official statistics net. The solution? Jinny Lin at Standard Chartered, who thinks China's real GDP level is more likely around 5.5 percent, suggested this could be taken from the history books. Emperor Yongzheng, China's ruler in the late Qing dynasty, set up an independent body to look at data at the local level, and successfully stemmed tax evasion.

If local data is reliable enough, we should use local data.

from MacroScope:

Yield is king in China’s ‘dim sum’ offshore yuan bond markets

By Saikat Chatterjee
March 21, 2013

 

A return to China's offshore yuan bond markets, or "dim sum” as they are colorfully known in Hong Kong, may be sweet for Gemdale, a mainland property developer. But not all fund managers are smiling. The company raised five-year money at 5.63% amounting to 2 billion yuan. Not bad, considering that last July, it raised a lesser sum for a shorter tenor while coughing up nearly double of what it paid this time around. Add the fact that it did so by keeping to the same weak bond covenant and Gemdale seems to have pulled off a stunner.

from Breakingviews:

China FX swap may blur Bank of England mandate

January 28, 2013

By Peter Thal Larsen

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist.  The opinions expressed are his own.

from MacroScope:

The risk from China’s shadow banks

June 7, 2012

Many blame America’s shadow banking system, where dangers lurked away from the scrutiny of complacent regulators, for the massive financial crisis of 2008-2009. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in a speech on Thursday that he is now worried about the risks to China from its own version of the shadow banks.

from MacroScope:

Manifest currency? U.S. dollar’s global dominance not set in stone

May 23, 2012

Incumbency, it is often said, confers many advantages.

Sitting U.S. presidents certainly have reaped its benefits – in the past 80 years, only three have been unseated.

from Breakingviews:

Iran’s yuan oil payments won’t catch on, yet

May 9, 2012

By Una Galani

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.