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November 28th, 2007

Market rally - Is it for real?

Posted by: Leah Eichler
Tags: Ask, from Reuters.com

NYSE
Stocks rallied for a second day as the financial sector  stocks extended their comeback. Remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn raised hopes of an interest rate cut.

Are the banks out of the woods? How long do you think the rally will last?

13 comments so far

I feel the phrase were looking for is “Dead Lion Bounce”

Interestingly, once the IRS discovers they have been completely “Hoodwinked” by the Corporate Writdowns, writeoffs or “deductions” of their poor real estate investments, the IRS will be be staring at a multi-trillion dollar corporate “deduction” they havn’t planned for, and will be wondering how these ” Corporate accountants” were so saavy and “Bold” to do it.

If I were the IRS, I would suggest they scrutinize every Company writedown of all ill-begotten realestate investment deductions because ultimately they will be stuck “holding the Bag” of no money or income to run this country with.

It’s a real shame the people you trust with your money juggle it with such disregard. I feel it’s jail time for the ratings companies and insurance company execs who let this “slide” and looked the other way and should have been watching our 6 to “insure” those Companies played by the rules of proper lending practices.

- Posted by Justin Thought

As in August we hit almost exactly 10% then rebounded. One could suggest this is nefarious manipulation, and I love conspiracy theories, but I wonder if we’re actually seeing the collective impact of machine- and algorithm-led trading. We hit the technical trigger and buying programs kicked in. Just a guess, which is frankly as good as what you get on CNBC or anywhere else.

- Posted by David

It is amazing that the market is reacting so strongly to one remark. Neither one man flapping his gums nor an interest rate cut by the Fed will fix the fundamental problems with the economy - indeed a rate cut could easily make things worse.

- Posted by Gene

The market has been such a rollercoaster, it’s hard to believe that what goes up will not come down.

- Posted by Patrick

While I would agree that some trading programs would be triggered by the “correction” hitting 10%, it would be a very poorly programed plan that kept buying after noon EST today (and yet they are apparently still buying). It could have something to do with covering shorts as well, but the kind of in and out flows of capital we’ve seen are far more systemic. With trillions of dollars going “poof” in housing values and the various instruments associated with them, it is hard to fathom that the market will sustain this level for very long.

- Posted by Gene

I think it funny that the Fed pretends this “turbulence” is the result of natural business cycles, when it is obvious its the Fed’s secretive ways with no one knowing what rate scheme they will concoct next.

- Posted by Patrick S

the market is not stable at -10% . People looks the past profits to guess the next profits. so, till profits of the companies outside financials are not under real pressure by a general slowdown, the market is due to bounce to 1500 easily. There was too much pessimism recently, easy to see with the divergences on oscillators and inverted HS on Nikkey. The job of everybody is to buy stocks, not to sell them ! At the last Fed , SP was at 1485. so….

- Posted by yves C

This may be the last day the waves pickup the potatoes. But many new snouts will turn into the box

- Posted by Jackson Potato Peal

Are the banks out of the woods?

No, I’m afraid they haven’t passed the trough quite yet. The tricky situation that we’re in has given more than ample indication that delinquencies have not reached their peak, while home prices will continue to sag. To get out of this mess, the continued flow of available credit is an important variable to follow.

The fate of this rally obviously depends upon expectations of what the Fed will do, and not upon the fundamentals of the economy. The latter is precisely why I don’t believe this rally will last very long at all. For even if the Fed were to further cut rates, I think it’s clear that at this point, lower rates do not quite equal a concrete, visible, turnaround. And that is why stocks may enjoy a temporary run up, only to be depressed once again.

- Posted by Aleks

It seems investors are pricing stocks just like credit rating agencies rated sub-prime mortgage SIVs…

Fed rate is an important element of valuation but for the last couple of years it has been given way, waaay too much attention.

- Posted by Juan

the market down 10% housing down recession looming? arnt we in a recession now? when the usd rises this means we are in recession as the $ becomes more valuable this shows the dollar buys more. rates cuts will not change any thing as the $ is getting harder to get, less borrowings to get. in all traders will send you broke dont follow the market as a guide to the economy

- Posted by jerry

For the past 12 years the stock market has closely tracked the housing market, except recently. If the correlation comes back to norm the market would drop dramatically.

The single family index has dropped 50% in a year, far more than the S&P.

What would sever the linkage? Major and rapid interest rate drops? We’ll see.

- Posted by george mitchell

Where is the liquidity problem? If a rumor of an interest rate cut can stimulate the stock market to a 350 point gain where is the liquidity problem? Apparantly, someone has alot of cash!

- Posted by RC

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