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July 7th, 2009

Pope urges bold world economic reform before G8 summit

Posted by: Tom Heneghan

popePope Benedict issued an ambitious call to reform the way the world works on Tuesday shortly before its most powerful leaders meet at the G8 summit in Italy. His latest encyclical, entitled "Charity in Truth," presents a long list of steps he thinks are needed to overcome the financial crisis and shift economic activity from the profit motive to a goal of solidarity of all people.

Following are some of his proposals. The italics are from the original text. Do you think they are realistic food for thought or idealistic notions with no hope of being put into practice?

  • "There is urgent need of a true world political authority. .. to manage the global economy; to revive economies hit by the crisis; to avoid any deterioration of the present crisis and the greater imbalances that would result; to bring about integral and timely disarmament, food security and peace; to guarantee the protection of the environment and to regulate migration... such an authority would need to be universally recognized and to be vested with the effective power to ensure security for all, regard for justice, and respect for rights."
  • The economy needs ethics in order to function correctly - not any ethics whatsoever, but an ethics which is people-centred..."
  • "Financiers must rediscover the genuinely ethical foundation of their activity, so as not to abuse the sophisticated instruments which can serve to betray the interests of savers. Right intention, transparency, and the search for positive results are mutually compatible and must never be detached from one another."
  • "Without doubt, one of the greatest risks for businesses is that they are almost exclusively answerable to their investors, thereby limiting their social value... there is nevertheless a growing conviction that business management cannot concern itself only with the interests of the proprietors, but must also assume responsibility for all the other stakeholders who contribute to the life of the business: the workers, the clients, the suppliers of various elements of production, the community of reference... What should be avoided is a speculative use of financial resources that yields to the temptation of seeking only short-term profit, without regard for the long-term sustainability of the enterprise, its benefit to the real economy and attention to the advancement, in suitable and appropriate ways, of further economic initiatives in countries in need of development."
  • "One possible approach to development aid would be to apply effectively what is known as fiscal subsidiarity, allowing citizens to decide how to allocate a portion of the taxes they pay to the State."
(Photo: Pope Bendict, 1 July 2009/Tony Gentile)

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July 3rd, 2009

It’s the Summer of L-U-V

Posted by: Stella Dawson

It's starting to look like the Summer of Love. Two reasons: The recovery is taking on a L-U-V shape globally, and it's going to require huge amounts of love and nurturing to keep growth alive.

  • L stands for Europe, where slowness to confront deep damage and write down the remaining $500 billion odd in bad bank debt, mean rebuilding will be protracted and painful.
  • The United States sports a U, bouncing along bottom right. But its financial giants swallowed harsh medicine early and the U.S. has the flexibility to stage an impressive rebound, if not undone by a fast-rising jobless rate at 9.5 percent and heavily indebted consumers.
  • V stands for Asia (ex Japan), the surprise region showing resiliency, thanks to its rapid Q4/Q1 inventory workdown and huge infrastructure spend by China.

Like the Summer of Love 41 years ago, it is a drug-fueled affair. G20 governments are peddling $820 billion in stimulus this year, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP. Central bankers are spending even more. The Fed has doubled its balance sheet to $2.04 trillion the past 12 months.

These actions might have cushioned a severe cyclical downturn but the structural adjustment to a world of costlier credit is only just beginning.

Will politicians and central bankers have the wisdom or the stomach to keep the drug supply going long enough to prevent L-U-V from turning into an ugly W?

May 13th, 2009

Economy: Getting better or just less bad?

Posted by: Jeremy Gaunt

In much the same way that analysts have been debating whether equities are in a bear market rally or a new bull market, economists now have to deal with the question of whether the global economy is just bottoming out or is now actually recovering. The two things are obviously linked as BlackRock equities chief Bob Doll indicated when he said this week that equity markets will require the economic backdrop to actually improve rather than simply grow less bad if rises are to be sustained.

The less-dreadful-than-feared syndrome has been around for some time. U.S. markets, for example, found themselves cheering the loss of  539,000 jobs in April simply because its was the smallest since October and looked to be an improvement.

But talk of green shoots, a somewhat overused euphemism for the start of economic revival, has also been on the increase: European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke on Monday about the pick-up in GDP evident in certain areas; China said its efforts to boost growth were working; and a lot of institutional investors are acting as if the worst is over.

So, bottoming out or on the way up?  Comments below please.

(Reuters photo: Danish Ishmail)

May 8th, 2009

Jobs: Bad news or good sign?

Posted by: Mario Di Simine

If you’re one of the 539,000 people who lost their job last month, do you have reason to be hopeful today? The stock market seems to think so. And many of those who work in the financial sector say the April jobless report, which included an unemployment rate at a quarter-century high around 9 percent, indicates the economy is near bottom. One analyst said, “May looks much more favorable”; said another: “You can make the case that the panic layoffs that we saw at the turn of the year are starting to ease.”

Not everyone was optimistic. “The big question is has the peak in job losses hit? I am somewhat skeptical that we have seen the absolute worst of it, but you can’t rule that out,” said Jay Mueller, a senior portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management.

What do you think? When it comes to job losses, is the worst behind us?

February 25th, 2009

Your take on Obama’s address to Congress

Posted by: Lara Hertel
President Obama delivered his first major speech before a joint session of Congress, walking a fine line between frankness about the state of the U.S. economy and optimism about its recovery. Did you find his speech reassuring? Do you think the U.S. will emerge “stronger than before”? Share your thoughts below.
January 13th, 2009

Are you postponing your retirement?

Posted by: Mario Di Simine
Most Americans felt investment pain in 2008 as the value of retirement accounts and other assets dropped along with the economy. But older Americans are feeling particularly hard-hit by the financial crisis and many now say they must now postpone their retirement, according to a survey by the AARP, which represents older Americans. The survey, released on Friday, showed 57 percent of those who were employed or looking for work and who lost money in their investments over the past year expected to delay retirement and work longer. It also found 36 percent of workers had stopped putting money into their retirement accounts in the past 12 months.

Have you decided to postpone retirement because of investment losses? How much longer will you have to work to afford retirement? Is the concept of retirement a thing of the past?

January 9th, 2009

Jobs: How bad will it get?

Posted by: Mario Di Simine

The economy lost over half a million jobs in December and shed the greatest number of workers in 2008 since the end of World War II. The grim news didn’t stop there: the unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent, the highest in 16 years. Many analysts say it will only get worse before it gets better.

“The job situation is ugly and is going to get uglier. There’s no reason to expect hiring anytime in the next three to six months,” said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York. Tempus Consulting’s Matt Esteve agrees. “No matter how you look at it, those are dismal numbers,” he said.

How does all this make you feel about the nation’s economy and your own personal job and financial situation? More importantly, how is the economic environment making you change your behavior?

On the wider stage, do you think the dire unemployment picture will be President George W. Bush’s legacy and will it get better under President-elect Barack Obama?

December 3rd, 2008

Any light in that tunnel?

Posted by: Mario Di Simine

Private employers are slashing jobs and the services sector, which powers most of the economy, is in its worst slump ever. “It’s impossible to find any ray of light here,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis, Missouri, said of the job losses last month.

With the government working to bail out banks, and possibly automakers, and with a top adviser to President-elect Barack Obama underscoring the need for an economic stimulus package, do you think things will get better and when?

December 2nd, 2008

Place your bets on 2009’s top stories

Posted by: Richard Baum

As part of our Year in Review package, we’re inviting you to place a virtual bet on the outcome of what we think will be some of the top stories in 2009. Clicking on one of the questions below will take you to the Hubdub news prediction site, where you can place a bet on the outcome and peruse other questions set by Reuters.

The graphs below reflect the current betting by the Hubdub community. We’re also inviting you to set your own questions on 2009 events, either via Hubdub or via the comments field below. We’ll feature the best ones here and add more of our own questions in coming days. If you create a 2009 question on Hubdub, you can flag it to us by sending a challenge to the Reuters account. We’re 100 percent likely to check it out.

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July 29th, 2008

WTO talks collapse — does it matter?

Posted by: Mario Di Simine

Doha talks collapseNine days of intense talks in Geneva weren’t enough to forge a breakthrough in what remains an elusive deal in the World Trade Organization’s Doha round to open up global trade. The latest talks collapsed on Tuesday after the United States and India failed to find a compromise on measures intended to help poor countries protect their farmers against import surges, a diplomat said.One analyst said the failure could hurt U.S. exports, and therefore the economy and the dollar. Amid the current energy, food and financial crises, some analysts also said the failure of the talks would be a blow to the global economy.

Ministers could come back after the summer break for one last roll of the dice but some analysts said any deal would now likely be years away. Despite the latest failure, the United States said it remained committed to the Doha talks. “This is not a time to talk about a round collapsing,” U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab told reporters. “The U.S. commitments remain on the table, awaiting reciprocal responses.”

The question is, is it worth it? Do you think a global trade deal would have a significant impact on the economy? Would you be better off or worse? Send us your comments.