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from Global Investing:

RIP 2008-2009

It was down, down, down in 2008 and up, up , up in 2009. So what will 2010 bring?

from Global Investing:

Are investors building for a fall?

Reuters has taken its monthly snapshot of the investment choices of leading fund management houses across the world. At the end of July, the picture painted was one of investors embracing risk and shutting down their safest holdings.

Equity holdings as a percentage of a typical balanced portfolio were at their highest since the end of August last year, just a couple of weeks before Lehman Brothers collapsed. Here is what has been happening to equity holdings this year: 

At the same time, cash holdings have been cut back drastically. They are now at a level last seen in May 2007.  Here's what that looks like:

Bonds offers a more mixed picture, but the latest month still shows a retreat that would be typical of roaring risk appetite:

from Global Investing:

Bear market rally/Bull market beginning?

Another month and another Reuters asset allocation poll. This time saw investors in United States, Europe and Japan lifting their equity holdings and cutting back slightly on bonds.  Fits with what has been happening on global financial markets, where MSCI's main world stock index is heading for its best month in at least six years.

So the big question is what happens now. Is this a bear market bounce that will soon dissipate?  Or is it the start of something bullish that will last?

from Global Investing:

Reuters Funds Summit: The end of equities?

Another in our series of one-minute managers. This time it is Ken Kinsey-Quick, who heads up multi manager investing at Thames River Capital. He reckons the old days of buying and holding equities over the long term are gone for good. Is he right?

http://mediacdn.reuters.com/blogs/2009-03-17/15.35.01-5ac85fbc2d5285b81a38cf9e9808e94f.flv

from Global Investing:

Dead cat bounce?

New year can get in the way of understanding what is happening on financial markets. Just because humans measure the year in 12 month tranches, it does not necessarily follow that markets do. Consider world stocks, for example. MSCI's all-country world stock index is often cited as having fallen 43.5 percent in 2008. In fact, long-term investors' losses were a lot worse. From an all-time high on November 1, 2007, to a low on November 28, 2008, the index fell 56.2 percent.

Something similar is happening at the moment. Investors might be focusing on year-to-date losses of around 5.7 percent for the index, but they are doing better than that. The index has gained 14.5 percent from that November 28 low last year.

What is your interpretation? 1) The credit crunch crash lasted for 12 months, hit bottom on November 28 and stocks are now recovering or 2) We have just had a dead cat bounce.