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July 3rd, 2009

It’s the Summer of L-U-V

Posted by: Stella Dawson

It's starting to look like the Summer of Love. Two reasons: The recovery is taking on a L-U-V shape globally, and it's going to require huge amounts of love and nurturing to keep growth alive.

  • L stands for Europe, where slowness to confront deep damage and write down the remaining $500 billion odd in bad bank debt, mean rebuilding will be protracted and painful.
  • The United States sports a U, bouncing along bottom right. But its financial giants swallowed harsh medicine early and the U.S. has the flexibility to stage an impressive rebound, if not undone by a fast-rising jobless rate at 9.5 percent and heavily indebted consumers.
  • V stands for Asia (ex Japan), the surprise region showing resiliency, thanks to its rapid Q4/Q1 inventory workdown and huge infrastructure spend by China.

Like the Summer of Love 41 years ago, it is a drug-fueled affair. G20 governments are peddling $820 billion in stimulus this year, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP. Central bankers are spending even more. The Fed has doubled its balance sheet to $2.04 trillion the past 12 months.

These actions might have cushioned a severe cyclical downturn but the structural adjustment to a world of costlier credit is only just beginning.

Will politicians and central bankers have the wisdom or the stomach to keep the drug supply going long enough to prevent L-U-V from turning into an ugly W?

April 27th, 2009

Has swine flu made you change your ways?

Posted by: Claire Sibonney

A couple wearing mask wait for their relatives to arrive from Mexico at Sao Paulo's international airport

There are fears that a swine flu outbreak that has leapfrogged from Mexico, across North America and into Europe could become a global pandemic,  rekindling memories of the SARS crisis that caused widespread turmoil six years ago.

The flu virus spreads quickly between humans and although it has so far only killed people in Mexico, governments across the world are taking measures to try to reduce its impact.

As the number of cases increases, what have you done to protect yourself? Have you stocked up on hand sanitizer, called in sick, or opted to walk to work instead of taking public transportation? Have you had to cancel travel plans or are you going about your life business as usual?

Share your reactions.

July 24th, 2008

Can a new president repair relations with Europe?

Posted by: Solarina Ho

A man holds a banner reading 'Obama For Chancellor' before a speech of Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama during his visit in Berlin July 24, 2008.

Presidential candidate Barack Obama spoke at the “Victory Column” in Berlin’s Tiergarten park in front of thousands of Germans and tourists in his only formal address during his week-long foreign tour. He called on Europe to stand by the United States in bringing stability to Afghanistan and confronting other threats from climate change to nuclear proliferation.

Relations between the United States and Germany reached a post-war low under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who strongly opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq. He said Germany would “not click its heels” and follow President Bush into war — a position that tapped into wells of German pacifism but infuriated Bush. But Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up behind the Wall in the communist East, has worked hard to repair ties with the U.S. and has emerged as one of Bush’s closest allies in Europe.

Barack Obama and Angel MerkelObama and Merkel met for the first time on Thursday and touched on Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Middle East peace, climate change and the global economy during their talk.

A Pew Research Center poll showed Germans favor Obama over John McCain by a 49 point margin. But some German officials have said Obama risks disappointing Europeans because their expectations are so high.

Can a new president repair relations with Europe?

For the full article on Barack Obama’s speech in Berlin, click here.

For full election coverage, click here.

(Pictured above: A man holds a banner reading ‘Obama For Chancellor’ before a speech of Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama during his visit in Berlin July 24, 2008. REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz)

(Pictured right: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama poses with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the chancellery in Berlin, in front of Reichstag building, July 24, 2008. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke)