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from MacroScope:

Did France cause The Great Depression?

Economist Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College has stirred up a bit of a fuss by concluding in some academic research that it was France, not the United States, that was most to blame for The Great Depression.

Irwin's theory, in a paper posted here by the National Bureau of Economic Research, is that France created an artificial shortage of gold reserves when it increased its share from 7 percent to 27 percent between 1927 and 1932.  Because major currencies at the time were backed by gold under the Gold Standard, this put other countries under enormous deflationary pressure.

To prove his point, Irwin ran a model looking at what would have happened without the French move. The results:

Counterfactual simulations indicate that world prices would have increased slightly between 1929 and 1933, instead of declining calamitously.

All this runs counter to the traditional finger-pointing for The Great Depression, which has it that the U.S Federal Reserve tipped the world into the economic abyss by tightening monetary policy.

Irwin does not let the Fed totally off the hook, however. He concludes that France was "somewhat more" to blame than the United States for the worldwide deflation of 1929-33 and that the deflation could have been avoided if central banks had simply maintained things as they were in 1928.

Should Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke be reappointed?

For Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, 2009 may be a tough year as political battles pile on top of tough economic challenges.

Bernanke must juggle a host of problems as he tries to revive the economy. With the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.4 percent and still climbing, he faces the challenge of recovering from an 18-month-old recession with unconventional policies that some worry will ignite inflation.

On the political front, he has the daunting task of convincing Congress the Fed deserves a leading role in a restructured financial oversight system even as he addresses criticism of Fed failings before the financial collapse and some actions since.

Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd said giving the Fed more authority “is like having a parent giving his son a bigger, faster car, right after he crashed the family station wagon.”

Still, economists give Bernanke an 8 out of 10 for his handling of the economic crisis, according to a Reuters poll and he has the support of Congress members who value his steady hand during the crisis. President Obama said “he has done a fine job under the circumstances.”

The end of his term is just six months away — do you think he deserves to win another four years running the Federal Reserve?

Money, money everywhere …except in your pocket?

There’s lots of money sloshing around the financial system these days. The Federal Reserve has established a target range of 0-0.25 percent for its key rate, bringing it closer to unconventional action to lift the economy out of a year-long recession.

From Washington, the first package aimed at rescuing the credit crisis-hit banking sector amounted to $700 billion. Treasury can use only half of that amount and it has already pledged all but $15 billion of it. The Senate has refused to pass a $14 billion rescue package for Detroit’s three major car companies last week, leaving it in the hands of the Bush administration to work out a deal.

So far, the names that are on the receiving end of all the cash — AIG, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and if a deal can be made, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler — are all very big companies.

The Fed’s latest move could help funnel some cash to the ordinary folks at the helm of the economic ship. What do you think, will any of the money flooding the financial system reach smaller companies or other borrowers? If you’re an individual looking for more cash, are you having trouble and do you think help is on the way?