AxisMundi Jerusalem
Inside Israel and the Palestinian Territories
Israeli rhetoric on Iran can lack consistency
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Veiled threats require calibration. Too explicit, and they risk spilling over into uncontrolled confrontation. Too elliptical, and their impact might be lost entirely.
When it comes to Israel’s regular hints that it could attack Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent them producing a bomb, there’s another liability: boredom and incredulity at all the repetition.
In what seems to have been an attempt to vary the message, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made two sets of public remarks this month which held seeds of self-contradiction.
Addressing a visiting French delegation ahead of Israel’s Feb. 10 election, he said no Israeli government would “tolerate” a nuclear-armed Iran. The implication was that, no matter what the political stripe of the next ruling coalition, it would be willing to undertake all action, including go-it-alone air strikes, against the Iranians.
While the no-tolerance theme reappeared in a speech Olmert gave a North American Jewish group on Sunday, this time he sounded far more solicitous of Western efforts to talk Iran — which denies seeking nuclear weapons — into curbing its uranium enrichment.
“I have no doubt that new American President Barack Obama will stick to the position, that had been confirmed to me many times by the (former U.S.) president and vice president, that America will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. I am sure America will do everything it can to prevent this, together with Israel,” Olmert said.
“Israel will not act alone as the leader in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power.”
The Obama administration favours a ”carrot and stick” strategy of diplomatic overtures toward Tehran combined with the threat of tougher trade sanctions, and Washington has also said the military option remains available. Israel is keen to appear in sync with its U.S. ally.
Expert opinion is divided on whether Israel, which bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and mounted a similar sortie against Syria in 2007, could take on Iran, whose facilities are numerous, distant and fortified.
The inconsistency of the signals from Israeli officialdom has prompted some independent analysts to suggest that the idea of preemptive strikes is a chimera cultivated to pressure the war-wary West into tackling Iran more forcibly.
Olmert’s spokesman, Mark Regev, said the prime minister’s public comments were consistent with Israeli policies on Iran.
Israel is assumed to have Middle East’s only atomic arsenal.
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I take issue with the last sentence in your article.
There is a published book whose contents state Iran already has nuclear weapons. The book is written by a very credible author with the credentials to know.
I also note that Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal and borders Iran.
Given that Western Intelligence recently appeared to have been caught flat-footed concerning the Iranian ability to launch satellites I suggest that Iran needs to be dealt with the respect a nuclear power deserves whether one likes the present Iranian regime or not.
There are sufficient rational political forces within Iran to moderate the regime’s present radical bent.
Miscalculation resulting from rhetoric from Israel or Iran could lead to a disaster of biblical proportions for the entire world.
One hopes for measured sanity on both sides.
“There is a published book whose contents state Iran already has nuclear weapons. The book is written by a very credible author with the credentials to know.”
What book might that be Mr Jones, and who is the author?
He or she must be privy to information that no one else on earth has, including the intelligence services of the UK, USA, Israel and the rest.
Iran is currently enriching uranium to the level of ~3% to ~5% U-235. That level of enrichment is not capable of producing an high explosive yield weapon. Such a weapon would require uranium enriched to level of ~93% U-235.
That 3% – 5% level of enrichment is not even suitable for the manufacture a low explosive yield or so-called “dirty” (neutron) bomb which requires uranium enriched to ~20% U-235 or higher. Does this unnamed author of the unnamed book claim that Iran acquired a functional nuclear weapon from a second party?
“Israel is assumed to have Middle East’s only atomic arsenal.”
Israel is assumed to have Middle East’s only NUCLEAR arsenal.
Let’s use the word nuclear, rather than trying to subtly imply that what Israel has is different than what they accuse Iran of trying to acquire.
Thanks, Mike. At Reuters, we use “atomic” as a synonym for “nuclear” to limit repetition.
There is of course no evidence WHATSOEVER that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, and a lot of evidence that Israeli politicians need a bogeymonster.
Incidentally, Israel’s bombing of the Osirak reactor in IRaq is widely considered to be a failure which speeded-up rather than slowed down Iraq’s nuclear weapons program.
Dimitry, There is a difference between developing nuclear weapons and acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran neither needs 200 nukes, nor can develop nuclear weapons under their program as things stand now. To do that, first, they have to kick out the IAEA inspectors, spend a year enriching Uranium and then more time designing and building a bomb. That would give US and Israel over a year or more to act. At the end, after 2 years, they’ll have a single 1st generation nuke. Big deal. This is no deterrence. When picking on a bunch of warmongering, shoot first fanatics with a history of getting away with murder like the Israelis, it’s the most stupid move Iran could make. However, to build several nukes, all Iran needs is 50 to 100 kgs of fissile material. And we all know, there was plenty of that on the market from Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Russia and other former soviets after the break up, and we already know that Iran bought a dozen nuclear cruise missiles from Ukraine. I agree with Mr, Jones. Iran has nukes and can demonstrate by underground test, when it is necessary. For now, they can do what they do and live up to their NPT obligations.
Well, everything happens for a reason. Though sometimes we do not know exactly what the reason is, one is left with the choice of questioning: “are there alternatives to the present status quo, and if so, what are their ramifications?”
Israel’s regime is elected by its Jewish people, funded by Jewish people all around the world (especially the US) and it is held responsible for that expensive-to-hold-onto land. The Iranians and quite honestly, any unbiased soul would question their occupation.
Now, it is obvious Iran is unlike Syria and Iraq and the other Arab nations in that it “messing with it” could have quite devastating consequences, even for the US, let alone Israel.
So what does this leave Israel with? Empty rhetoric – to keep the funds flowing in order to survive.
I am still waiting for a proof that Iran is making a Nuclear/Atomic bomb. All the so called rambling I have seen is coming from Israel and are baseless.
Please show us any proof that Iran is making a bomb or already has one.
FYI, Israel’s bombing of Iraq’s nuclear facilities pretty much was coordinated among US Israel and Iran.
There is a book called “Iran Iraq war in the Air” by Tom cooper that explains about that attack and how Iran helped in bombing that place.
leave up to the israelis to wine and cry about who has what type of weapons while they walk around with a smile on their faces after butchering inocent civilains with chemcial weapons. I think iran obtaining nuclear weapons is the only viable option to get israel back in line and start behaving.it seems like every 6 months israel finds a way to make it look like they are under attack by some mythical force and seek the world’s pitty. when u don’t sign a nuclear treaty and are known to have a NUCLEAR arsenal, and have in the past launched attacks against civilains using WMDs, the only real danger to anyone is you.
Interesting sydney,
but i beleive this mythical force are Hamas, and Hezbollah. Hamas is funded by Iran. The President of Iran has also threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. I think the real danger is a nuclear Iran.
Israel has atttacked Syria, Lebanon and still occupies the west bank and Gaza. It now threatens Iran who has no nuclear weapons yet Israel has 200 and is not under the IAEA. Who is the biggest threat to world peace and has nuclear weapons and flouts the UN. Israel should not threaten Iran and should not even think about it after what happened in Iraq. Human beings in Iran are just as precious as those in Israel. Its time that the bs and scare tactics by Israel are ignored. Iran has no nuclear weapons program! Even the IAEA is not worried about the imaginary Iranian threat of imminent nukes.
The big ???? is why do we need nuclear wepons when we know it of no use to Humans.
Is this only showoff?? probally made only out of fear or to theaten not to use.
And i don’t think that as of now Iran is afraid nor a threat according to IAEA.
Israel is the only country in the region that occupies the land of its neighbors, does not comply with numerous UN resolutions, has millions of people under occupation, treats Arabs in the occupied land similar to how Hitler treated the Jews, breaks many international laws, threatens to destroy other countries in the region, uses forbidden weapons against civilians (like in Lebanon and Gaza), has the fourth strongest army in the world, owns hundreds of nuclear weapons, and still has the audacity to pretend to be a victim. The strange thing is that the western media machine has been successful in convincing the world that Israel is the victim. This is funny and sad at the same time.
dm,
hamas and hezbollah are creation of israel. they are consequences of israeli occupation, murder, and destruction. both of the those organization were created after israel’s occupation and blockade began. even if iran does fund them so what? the U.S funds the israeli killing machine, so they are just as guilty. keep in mind the WMDs that israel posses and has used against civilians as opposed to the home made rockets that hamas and hezbollah have. hamas and hezbollah do not try and invade israel with helpicopters and fighter jets. the do not use shells and chemical weapons on the civilian population of israel. a few hundred years ago, we had groups just like that in america. they fought against the occupying british forces who wanted to occupy america and take their land. they too were a resistence force who fought for their freedom and today they are called patriots and heros. hammas and hezbollah are no different. their methods are obviously different but the principals are the same. one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.
dm, Obviously you haven’t heard that Israel created Hamas, in order to combat PLO. Which back fired. And obviously you have heard the news that It was Israeli who broke the cease fire times and times again.
More interestingly, you are not obviously aware that 80% all the war in past 60 years have been started by Israel, and not Iran. Ahmadinejad’s words in regards to alleged [wiping Israel off the map] has been translated erroneously, and has noting to do with wanting to wipe Israel off of map. Reference was , just as communism was wiped out, Zionist will disappear from face of the earth and NOT THE PEOPLE OF ISRAEL .
Sidney,
Thanks for your insightful comments.
Sean,
First off if we hold Iran to the letter of the NPT let’s hold Israel to it as well. Oh wait a minute, the Israelis didn’t sign it so they get a free pass — even though Israel does possess nuclear weapons. Today.
It’s plausible to suggest that fissile material was/is available on the underground arms market. If it is I can’t dismiss the possibility that Iran may have acquired a bit of it.
However there has been absolutely no evidence presented to support that suggestion, unless the unnamed author of the unnamed book Mr Jones refers to contains that information. If Iran hypothetically DID manage to procure some HEU from irregular sources was Iran the only customer? I wonder if the Brasilians or Argentines may have bought some themselves. Maybe the Chileans. Or the Poles. Or the Japanese. Or the Taiwanese. Or the Venezuelans.
I haven’t a shred of evidence to prove any of that of course but I’m confident my suspicions are correct.
.
Blah Blah, Israel is clearly bluffing. The only way to attack Iran is to have the US basically do it alone, since it would require stealth everything basically.
Stealth cruise missiles to take out the Russian AA systems, and then stealth aircraft to take out other, less advanced radar systems and other military targets etc. Then the attacks themselves would finally come and would require tons of planes and tons bombs, one after another after another after another, all hitting the same spot over and voer and over in order to penetrate all that protective bunker cover.
Israel doing it alone? lol? Clearly a loosly sewn bluff thats unravelling at the seams.
Sidney,
I struggle to compare freedom fighters to the likes of suicide bombers not only killing innocent people but sole purpose to target civilians, women and children. While the Israeli army has made some very grave mistakes killing innocent people – this was not their motive and there methods of warfare in such a densely populated area like Gaza was to limit innocent casualties.
John,
I am curious to where your statistics of 80% of wars are started by Israel. Furthermore, what you define as starting the war? Because I cannot see how you can claim that Israel started this war in Gaza when everyday hundreds of rockets where hitting Southern Israel.
dm,
just because the izraeli government uses a military force to kill civilians and hamas sends a teenage boy strapped with C4 to kill people, there is NO difference. to claim that izrael has made “grave mistakes” is repulsive. they don’t make “grave mistakes” they make grave yards. you think that izrael does not know what they are doing when they go into a large concentration camp that they created with a million people forced to live in it that they are purposelly not killing civilians?? when you drop bombs and shells on UN hospital when u know it is a UN hospital, u know exactly what you are doing. with all its “sophisticated” weaspons and training, the IDF sure makes alot mistakes. this has become their excuse. they don’t make mistakes, they are a mistake. and in your response to all the”thousands” on rockets fired onto israel, where is the damage, I’m sure these deadly rockets that hit israel by the thousands are likely to cause damage and causalties, where are they?? here’s a thought, maybe if israel didn’t force people to live in a concentration camp, cut of food and supplies to a million people,steal land and home, maybe, just maybe no one would fire any rockets at them.
are dealing with a theocratic state; Iran killed its own in thousands in 80s revolution. Their war time president Khamenei (8 yr war with Iraq), who went on national TV thumping his chest with death to Amrica and death to saddam sloganeering every Friday (they were prayers!!) in their nationwide brainwash program, is the current AYATOLLA of Shias (the pope). Its constitutionally mandatory to follow his orders (in civil/ military/police matters not religious matters) questioning of which may result in death. They sent underage boys to walk and clear the minefields, called them shahids under orders of Khomini. Thailand, Philippines, India, and Chechenya are some other areas these militants are aiding.
The Europe will succumb soon, allowing muslim personal laws to them as India already did. Which means, constitutionally there are 2 different laws in one nation depending on religion. More importantly, the next step is going to be imposition of Sharia law as Pakistan agreed to this past week to Taliban on its own soil. If Israel is not the front line whipping boy, its going to be amrica in its place, just because rest of the world is disinclined to face Islamic fundamentalism.
Your comments are not only ridiculous and dumb but they represent the uneducated and illiterate Sunni version of Islam. The same sect that runs out claiming if u kill women and children in a market place in Baghdad or Kabul that you get to “go to heaven with 70 virgins” waiting for u. its disillusioned and irrational thinking based on misinterpretations of the Quran that has brought all these problems to the Muslim world. It’s why you see the cowardly Sunni countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan is the real source of terrorism and extremism. The “chest beating” ayatollahs you refer to pushed back the Saudi and U.S backed sadam. Your lack of understanding of your own religion, misinterpretations of the Quran, and real world politics is exactly why Sunni fundamentalism is a joke and on the decline. You have reduced your beliefs to listening to any Arabic speaking monkey of the street, claiming him a sheikh and doing whatever he tells you to do. Whether that means dressing up as woman and walk into some restraints and blow your self up and calling it jihad or flying airplanes into building to kill innocent civilians and calling it the “ultimate jihad”. Iran /Hezbollah/ and shia fights are against Israeli and U.S military not journalists and humanitarian workers. Your kind is too coward to take part in an actual military battle. You hide out in caves and amongst women and children and families. Perhaps going back and understand your own religion first might be a good idea before you decide to post up idiotic statements.
A few years back I joined ISM; having seen the media coverage of the Palestinian plight back home in Sweden, I felt compelled to do something. Having previously volunteered with an NGO in Ethiopia, I believed my third world experience could be advantageous.
There are un-deniably many obstacles to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli settlements, the check points etc… My encounter with the pleasent Palestinian population in the West Bank, taught me that it was more concerened with perpetuating its own suffering– than coming up with a hands on initiative for improving the Palestinian way of life.
What I am implying is that the whole Palestinian narrative has to be re-directed some where constructive, and not destructive. Otherwise the Palestinian state will be clueless once it gains its independence from Israel.
great, we have another expert in azad who now can give hin analysis on iran. its the fact that we have uneducated people making assumption about things by watching youtube videos and thinking they now know everything. when the biggest problem has been the illietrate people from places like pakistan and saudia arabia and egypt misinterpreting the holiest book and carrying out barbaric acts and proclaiming them as “jihad” your idea of being a martyr is strapping C4 to yourself and going into some market place in baghdad or kabul and killing a bunch of women and kids, that is your idea of bravery and “jihad”. the so called “sharia law” people like you cry and wine about is based off some 16th century nomadic barbaric backward ideas instead of actual islamic law. perhaps educating yourself on your own religion first might be a good idea before coming into these semi intellectual blogs and posting up nonsense.
Israeli people have every right to be worried Iran wants to remove the all with what ever means and if israel doesnt do something soon they may be in deep trouble . The world should be doing more than sanctions. Sanctions hasnt slowed them down at. Un is worthless with all the problems in the world they walk away or close their eyes at all problems that are very important.
why is that izrael complains about the UN being worthless and ineffective when its the UN who gave izrael the green light to start its apartheid of palestine to begin with. its the UN that continously ignores the fact that izrael is a terrrorist state armed with WMDs and an extremist government equivalent of the taliban that openly talks about ethninc cleansing and is violating its own “peace agreements” by stealing land. izrael is the cause of all problems in the middle east and with the U.S breast feeding it, there needs to be a counter to get izrael back in line. a nuclear iran would help keep izrael in check and tighten up the leash on them, which need done very badly. for the sake of their own people.