AxisMundi Jerusalem

Who’s Actually Ready for Syrian-Israeli Peace Talks?

What exactly are the prospects for renewed Syrian-Israeli peace talks now?

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s has called for a new round of Turkish-mediated Syrian-Israeli negotations.  The problem is that it is unclear whether Israelis or Syrians are still on board with the idea.

In a Reuters  article about Erdogan’s proposal, some Israeli officials said they were now sceptical of Turkey’s role: Benny Begin, a Netanyahu confidant, suggested Turkey’s fierce criticism of the Israeli Gaza offensive had damaged Ankara’s role as a neutral negotiator and said any negotiations for a peace agreement would have to be conducted directly between Syria and Israel without a negotiator.

As for Syria, the Turkish paper Today’s Zaman quotes the Syrian political analyst, Sami Moubayed, who argues that the meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Asad and Erdogan shouldn’t necessarily point solely to an interest in restarting Syrian-Israeli peace talks. Rather, it highlights improved Syrian-Turkish relations (they historically had their own  tensions over a disputed Turkish land grab on the Syrian-Turkish border and Syria’s harbouring of Kurdish Workers’ Party leaders). Zaman also quotes Israeli analyst Shlomo Brom, who argues that the only ostensible mediator in future talks now could be the United States.

Meanwhile recent posts by Joshua Landis, an American analyst of Syrian politics, suggest that Syria’s best strategy may be to sit back and do nothing for now.

As Landis argues, “Syria may be weak militarily but it holds many regional cards.”  Right now, its position is fairly good. Saudi Arabia is making moves towards improving relation. Between improved diplomatic relations with Lebanon, and the current Lebanese political standstill, Syria hasn’t lost its foothold there either. It will also be important in internal Palestinian negotiations.

“[Syria] will likely stand firm,” Landis says, ” allowing Lebanon’s emulous factionalism to paralyse progress in forming a government. Assad can also stand back as Netanyahu and Obama play their game of chicken over settlements and the future of Palestinian land. If Obama blinks and allows Netanyahu to continue to expand Israel’s control over Palestinian land, as most expect him to do, it will be Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan — America’s allies — which will take the most heat for America’s failure.”  Best to stay in the clear for now.

You’ve set my mind at ease

Israel’s political picture has been so unclear and complicated since an indecisive Feb. 10 election that President Shimon Peres said he asked right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu to put it down on paper that he had in fact agreed to accept his mandate to go out and form the next Israeli government.

“And he has put it in writing, so now my mind is at ease,” Peres joked as he announced his decision to designate Netanyahu, rather than centrist Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, as potential prime minister — once he completes that task of coalition building.

Livni’s Kadima party had outpolled Netanyahu’s Likud, winning 28 seats in parliament to his 27. But Peres chose Netanyahu for the job of would-be prime minister because Netanyahu, a former prime minister, had the most other parliament members recommending him for the job.

But as much as Netanyahu, U.S.-educated and a polished speaker, wanted another shot at the nation’s top job, he certainly had a complex task ahead of him to rebuild a coalition with politicians whose views were disquietingly similar to the far-right lawmakers who effectively toppled his previous government in 1999 and forced an early election.

Writing in the Haaretz newspaper’s Web site, veteran Israeli political columnist Yossi Verter averred that dealing with such a divided Israel was “not how he planned to begin his second term.”

Livni has thus far indicated she would not join any coalition headed by Netanyahu, as she has said she objects to serving as a “fig-leaf” for policies that would not help advance negotiations with Palestinians for a two-state solution.  

Once Peres had formally designated Netanyahu, Kadima’s faction leader in parliament Yoel Hasson told Reuters that the party’s lawmakers were likely to ratify exactly that position when they meet on Sunday, and announce they would opt for the opposition benches in parliament.

Can Israel do a power-share?

A predawn victory party for Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had all the trappings of a fairytale, including a ballroom setting in a Tel Aviv hotel.

The woman who had edged ahead of rival Benjamin Netanyahu in a national election stood to become Israel’s first woman prime minister in 30 years, and she had surely beaten the odds to get there, just weeks after polls predicted a resounding defeat for her centrist Kadima party.

“This is truly amazing, the public has had its say and it’s Tzipi,” Yaacov Edri, a former cabinet minister from Kadima, told me as supporters broke out in song and dance, proclaiming Livni as “queen of Israel,” and waving blue and red party flags.

A hip-hop style ode to the centrist party leader blared from loudspeakers.

Livni, flashing a triumphant V sign with her fingers called it “a wonderful day for Israel,” and said “the Israeli people have chosen Kadima and we will respect that choice by forming the next government, headed by Kadima.”

It didn’t take long for it to sink in for many that Livni’s victory celebration may have been premature. Netanyahu, whose right-wing Likud party trailed Kadima by only one seat in the 120-member parliament, also claimed victory, saying parties belonging to the “nationalist camp” had secured a governing majority.

“It’s not going to be easy at all,” Edri remarked about Livni’s chances of pulling together a coalition.Her first order of business may have to be implementing an electoral reform plan that whittles down the number of parties running in Israeli elections from the incredible 30 that took part in this latest contest.

from Global News Journal:

Twittering from the front-lines

Who remembers the Google Wars website that was doing the viral rounds a few years back – a mildly amusing, non-scientific snapshot of the search-driven, internet world we live in?

It lives on at www.googlebattle.com where you can enter two search terms, say ‘Lennon vs. McCartney’ or ‘Left vs. Right’, and let the internet pick a winner by the number of search hits each word gets.

As we reported here – the virtual world has become a real battleground in the ongoing Gaza conflict – with all sides deploying significant resources.

For Israel – where hasbara or PR has often been frowned upon as unnecessary pandering to international opinion that never turns in Israel’s favour anyway – the second Lebanon war underlined the need for a coherent media and PR strategy coordinated at the centre of government.

The post-mortem of the month-long war with Hezbollah in 2006 - known as the Winograd Commission - recommended a centralised approach to hasbara to avoid spokesmen from different ministries, the army or the police telling different or conflicting stories to a voracious local and international media.

Notwithstanding the fact that the head of the new National Information Directorate did not make it to a scheduled interview with our reporter on the story above  – as my colleague Dan Williams reported here the strategy certainly seems to be working for domestic consumption.

Sources inside the Israeli government have said they are generally happy with the way the strategy has worked internationally as well despite growing international calls for a ceasefire and increasingly angry protests around the world.

from Global News Journal:

Gaza war – Early test for Obama?

The slow pace of talks between Hamas and Egyptian mediators on Cairo's proposal for a Gaza ceasefire is raising speculation in Israel over whether the Islamist group is playing for time, hoping to get a better deal once Barack Obama is sworn in as U.S. president on Tuesday.

Israel also has been in no rush to call off the offensive it began on Dec. 27 with the declared aim of ending Hamas rocket attacks on its southern towns.

It now has only less than a week left to put into motion a threatened third phase of the campaign, an all-out push into densely populated Gaza cities, while its strong ally, President George W. Bush, is still in office.

The bloodshed has opened faultlines in the map of Middle East diplomacy, with the Bush administration in its final week standing behind Israel, Europe pressing Israel to call off its attacks and Arab leaders speaking out against the Jewish state.

For Israel, too, waiting for Obama -- who has promised to make Israeli-Palestinian peace an early priority for his administration -- could have its advantages.

The way Obama, who last July visited the southern Israeli town of Sderot, a frequent target of Hamas rockets, deals with the Gaza war could set the tone early for his Middle East policy and provide an initial answer to the question being asked in Israel and the Arab world: To what extent, if any, will he soften Bush's pro-Israeli stance?