KAMPALA (Reuters) – Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is expected to win a fourth term in a general election on February 18 despite a strong challenge from third-time opponent Kizza Besigye.

Here are a few likely scenarios for the national vote and the impact it may have on east Africa’s third largest economy.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – Ugandan police said they believe terrorists are targeting Kampala before national elections this month, the latest in a series of threats since twin bombs killed 79 people in the capital last year.

Police told people living in Kampala to look out for “unexpected gifts, flowers,” prompting one newspaper to warn readers of a potential plot on Valentine’s Day, four days before the February 18 poll.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – A war of words between Uganda’s main presidential candidates escalated on Friday, sparking fears of Egypt-style street violence should the opposition say the poll was rigged.

Uganda’s main opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, repeated a warning he made to Reuters last week that Ugandans may overthrow long-standing President Yoweri Museveni with mass public protests if a February 18 poll is not fair.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – Ugandan police said on Wednesday that a man had confessed to murdering a gay rights activist after a “personal disagreement” in an attack last week that sparked worldwide fury.

David Kato, one of the country’s most visible gay campaigners, was beaten to death with a hammer at his home on Thursday and died on the way to hospital.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – “I think I’ll be safer here at home” — those were some of the last words Julian Pepe heard from her friend and fellow gay rights activist David Kato. That night his head was beaten in with a hammer.

“He just didn’t feel that he could leave his house anymore,” says Pepe.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – “I think I’ll be safer here at home” — those were some of the last words Julian Pepe heard from her friend and fellow gay rights activist David Kato. That night his head was beaten in with a hammer.

“He just didn’t feel that he could leave his house anymore,” says Pepe.

KAMPALA (Reuters) – A Ugandan gay rights activist murdered after his photo was printed on the cover of a newspaper that called for gays to be executed was likely killed during a robbery, police said on Thursday.

David Kato was one of three people featured in Uganda’s Rolling Stone newspaper in October who won an injunction this month barring it from continuing its anti-gay campaign that had pictured gays under the headline: “Hang Them.”

KAMPALA (Reuters) – A Ugandan gay rights activist murdered after his photo was printed on the cover of a newspaper that called for gays to be executed was likely killed during a robbery, police said on Thursday.

David Kato was one of three people featured in Uganda’s Rolling Stone newspaper in October who won an injunction this month barring it from continuing its anti-gay campaign that had pictured gays under the headline: “Hang Them.”