Ben Klayman

Check out all the wine drinking going on.

Two-thirds (67 percent) of Americans surveyed said they partake in wine on holidays and special occasions while at home, while another 58 percent drink wine at home with dinner on an ordinary night, according to consumer trend tracker Mintel.

The wine market has grown 20 percent from 2004 through 2009 despite the recession, but at the peak of the slowdown in 2008 it declined 3.2 percent, Mintel said. With consumers slowly feeling better about the economy, the firm expects the wine market to increase by 2.1 percent this year.

"The future of the wine market looks bright, at least for moderately priced segments," Mintel senior food and drink analyst Sarah Theodore said in a statement. "Value wines have helped consumers rethink their perceptions about wine."

And how does wine stack up vs beer?

Mintel said so far this year nearly half (47 percent) of survey respondents say they drink beer compared to 35 percent who drink imported and domestic wines. Champagne and sparkling wines are next at 17 percent, followed by port, sherry and dessert wines at 7 percent.

Certainly wine was on the minds of analysts and executives on Hormel's earnings conference call on Tuesday.

Hormel, whose foods include Jennie-O turkeys, usually reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results days ahead of Thanksgiving. During Tuesday's call, Credit Suisse analyst Robert Moskow asked a follow up question -- well, really, he gave more of a plea.
 
"I'm just trying to encourage Tim Ramey to call in with a wine selection for Thanksgiving," Moskow said, referring to a D.A. Davidson analyst, who also follows Hormel and has offered wine pairings with Hormel foods on the call in the past. 
 
"It's a Thanksgiving tradition. I don't know where Tim is today," replied Hormel CEO Jeffrey Ettinger.
 
"Don't you guys have anything you can throw out our way? I'm more of a Diet Coke fan," joked Moskow.
 
"I think just as long as you go with a Jennie-O Turkey, or a Cure 81 ham, we have that part of the meal covered," Ettinger said.
 
When the call wrapped up, Hormel's director of investor relations, Kevin Jones, offered up some pairing advice. "In response to Rob's question, a good new Beaujolais, a Chardonnay, or Pinot Noir will go very well with a Jennie-O turkey, and either a Pinot Grigio or Riesling with the Cure 81 ham."

Rising wine consumption goes nicely with reduced salt intake. Last week, Mintel said in its predictions for consumer packaged goods in 2010 that sodium reduction was poised to be the next big health push.

Also in the basket:

British union to meet Kraft over bid for Cadbury

Tiffany profit beats; view raised ahead of holiday

Wal-Mart has not applied for retail stores-India minister

Starbucks eyes China as next major market

Cheap and Cheerful for the Holidays (New York Times)

(Additional reporting by Jessica Wohl)

(Reuters photo)

Check out the expected increase early next year in import cargo volume at U.S. retail container ports.

The numbers could rise year-over-year in February, for the first increase in more than two years, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and IHS Global Insight.

"This could be the turnaround we've been waiting to see for a long time," NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold said in a statement. "There's not enough data yet to establish a clear trend, but we're hopeful that this is a sign of recovery."

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.14 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in September, the most-recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 3 percent from August and 16 percent from September 2008.

Volume for October, traditionally the peak month of the year, was estimated at 1.17 million TEU, down 15 percent from last year, according to the survey. November, December and January are forecast to be down 11 percent, flat and down 3 percent, respectively.

However, February, the slowest month of the year, is forecast to report cargo of 973,872 TEU, which would be a 16 percent increase over February 2009, while March is expected to show a 5 percent increase at 1.02 million TEU, according to the survey.

"The second half of 2009 has continued to see declines from 2008's levels, but not as large as we saw during the first half of this year," IHS Global economist Paul Bingham said. "These 'less bad' numbers are evidence that the industry is seeing early signs of recovery."

Also in the basket:

Heinz profit falls, raises full-year view

Zale posts wider loss on weak jewelry demand

Hormel 4th-qtr profit jumps despite sales decline

American Eagle posts in-line 3rd qtr profit

Dollar Tree profit beats estimates

Carl's Jr. restaurants serving Coke's vitaminwater

(Reuters photo)

Check out the possible bidding war brewing for British confectioner Cadbury.

U.S. chocolate maker Hershey and Italy's privately owned Ferrero both said separately they were evaluating their options over a possible bid for Cadbury, the world's No. 2 confectioner, but analysts still see hostile bidder Kraft's $16.2 billion offer as the front runner.

Reuters and other media have reported Hershey, known for its namesake chocolates and Reese's peanut butter cups, and Ferrero were discussing a joint bid and the UK Takeover panel asked the companies to clarify their intentions. They gave no hint whether they may be working together on a joint bid.

Analysts are skeptical, however, as Hershey is smaller than Cadbury, has high debts and is controlled by a charitable trust, while the secretive Ferrero, famed for its Nutella chocolate spread and Ferrero Rocher chocolates,  has made few acquisitions. Most analysts and investors expect Kraft to raise its bid.

Also in the basket:

BJ's Wholesale quarterly profit falls

Subway eyes 1,000 Russian outlets by 2015

Chico's quarterly profit beats Street; shares jump

Retailers send distress signal for holiday quarter

Coke sees international markets key to long-term growth

Saks CEO says big spenders still hesitant

(Reuters photo)

Even the best golfers -- yes, you Tiger Woods -- systematically miss the opportunity to score a "birdie" (when a golfer sinks a ball one stroke below par, or what is expected) out of fear of having a "bogey" (or taking one stroke more than par), according to a study by two University of Pennsylvania professors.

However, playing it safe has its own costs in golf and business, Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer, professors of economics and psychology at the Wharton School, said in their paper entitled "Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse? Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stakes."

The professors studied putts during pro golf tournaments and their research suggested the "agony of a bogey seems to outweigh the thrill of a birdie." They calculated that type of decision-making bias costs the average golfer about 1 stroke during a 72-hole tournament, translating to a combined loss of about $1.2 million in prize money per year for the top 20 golfers.

"This research provides evidence that people work especially hard in order to avoid losses," Pope said.

The researchers found that golfers avoid the possibility of loss by playing conservatively when they could do better than par, but will try harder if they are at risk of coming in above par. Pope said "loss aversion" is part of a growing field of behavioral economics, which explores how human psychology impacts markets and business.

In a business context, the professors said par might be equated to quarterly earnings or investors' approach to selling or holding on to stocks depending on what they initially paid for the shares.

The professors said their work challenges theories that suggest bias in decision making does not persist in markets. They used data from 230 PGA Tour golf tournaments between 2004 and 2009, concentrating on 2.5 million putts attempted by 412 golfers who each made at least 1,000 putts.

Pope, who does not golf, and Schweitzer, who only occasionally plays, said the study shows even experts in a subject suffer from bias in high-stakes settings.

"The bottom line is this," said Schweitzer, "If Tiger Woods is biased when he plays golf, what hope do the rest of us have?"

(Reuters photo by Mick Tsikas)

Bill Belichick has been crucified metaphorically by many pundits and fans for his gamble late in a National Football League game against the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts, but one top economist says the coach many previously called a genius made the right decision Sunday even if it backfired on him.

Belichick chose to have the Patriots go for a first down late in the fourth quarter with his team deep in its own territory and clinging to a lead on the road. New England failed to convert and the Colts immediately drove for the winning score in its 35-34 victory. And the second guessing began.

However, Greg Mankiw, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush and now an economist at Harvard University, said on his blog that sometimes even the optimal strategy fails.

"It did not work out well in this particular case, and Belichick is coming under some heat for his call," Mankiw said. "This does not mean ... Belichick (is) wrong. Some strategies that fail ex post might be optimal ex ante. Randomness is a fact of life, even if Patriots' fans do not fully appreciate it."

Belichick defended his decision again on Monday. He should take heart that most people face criticism in their lives, including Mankiw, who in 2004 came under heavy fire for saying outsourcing of U.S. jobs to workers overseas may benefit the U.S. economy.

(Reuters photo by Brent Smith)

Check out the expected higher use of cash and debit cards this holiday shopping season by debt-weary American consumers.

Credit cards are losing their appeal as 28.3 percent of U.S. shoppers said they plan to use that method of payment most often this holiday season, down from 31.5 percent last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and BIGresearch.

Meanwhile, those intending to use cash most often rose to 24.9 percent from 22.8 percent last year, while debit card/check card use increased 1 percentage point to 42.5 percent, according to the survey.

"With many holiday shoppers focused on spending within their limits, it's no surprise that fewer people will be relying on credit cards this year," NRF CEO Tracy Mullin said in a statement.

Also in the basket:

Home depot profit beats Street; outlook raised

Target profit up, cautious on fourth quarter

Ferrero weighs Cadbury alliance offer-report

Dillard's swings to profit in Q3

Saks posts Q3 profit, shares up

Coca-Cola aims to double system revenue by 2020

(Reuters photo)

Check out the mixed messages about the U.S. economy from the various consumer earnings.

Like any other earning day nowadays, it's pick your poison on whether you want to focus on the good news or the bad news when it comes to whether the economy is improving.

Watchmaker Fossil reported a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit and raised its profit forecast for the fourth quarter, sending shares up. And clothing retailer American Apparel also posted a profit above analysts' expectations and said it saw signs of momentum in sales.

Meanwhile, InterContinental Hotels, the world's biggest hotelier, said it was too early to forecast a recovery as room rates continued to fall due to cutbacks by business travelers. The group, whose brands include InterContinental, Crowne Plaza and Holiday Inn, and which earns 70 percent of its profit in the United States, said occupancy is stabilizing but room rates are under pressure across the board.

For what it's worth, top forecasters are growing more confident the U.S. economy has embarked on a sustainable recovery, according to a survey. However, a report last week showed the jobless rate jumped to a 26-1/2 year high of 10.2 percent in October.

Also in the basket:

PREVIEW-AB InBev Q3 profit growth seen slowing

Yum India aims for $1 billion sales by 2015

Firms Loaded With Cash in Position to Diversify (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out the probable lower level of tips for service providers during the holidays.

Chalk up tips for cleaning people, school teachers, barbers, mail carriers and others as another probable victim of the weak U.S. economy, according to a new poll conducted by Consumer Reports magazine.  

The magazine polled Americans about their tipping habits during the 2008 holidays and again in October and found 26 percent of Americans who usually tip or give a gift to a service provider said they would spend less this holiday season. Just 6 percent planed to spend more.

"Families are looking for ways to balance their financial concerns with the need to thank people who have helped them during the year," Tobie Stanger, senior editor at Consumer Reports, said in a statement. "This year, tipping is more of a challenge than ever, but CR's survey shows that people are still trying to do it, for the most part."

The average value of tips (i.e. some were gifts instead of cash or gift cards) varied by occupation, with a cleaning person at $50, a child's teacher and a hairdresser at $20, and a manicurist at $10, according to Consumer Reports.

Some readers told the magazine they plan to still say thanks with a card or homemade gift.

Also in the basket:

Food the focus as Wal-Mart starts holiday giving

Kraft quarterly results could make a case to Cadbury

ADM profit soars past Wall Street estimates

Polo 2nd-qtr profit tops Street view

Walgreen October sales up a bit more than expected

Energizer quarterly profit falls

(Reuters photo)

(Corrects to show Kenny Wallace, not Rusty Wallace did a similar program)

A company launched by a NASCAR fan to allow fellow race lovers to collectively sponsor a car has signed up a former NASCAR champion driver as its first recipient.

FanCar said it will sponsor two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Terry Labonte and Carter/Simo racing at the Ford 400 race on Nov. 22 in Miami, the last race of the season. The company was launched by Texan and NASCAR fan Matt Ferguson last week.

"Our sport is struggling for sponsorship," Ferguson said in a telephone interview. "There are way too many great drivers out there without sponsors."

Smaller teams in NASCAR have cut jobs and merged this year to survive as corporate sponsors have cut spending amid the weak economy.

For $20, each fan will be able to vote on the car's paint scheme as well as the overall message on the vehicle, and will receive their name on the car and a certificate of sponsorship and a digital photo of the car. Before Labonte's involvement was announced, donations had come from Alaska, Massachusetts and Canada, Ferguson said.

Labonte (above, in 2007) has won 22 races in his NASCAR Sprint Cup career and was the series champion in 1984 and 1996. In 1998, he was named one of NASCAR's 50 greatest drivers.

Ferguson said he did not know how much he has raised for Labonte because the response was so heavy after FanCar was announced that he turned off the email notifications he received on his BlackBerry cell phone every time someone made a donation.

NASCAR driver Rusty Kenny Wallace took a similar approach to sponsorship for a race in Canada earlier this year, raising about $100,000. Among the sponsors of his care were Lombardo Bail Bonds, AmmoSam, Repo Rob, MarriageJunkie.com, Iowabarns.com and a cat, according to reports.

Ferguson said all money raised goes to Labonte as he pays for his business through advertising on the website, as well as the sale of FanCar merchandise. The 32-year-old entrepreneur from College Station, Texas, added that he intends to continue the program next season and has been contacted by other car owners and race tracks about the program

(Reuters photo)

Check out the tale of two cities in the retail world.

We are in the heart of the earnings season and every day brings reports that offer grist for both sides of the argument about whether the recovery has begun.

For the optimists, we have sports clothing and footwear maker Under Armour, which posted a stronger-than-expected quarter and raised its outlook, and yoga clothing and athletic gear maker Lululemon Athletica, which raised its forecast.

Meanwhile, DineEquity, home of the Rooty Tooty Fresh 'N Fruity breakfast at IHOP, topped Wall Street's expectations due to lower costs, and better sales and more efficient staffing allowed outdoor gear retailer Cabela's to post stronger-than-expected earnings.

On the other side of the tug-of-war, pessimists can point to VF Corp. The maker of such brands as the North Face, Vans, Wrangler and Lee missed analysts' expectations and said consumer spending would remain challenged.

Meanwhile, Winn-Dixie posted a wider loss and gave a weak 2010 outlook as recession-hit consumers shopped for fewer items on visits to the supermarket chain, and Limited Brands, the operator of the Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, warned that its October sales are trending below expectations.

The market weighed in as S&P 500 index futures edged higher on Tuesday as better-than-expected earnings offset worries that the market's seven-month rally was reaching its end.

Also in the basket:

PepsiCo wins EU approval to buy two bottlers

Analyst: Store Closures Predicted to Peak in '10 (WWD, subscription required)

Men's Wearhouse to spiff up K&G stores (New York Post)

(Reuters photo)