Comments on: U.S. intelligence and the wisdom of crowds http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/ Tue, 31 Mar 2015 01:18:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: jsakowicz http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1568 Mon, 04 Jul 2011 20:47:39 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1568 Right now in the intelligence community, we are witnessing what I call the “collapse of paradigms”. Federal agencies like the CI, NASA, Homeland Security, and the terroriam task force and counterintelligence division of the FBI, have failed us. Their over-reliance on technology — some would say infatuation — is largely to blame.

To wit, things have evolved to the point where 70 per cent of our intelligenc operationsare currently outsourced. Read Tim Shorrock’s excellent book, “Spies for Hire”.

That said, what I put my faith in is Web-Bot Linguistic Analysis.

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By: windows support scam http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1443 Mon, 23 May 2011 12:06:37 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1443 Is there customer service available if I need assistance setting this up?

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By: Suemanley1 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1267 Mon, 04 Apr 2011 17:35:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1267 The prediction is only as good as the data and analysis points of the predicting person. To many people do not take into account enough factors or they do not have access to accurate data or they have cultural bias that limits their understanding of the data.

It is a science… but it is also an art. A bit like playing poker or handicapping race horses.

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By: idiotboy http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1264 Mon, 04 Apr 2011 10:46:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1264 I predict it will fail …

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By: M.C.McBride http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1262 Mon, 04 Apr 2011 02:40:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1262 I say shutdown the CIA and the NSA. Both groups are just a bunch of warmongers. We would be safer as Americans if that money was used to fund mental health clinics rather than militant lunatics.

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By: citoyendumonde http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1259 Sat, 02 Apr 2011 21:43:34 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1259 With billions annual budget & dozens agencies, they either get it right or get out of this business.

The world will be better place spending that money on research new energy sources, economocal & social development of the under priviledged.

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By: quateen http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1258 Sat, 02 Apr 2011 19:22:54 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1258 We in the Middle East are amazed at the analyses and understanding of the “West”‘s experts and Think-Tanks when they attempt to analyze or comment on events in our region. That’s why the regular Arab accuses them of being either puppets of Israel or a propaganda instrument because they are always way off in their assessments, that seems obvious to the people on the street.
However, the reasons for these inaccuracies by those experts is simply that they want to understand and predict a situation on the streets while they sit in offices overlooking capital hill and they use Google maps to know Tahrir square.
If you had people on the ground, interacting with the locals, understanding their feelings and aspirations..you would have found out that they are humans that love democracy, what peace and prosperity for their country and they do not want make their kids suicide bombers.
Once you understand that then you have to work with them to promote democracy and peace in the region… you won’t need to give Billions to the governments of Israel or Egypt.

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By: mdiavaro99ro http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1256 Sat, 02 Apr 2011 17:01:38 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1256 Oh my! Isn’t this the project the Bush Jr. regime proposed at some point only in a different manner?! He wanted public bets…

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By: zhmileskendig http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1255 Sat, 02 Apr 2011 16:34:53 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1255 If there is one fact that had been made plain over time it is that professional prognosticators can’t see crap coming, even though it happens every day. This fact once again validates that establishment & intelligence when combined create a truly rotted cesspool of intellectual impaction.

Ignorance is curable, systemically enforced stupidity not so much.

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By: ChrisHerz http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/2011/04/01/u-s-intelligence-and-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-1254 Sat, 02 Apr 2011 15:59:22 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusmann/?p=188#comment-1254 Even without specialized knowledge it was possible to state that the Arab uprisings would eventually happen. Chalmers Johnson, an insider if ever there was one, has given us an extensive discussion of blowback, to which I urge everyone’s attention.
I am sure independent specialists in Arab affairs had some idea of the instability in Egypt, especially, even if they could not offer predictions upon which day the revolution would occur.
The real problem is that official Washington, my own home town, is firmly married to group-think, the bosses here desire only to have their a priori positions supported and actually take severe and often career-ending actions against dissenters within their institutional setup.
Personally I have successfully predicted many of the things mentioned in this article; even making money as a result, but under no circumstances at at all would I collaborate with the killers, crooks and thieves in charge of my country.

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