July marked the start of the back-to-school shopping season (sorry kids!) and on Thursday investors will get a chance if this important season got off to a strong start when major U.S. retailers like Wal-Mart, Target, Gap and J.C. Penney report their July same-store sales results.

Investors and analysts are watching to see if higher gasoline prices and the deteriorating housing market will crimp back-to-school spending, or if student demand for electronics, like cell phones, laptops and MP3 players, means shoppers are spending less on clothing this year.

They will also have to navigate calendar changes that have made gauging monthly sales results more difficult this year. An extra week on last year’s retail calendar has created monthly periods this year that are not exactly comparable to year-ago results.

Here are excerpts from research notes with a round up of what analysts are expecting:

Brean Murray, Carret & Co. analyst Eric Beder: (See full note here)

• July, especially with the shift in the calendar to a week ahead of last year, marks the full start of the back-to-school selling season and the initial stages of fall; as such, the month is an important signpost for the rest of the year.
• While we believe there have been a number of key fashion positives, including continued strong demand for dresses and a shift to more flaired denim, there has been a continued lack of traffic in the mall; we believe the current low-growth,
  Darwinian environment will remain, at least for the near term.
• Given the relatively weak economic and mall traffic picture, we believe there is limited upside to our comp projections; we would not be surprised if bebe provided a dismal outlook for the remainder of the fall season.

Cowen and Co. analyst Lauren Cooks Levitan: (See full note here)

• While total July sales are expected to benefit from the calendar shift (high volume week shifts into Q2), particularly for BTS (back-to-school) focused retailers, we look for generally lackluster July comp store sales following another month of weak mall traffic trends coupled with the negative impact of later school start dates and tax holidays (FL and TX most importantly).
• We continue to expect that the calendar-related issues will produce uncertainty
  regarding how to interpret early BTS trends. However, given lean inventory levels and conservative assumptions following the slow start to Q2 sales, we do not expect significant changes to our Q2 estimates for most specialty retailers. As the specialty retail group has significantly underperformed the market since reporting June comps, we think we could see some relief on indications that Q2 EPS estimates are achievable regardless of July sales results.

JP Morgan analyst Charles Grom: (See full note here)

• Recall that expectations for June comps were dire heading into SSS 4 weeks ago and the group enjoyed a massive short squeeze run (up 3.0% vs. S&P 500 +1.9%) after SSS came in more/less on plan. However, the rally was short-lived with the group (and market) under severe pressure - down 11.9% (S&P 500 7.4%). Will we see a similar trade this Thursday? We think it’s possible although the unfavorable calendar shift in both August and September is going to make comps look cosmetically softer and likely keep sentiment from improving much. All in, we feel most comfortable long COST, TGT, and WMT and would tread lightly with the rest of our coverage group. 

Goldman Sachs analyst Adrianne Shapira: (See full note here)

• This coming month will carry two key guideposts for investors to grade: 1) July same-store sales and 2) Q2 EPS season. While July same-store sales tend to be less significant due to heavy clearance activity, this year’s results will carry important clues as to customer spending appetite in early back-to-school period.
• While we suspect there has been a clear softening in trends even beyond the home category into apparel, we do not expect sales to be as disappointing as the stocks are anticipating. In fact, we would expect there to be some clear positive surprises, notably at Costco and Nordstrom. Both stocks are BUY-rated and have been recently placed on the GS Conviction List. We believe both should benefit from a decidedly affluent customer and a merchandise mix less exposed to home category.