The weak housing market should be more important to the price of home improvement retailers like Home Depot  and Lowe’s than any potential federal reserve rate cut.

At least that’s what historical data show, Credit Suisse retail analyst Gary Balter said in a research note.

“While interest rates matter, existing home sales, expenditures on home improvement and consumer spending combined matter more,” Balter said.

In the early 1990s, when the Fed cut rates in the wake of the savings and loan crisis, housing sales still continued to worsen. Home Depot and Lowe’s performed in line with the market for more than a year, while other hardline retailers outperformed those stocks following the rate cuts.

In 1995, existing home sales, spending and employment all slowed despite rate cuts and Lowe’s traded sideways until 1998, when existing home sales rebounded, Balter said.

Those periods were different than in 2001, when Lowe’s stock performed well during a period of rate cuts. But the housing market was also booming at that point.

“In today’s environment, we would expect Home Depot and Lowe’s to react more in line with the 1990 and 1995 cuts, rather than 2001,” Balter said, adding that other hardline retailer stocks should do much better than Home Depot and Lowe’s as the Fed cuts rates.