It might be hard for Santa to get his sleigh in the air this year, what with all those credit storm clouds.
 
Consulting firm TNS Retail Forward forecasts only a 3.3 percent rise in sales in the fourth quarter, down from 4.6 percent in 2006.

“The credit crunch will lead to a consumer crunch by the holidays. This will extend the weakness in retail sales beyond home improvement stores to other retail channels,” said Frank Badillo, senior economist for TNS Retail Forward.

A 3.3-percent increase would be the lowest since the 3-percent increase in 2002 and the 2.4-percent increase in 2001, TNS Retail Forward said. The U.S. economy was in a recession from March 2001 through June 2001, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the folks who call such things.

Things could actually be worse than the overall forecast indicates, Badillo said.

“Our forecast numbers are even weaker when home improvement and catalog retailer sales and online sales are excluded. And, the risks are biased in favor of still weaker growth, particularly if the housing market deteriorates further,” he said.
 
For more details, click here for the entire news release.

Humbug!