Brad Dorfman

Check out Macy's disappointing fourth-quarter forecast.

Apparently, the Thanksgiving Day Parade may be the highlight of the quarter.

The department store chain operator forecast fourth-quarter profit below analysts estimates and its shares fell Wednesday morning.

The retailer also expects same-store sales to drop 1 percent to 2 percent in the quarter.  While that is less of a decline than the full year, it is also off a pretty easy comparison.  Same-store sales fell 7 percent in the year-earlier fourth quarter, when the country was waist deep in a recession and credit crunch.

Macy's, which grew through acquisitions into a national brand, has shifted its focus to offering local items in specific markets in order to try to boost sales.

So far, that might have staunched the bleeding.  But most department stores are still out of favor as consumers stay at shops like Wal-Mart in order to save money.

But hey, Wal-Mart doesn't have the cool balloons in Manhattan in November, does it?

Also in the basket:

Wal-Mart to offer $100 gift card on BlackBerry purchases

Flowers Foods Q3 sales miss estimates, cuts FY view

Best Buy's international CEO to retire

Luxury brands step up expansion in China (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out Kraft's cash hoard.

Kraft had almost $3 billion of cash on its books at the end of the third quarter, roughly four times what it had a year ago.

The world's second-largest food maker might have disappointed
analysts with its third quarter sales and a profit outlook that implied a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter.  But when it comes to its battle to win Cadbury, at least the company is generating cash -- expenses cuts helped Kraft generate $2.7 billion in cash in the first 9 months of 2009.

Also, Reuters Loan Pricing Corp reported on Tuesday that Kraft has arranged $9 billion in financing for a bid.

Sources have told Reuters that Kraft is not likely to raise its initial bid for Cadbury if it makes a formal offer by the Nov. 9 deadline. But analysts do think that shifting the offer to more cash and less Kraft stock -- which is down 3 percent on Wednesday after the company posted lackluster third-quarter sales -- could be a step in the right direction.

Also in the basket:

Warnaco beats estimates; Liz Claiborne misses

Molson Coors higher profit tops view, shares rise

M&S sees no repeat of blanket pre-Christmas promotions

Talking shop with Isaac Mizrahi (WWD)

(Reuters photo)

Check out which company Wall Street keeps underestimating.

It's Jones Apparel. The retailer and apparel maker once again "reported a much higher-than-expected" quarterly profit. Last quarter, Reuters said the company "beat estimates handsomely." The quarter before that it was "easily beat estimates."

Heck, even in the fourth quarter, when almost all retailers and apparel makers were hammered by the recession and credit meltdown, the company reported a "smaller-than-expected" quarterly loss.

Aside from demonstrating that Reuters has several different ways of saying "big earnings beat," the reports also raise this question: "Why does Wall Street keep missing the mark on Jones?"

One reason could be that the company itself still cannot quite figure out if business is up or down.

For the current quarter -- which includes the all-important holiday season -- it expects same-store sales to range anywhere from a drop of 2.5 percent to a rise of 2.5 percent.

So come February, you might see the words "eclipsed Wall Street Estimates" connected with Jones earnings.

Also in the basket:

Coke Enterprises higher profit tops expectations

Newell profit beats estimates, sales weak

Designer Ecko slam-dunked (N.Y. Post)

H&M eyes expansion in U.S. and Canada (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Jones Apparel website)

Check out who is shopping early for Christmas.
 
U.S. consumer are, according to a new Accenture survey, which showed that 69 percent of shoppers plan to do the bulk of their holiday shopping by Dec. 7.  That's up from 60 percent a year earlier.
 
More than half (52 percent), plan to shop on Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), up from 42 percent last year.
 
The game of chicken between retailers and shoppers over discounts may be more intense this year after retailers had to practically give the store away in 2008 to clear inventory in the middle of the recession.
 
The vast majority of consumers (86 percent) will not be moved to buy without a discount of at least 20 percent, and a quarter of shoppers will be looking for an aggressive 50 percent discount before they open their wallets, the survey said.
 
"We have seen a 'shift to thrift' across all income levels during this economic downturn and breaking that habit will be the greatest challenge for retailers this holiday season," Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture's Retail practice, said in a news release.
 
Gift cards may also come back, with 79 percent of people saying they will give them and 59 percent saying they really want them.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Cadbury's bumper Q3 puts pressure on suitor Kraft
 
Altria revenue misses estimates
 
P.F. Chang's profit misses; ups '09 outlook

(Reuters photo)

Want to earn $10,000 working in Times Square this holiday season?  No, no.  Not that way! Rudy Giuliani cleaned all that up.
 
P&G's Charmin toilet paper has a different job for you.  The company is looking for five "Charmin Ambassadors" to work in its portable rest rooms in Times Square this holiday season.
 
The people must be "super-fun" and "enthusiastic."
 
The job description: "Greet and entertain bathroom guests.  Then blog about the experience.  All candidates must really, really enjoy going to the bathroom." 
 
Except for the blogging part, I think my 15-month-old would be perfect for the job.

(Reuters photo)

Check out the battles emerging over books.

Google on Thursday announced plans to offer its own online electronic bookstore, joining a battlefield currently dominated by Amazon.com.

The company plans to sell ebooks for any device with a web browser and its library is expected to start at about half a million books when it is launched in 2010.

The library would compete with the likes of Amazon.com's Kindle offerings, but the books an be bought from Amazon and Barnesandnoble.com, as well as from Google directly.

Separately, Barnes & Noble is expected to launch its own electronic reader next week. Pictures of that reader on Gizmodo look kind of cool.

The New York Times also says that even public libraries are getting more into ebooks, though the business model is dicey for publishers.

In paper and ink book news, Walmart.com said it will offer the top 10 preselling U.S. books for $10 each, including free shipping.

Amazon, meanwhile, is launching same-day delivery in seven major cities, with more cities being added.

Are consumers really still this bookish? Judging from the battle over their hearts, minds and eyeballs, these companies still think there are plenty of sales to book.

Also in the basket:

Safeway profits drop 36 pct

Walgreen sets $2 billion share buyback program

Gap to open in China in 2010, will restart TV ads

(Reuters photo)

Check out retailers beating earnings expectations.

Today it is Family Dollar and Costco -- both being places where people usually shop to save money.

Family Dollar saw sales rise in the quarter, though sales at stores open at least a year were less than expected as the company has been reorganizing its stores to stock more food and other items that shoppers want as they stick to necessities.

Costco sales fell and so did its profits, in part due to a stronger dollar, higher labor costs and also because of the weak economy.

But its earnings still beat Wall Street's expectations and Costco's stock rose in the morning.

Retailers will be heard from a lot this week as many report September sales.

Also in the basket:

Coutu sees potential in Rite Aid stake (Globe and Mail)

Helen of Troy Q2 profit trumps Street

Louis Vuitton very optimistic on Christmas sales

(Reuters photo)

Check out the rising spirits at Constellation Brands.
 
The maker of Svedka vodka and Robert Mondavi wine posted a $99.7 million profit in the second quarter, compared with a year earlier loss. 

But it's not because people are buying much more booze in the recession. In fact, sales fell 8 percent, though they rose 4 percent if you factor out issues like currency rate changes and divestitures.

Quarterly earnings of 54 cents a share were 13 cents ahead of analysts estimates.

The company has sold off some less-expensive brands and is cutting jobs to try to save costs.  It has also cut debt by more than $1 billion since early 2008.

But people are still not buying as much at restaurants and convenience stores, keeping pressure on sales.
 
As part of a joint venture, Constellation is trying targeted promotions and new packages like 24-ounce cans of Corona beer to try to boost sales in those channels.
 
Also in the basket:

Christmas orders bring labor shortages in China export hubs
 
Personal spending surges, jobless claims rise
 
Macy's said in exclusive deal with Ellen Tracy (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out who's in charge at Aeropostale. 
 
No, seriously, who is in charge?
 
The company announced today that Julian Geiger was leaving the teen apparel retailer. (The press release was apparently written under the auspices of the Lawyers Full Employment Act.)
 
But instead of appointing one leader, Aeropostale went with co-CEOs. President and Chief Merchandising Officer Mindy Meads and Chief Operating Officer Thomas Johnson were named to share the top spot.
 
The news release does not detail how Meads and Johnson will divide the CEO duties.
 
What we do know is that the history of corporate America is punctuated with co-CEO arrangements that have gone awry.
 
When Kraft was spun out from Altria in 2001, Roger Deromedi and Betsy Holden were named co-CEOs. The relationship ended with Holden being demoted in late 2003, and eventually leaving the company. Kraft continued to struggle with lackluster innovation and seemingly ever-present restructuring, and Deromedi was out by 2006.
 
John Reed and Sanford Weill ran Citigroup together for a while before falling out. Reed even left the corporate world for a time.
 
A deep executive bench is always a plus, but in the end, one person at the top seems to be the final answer.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Rite Aid cuts view after latest loss; shares skid
 
H&M August sales disappoint as shoppers hunt for bargains
 
Buffett sings praises of a Chinese suit (WSJ)

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out Kraft slashing its supplier base.
 
Yes, Kraft is doing more than just trying to buy Cadbury.  The company is still operating its business and part of that is the process of looking to improve its margins.
 
Kraft told Reuters it plans to cut its supplier base to less than half of its 70,000 companies.
 
"We're essentially taking a white sheet of paper and saying 'what is the right number of suppliers to support this particular category, who are they, what is the capability we need for now and in the future, and does the current supplier base have that,' " Julia Brown, senior vice president of procurement at Kraft, said.
 
Suppliers have been under pressure in recent years as companies look to work with fewer vendors that operate more as partners.
 
The recovery is actually expected to make things worse for some suppliers as they find out they cannot get financing to ramp up operations as their customers start looking to buy from them again.
 
The winners will likely find even more business as they work closer with companies.
 
For the loser, it could be "supply-side wreckonomics."
 
Also in the basket:
 
McDonald's same-store sales up 2.2 percent
 
Talbots loss narrower than expected
 
Jewelry retailer Signet profit tops estimates
 
Speedo extends sponsor deal with Michael Phelps

(Reuters photo)