Jobs, jobs, jobs

October 2, 2009

It’s hardly any surprise that today’s employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor is front and center this morning as traders ready for a worse-than-expected number on the amount of positions shed during September. Consensus had it at around 180K down, but that was before a slew of data caused many to doubt their original call including Goldman Sachs, which upped its forecast to -250K.

The steep selloff in stocks and rally in the stocks Thursday, though, mean much of the worst is could already be priced in. Treasury bonds have moved higher still in early trade, with the 10-Yr yield down 2.7BPs to a meager 3.15%.

Wrightson ICAP is calling for 225K down, which would be worse than the originally reported 216K slimming in August. If September shows a steeper decline, it would also disrupt the narrative that that bulls have clung to: the jobs situation is still terrible but it’s been steadily becoming less terrible.

The unemployment rate, however, is likely to be a bigger mover, especially if it jumps more than the 0.1% that many expect. Here, too, Wrightson is expecting a worse reading of between 9.9% to 10.0%. Hours worked could also cause tongues to wag if it increases, indicating that companies are more willing to have existing workers work longer than hire new ones.

The report can be found here at 8:30am.

One comment

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The job losses were a lot worse than the reported number….

The number of employed Americans in August was 139,649,000. The number of employed Americans in September was 138,864,000. By my calculation that is 785,000 less Americans employed. Can someone check my math. The unemployed only went up by 214,000. How could that be?

The labor force declined by 571,000 people. I guess they all hit the lottery or they became independently wealthy. The government uses these figures to obfuscate the true picture.

The headline on every website should be 785,000 LESS AMERICANS EMPLOYED IN SEPTEMBER.

Also the dreaded birth death adjustment added another 34,000 phantom jobs in September bringing the toal for the year to 707,000 new phantom jobs supposedly created by small businesses. nns-daily-dose-of-reality/discussions/th e-plan-is-unraveling-unemployment-figure s-are-a-fraud

Posted by Sekar | Report as abusive