No easy ride for Nomura

October 28, 2009

By its own standards, Nomura has come a long way in the past year. The Japanese bank now generates half its revenues — and the majority of its profits — outside its home country. But measured against the global investment banks it is hoping to challenge, Nomura still has some way to go.

Twelve months ago, the Japanese bank was just beginning to absorb the European and Asian operations of Lehman Brothers. The results for the three months to the end of September are evidence of its progress.

Nomura has escaped its domestic roots while returning to solid profitability. The Lehman effect was particularly visible in its markets division, which accounted for half the bank’s revenues as trading rebounded. For example, some 60 per cent of fixed income revenues were generated in Europe.

Like other investment banks, Nomura is bound to see trading revenues fall as markets stabilise and bid-offer spreads narrow. It also shares in the industry’s uncertainty about future capital demands from regulators.

At least Nomura has erred on the side of caution: Following its $5 billion share issue earlier this month, its Tier One capital ratio has swelled to 17 per cent, the top end of its peer group.

In other areas, however, Nomura still faces its own particular challenges. Its investment banking division, which underwrites equity issues and advises on mergers and acquisitions, is still in the red.

This reflects the cost of guaranteed bonuses for Lehman bankers, and lacklustre activity in Japan. The guarantees disappear at the end of this year, which should make Nomura’s cost base more flexible.

Nevertheless, the bank’s determination to carve out a greater share of the investment banking pie suggests it will be investing in the business for several years to come.

The bank’s credit rating, which is at least two notches lower than those of its bulge-bracket rivals, makes it harder for Nomura to do business with some counterparties, while also raising its cost of funding.

Nomura is also still attempting to establish itself in the United States, which remains the world’s biggest source of investment banking revenues. Though it is hiring aggressively, it may need another acquisition to establish a proper foothold on Wall Street.

Such criticisms may seem harsh for a bank that, as recently as twelve months ago, barely featured outside Japan. But if Nomura wants to compete with other global investment banks, it will judged by their standards.

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