U.S. forges risky new weapon for mortgage battle

December 29, 2009

Rolfe Winkler2.jpgUncle Sam is adding a risky new weapon in its battle to shore up the housing market. Granted, the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller figures showed a fifth month of improvement. But analysts had already discounted that, expecting prices to fall 10 percent or more next year as various government supports are wound down.

The Treasury’s Christmas gift of almost unlimited support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might be able to fend some of that off. But it will be a tough fight. A housing tax credit — of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers — ends in April. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Administration plans to tighten its loose lending standards as its reserve fund has dwindled.

Moreover, mortgage rates can reasonably be expected to increase as the government ends purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Treasury’s $220 billion buyback program ends this week. The Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion program ceases in March.

And then there’s the continuing flood of Treasuries to finance the federal deficit. Morgan Stanley estimates that could drive 30-year mortgage rates back above 7.5 percent, an effective 40 percent increase in the cost of financing home purchases. Even a smaller jump risks driving buyers from the market, which could force house prices down.

Then there are foreclosures. Credit Suisse expects 4.2 million next year and estimates that 3.2 million must be prevented to keep prices stable. That’s a tall order, considering mixed results from modification efforts that mostly focused on extending terms or lowering interest payments.

Banks, mortgage bond investors and servicers are loath to go further, by forgiving principal, because it’s either a direct hit to capital or tricky to do under current bond documents.

Enter Fannie and Freddie. With unlimited support from Treasury the two have theoretically unlimited capacity to eat losses, useful to Treasury if it wants to finance an expanded modification program that includes principal forgiveness.

It’s a tempting weapon to deploy ahead of midterm elections. But financing principal writedowns with taxpayer money only adds to America’s debt burden while rewarding irresponsible borrowers and lenders.

Comments

That rise in interest rates is seriously going to put a damper on housing prices. 7.5% will have a huge impact, 2500 more per year in interest per 100k, so if you live in california, and buy a home for 300,000, you are going to end up paying 7500 more in interest per year. That’s 600 per month plus your normal mortgage payment. i sell Modern Contemporary Furniture and reading stories like this doesn’t make me want to spend money, I just hope i can make it through the next economic storm here.

Posted by Interiorexpress | Report as abusive
 

Rolfe, Please don’t be reading ‘my tealeaves’. Nice collection of ‘possible’ data..but lets come back here in a year and see how many of your dots connected. MAYBE TIME FOR PROZAC. HAPPY new year !!

Posted by gregoryhugh | Report as abusive
 

US housing is set to take a a turn for the worse in 2010 as strategic foreclosures, currently 25% of all foreclosures accelerate. Why stay in a mortgage when your neighbors are renting previously foreclosed homes at 1/3 your monthly mortgage payment? Read a wild California foreclosure story at http://storyburn.com

Posted by voomies | Report as abusive
 

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