Comments on: Oil’s Cassandra dies but his questions live on http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2010/08/09/oils-cassandra-dies-but-his-questions-live-on/ Mon, 17 Jun 2013 22:19:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: CDN_finance http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2010/08/09/oils-cassandra-dies-but-his-questions-live-on/comment-page-1/#comment-3305 CDN_finance Tue, 10 Aug 2010 05:05:58 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/?p=3709#comment-3305 Also wanted to add that the CDN Oil Sands, even under the most optimized scenario, can only produce maybe 5mboe/d... a deepwater ban in the Gulf of Mexico would kill thrice that production. The oil sands are no answer to anything - but if China and America want to spend their money here to develop it, I won't stop em. We don't say no to jobs here! and we'll make sure it stays (or at least gets progressively more) clean. Also wanted to add that the CDN Oil Sands, even under the most optimized scenario, can only produce maybe 5mboe/d… a deepwater ban in the Gulf of Mexico would kill thrice that production. The oil sands are no answer to anything – but if China and America want to spend their money here to develop it, I won’t stop em. We don’t say no to jobs here! and we’ll make sure it stays (or at least gets progressively more) clean.

]]> By: CDN_finance http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2010/08/09/oils-cassandra-dies-but-his-questions-live-on/comment-page-1/#comment-3304 CDN_finance Tue, 10 Aug 2010 05:02:29 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/?p=3709#comment-3304 There is peak oil now - it should be obvious from a price stand point. Five years ago oil was below $20/bbl despite war in the region; now it's fairly steady between $70-80 as the war draws to an end. The USD has fallen maybe 20% against the 'intl basket' in that time, so that is still a tripling in price even as supply has been increasing. I think the main factor is demand rose far too quickly with China's economic experiments turning out to be powerful growth engines. Even as the world fell into this terrible recession demand didn't shrink, and supply still can't keep up. This recession won't last forever - on the other side of it you can bet your bottom dollar that oil prices will rise again rapidly - not quite like 07 but not far behind either. There is peak oil now – it should be obvious from a price stand point. Five years ago oil was below $20/bbl despite war in the region; now it’s fairly steady between $70-80 as the war draws to an end. The USD has fallen maybe 20% against the ‘intl basket’ in that time, so that is still a tripling in price even as supply has been increasing.

I think the main factor is demand rose far too quickly with China’s economic experiments turning out to be powerful growth engines. Even as the world fell into this terrible recession demand didn’t shrink, and supply still can’t keep up. This recession won’t last forever – on the other side of it you can bet your bottom dollar that oil prices will rise again rapidly – not quite like 07 but not far behind either.

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