Jul 13, 2014 23:14 UTC

German soccer glory was predictable – with luck

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By Robert Cole

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Brazil’s World Cup was first-rate entertainment thanks to its many surprising results. For its part Breakingviews, also somewhat surprisingly, predicted that Germany would win the competition as long ago as last Christmas.

Jun 18, 2014 21:29 UTC

U.S. home affordability on way to lowest in years

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By Daniel Indiviglio and Richard Beales

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

U.S. homes may soon be as unaffordable as they have been in decades. With the Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates, house prices rising and incomes not keeping pace, the dream of home ownership – cheaper after the 2008 downturn – is receding again for many. A new Breakingviews calculator shows that by 2017 homebuyers may have to stretch once again.

Jun 3, 2014 03:51 UTC

China index: Property helps slowdown drag on

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By Katrina Hamlin

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Our indicator stalled at 90.8 in April, just a touch up on March. The home front still looks sluggish. Rail cargo and truck sales fell while exports were flat. Property was a drag: average monthly sales growth from January to April was 17 pct, down from 22 pct last year.

May 15, 2014 19:37 UTC

Where should AstraZeneca shares be trading?

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By Chris Hughes
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Investors are putting a lot of faith in Pfizer succeeding in its $100 billion-plus quest to acquire UK pharmaceuticals rival AstraZeneca. The right price for the target’s share price can be seen as the weighted average of two possible outcomes – a sale to Pfizer or a standalone future. A new Breakingviews calculator shows why the market seems to think a transaction will probably happen.

May 13, 2014 04:02 UTC

Japan index: Wages bigger worry than spending

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

With the sales tax rising from April 1, the shopping spree that pushed the Breakingviews Abenomics Index to a 12-year high in March has ended. But sluggish wages are a bigger threat than a consumption freeze. If pay disappoints, the spending gloom may become more persistent.

May 7, 2014 06:11 UTC

Alibaba’s big reveal: high growth, odd governance

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By John Foley 

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

There are two things to know about Alibaba, which filed for an initial public offering in New York on May 6. First, China’s dominant e-commerce company is huge, and could be even bigger. Second, new investors will have little say in how it is run – the founders are keeping a firm grip.

Apr 29, 2014 06:56 UTC

China index: Economy is creeping and crawling

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By Katrina Hamlin

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Our index touched 90.7, slightly up from 89.5 a month earlier. But domestic activity still looks sluggish. Rail freight volumes are lower; truck sales are slower; steel production is stalling; and growth in air travel is unusually modest. Dwindling exports offer little support.

Apr 10, 2014 02:15 UTC

Japan index: Economy is ready to take on tax hike

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Breakingviews Abenomics Index climbed to a six-year high in February, suggesting the economy has enough strength to withstand this month’s sales tax increase. Wages and inflation expectations firmed up, while hopes of further monetary easing pushed bond yields lower.

Mar 11, 2014 02:14 UTC

Japan index: Weak demand shows need for stimulus

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Breakingviews Abenomics Index inched higher in January. But manufacturing stumbled, and the trade deficit zoomed, suggesting anaemic demand both at home and abroad. With wages subdued and sales taxes about to rise, the economy may need a fresh dose of monetary easing.

Feb 27, 2014 06:56 UTC

SoftBank’s Alibaba stake both blessing and burden

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By Una Galani

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

SoftBank’s investment in Alibaba must be one of the most successful of all time. Billionaire chief Masayoshi Son injected just $20 million into the Chinese e-commerce giant in 2000. Today, the 36.7 percent shareholding accounts for a large chunk of Japanese group’s market value. As Alibaba heads toward an initial public offering, however, Son’s investment blessing may become a burden.

COMMENT

Not sure I buy your conclusion, but a great analysis up to that point. While you are right of course that when Alibaba goes public, investors can simply go there. But surely that doesn’t mean that the valuation of Softbank, affected as it is by Alibaba, will decrease?
If anything, it should increase since the valuation will be straightforward.

As of now there are widely varying estimates of Alibaba’s value, including yours. That uncertainty will no longer be present once the IPO is filed. On top of that, there is a good chance that Alibaba shares will rocket up after listing, since interest in it as well as projections of its future value, are huge. All of this should allow Softbank to lessen that 16% conglomerate discount.

We shall see.

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