Breakingviews

Abenomics pulls Japan from its post-Lehman slump

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies have beaten back the Japanese economy’s post-Lehman blues. Breakingviews’ Abenomics Index was at its highest level in March since September 2008. And that was before the Bank of Japan launched its bold money-printing pledge.

Polls give strife-hit Pakistan a shot at stability

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Pakistan’s election may just give the troubled country a shot at stability. Investors will discount much of the hyperbole from political parties about the economic possibilities ahead. The question is whether the poll – the first proper democratic transfer of power in Pakistan’s history – can provide stable, effective leadership that keeps the army out of politics while uniting the country in dealing with Taliban-sponsored sectarian violence.

Three-digit yen no longer a one-way bet

By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The yen is no longer a one-way bet. The Japanese currency has slumped to 100 against the dollar for the first time in four years. That’s a 16 percent slide since Shinzo Abe’s landslide election victory in December. At the time, Breakingviews predicted his victory would herald a three-digit yen. But there are good reasons to be sceptical about a further decline.

India’s bickering lawmakers test investors’ faith

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

The $12 billion foreign investors have poured into Indian equities this year is not a gift: it’s a bet that Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will keep his promise to lift the country’s GDP growth from its 10-year low. But the government can’t deliver without lawmakers doing their part. The problem is that India’s national parliament, never a bastion of efficiency, has simply stopped working.

Man Utd about to discover Fergie’s true worth

By Peter Thal Larsen

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Alex Ferguson’s retirement should worry Manchester United’s fans and investors as much as it delights long-suffering rivals. His triumphant 26-year reign has gone hand-in-hand with the soccer club’s equally impressive financial rise. Ferguson’s departure will reveal how much of that value depends on the manager.

UK minus EU is another loser from Lawson

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Nigel Lawson is back in the ring and as sharp as ever. The UK chancellor who dismissed his critics as “teenage scribblers” in the 1980s – as he fomented a housing bubble that weighed on the economy for half a decade – is now throwing his weight behind a UK exit from the EU. It will make Britain stronger, he jabs. Someone should throw in his towel.

Record aircraft orders point to global growth bump

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

The aviation industry’s incurable optimism is like a seatbelt sign for investors. That’s the conclusion of a Breakingviews study of global airline orders and economic growth. Aggressive aircraft orders have an inverse relationship with expansion in global GDP a year later. If that affiliation holds, big orders by Asian airlines point to rising risks of economic turbulence next year.

Hong Kong dockers’ pay sets tone for future strife

By Peter Thal Larsen

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Hong Kong’s port strike is over, but the tensions that sparked it remain. Dockers are feeling the squeeze of Hong Kong’s rising living costs, while port operators face challenges from China’s slowing and shifting economy. Labour relations look set to stay tense.

Malaysia poll offers only short-term relief

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Malaysia’s ruling coalition has narrowly survived a strong challenge to its 56-year-old rule. While the results of the country’s general election on May 5 came as a relief for investors, the poll showed a widening racial divide. That doesn’t portend well for the economy.

Ailing South Korea needs monetary remedy

By Andy Mukherjee

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

The Bank of Korea is making a big mistake by not cutting interest rates more aggressively. A weaker Japanese yen and tepid global demand are squeezing the country’s exporters from Hyundai Motor to steelmaker Posco. Though demand from China is still growing, shipments to Europe are falling, while those to the United States have stalled (See graphic).