Abenomics can clear Japan’s demographic hurdle
By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Japan has a serious demographic disadvantage: its population is both shrinking and ageing. But the situation is not so dismal – at least not yet – that it will wreck Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to revive the economy.
Russia’s central bank can avoid “putinisation”
By Pierre Briançon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Elvira Nabiullina has the worst possible credential for the job of head of the Russian central bank: she is a close ally of Vladimir Putin. The former economy minister, currently the Russian president’s chief economic adviser, will take the new post in June. Her appointment has been greeted with some scepticism.
China’s solar bonds leave dim hope of payback
By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Dim prospects for payback await bondholders in China’s Suntech Power Holdings. The stricken solar panel maker, unlikely to meet a $541 million bond payment due on March 15, has persuaded over half its foreign creditors to hold off for two months. On purely financial grounds, it’s hard to see how the bondholders could come away with anything in the event of a default. What value remains is a bet that China values foreign investors too much to snub them outright.
China starts 2013 the way it can’t hope to go on
By John Foley
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
China began 2013 with the same old economic model. Growth for the first two months of the year was driven mainly by exports and real estate. The increase in construction appears to have been fuelled by credit. The current trajectory can continue only by pumping ever more leverage, and risk, into the system.
Review: The massacre of Britain at Bretton Woods
By Martin Hutchinson
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Benn Steil calls his study “The Battle of Bretton Woods” but in reality the 1944 conference which created a new financial system after World War Two was more of a massacre of British interests by the U.S. Treasury’s Harry Dexter White.
This is viewing history with today’s perspective. 1944 was the time when the world war was at the beginning of the end. In reality Japan and Germany were defeated by the industrial and military might and resolve of the USA. Why should not Bretton Woods be skewed toward the USA, at that time in history? The world situation is certainly different now. The downfall of Bretton Woods was due to the devaluation of the dollar because of the unrestrained spending of the US government in the sixties. Emerging market countries are playing a larger global economic role and should have more input. Maybe we need a Bretton Woods II given the impacts of today’s dollar, euro, and yuan.
China’s currency inflows could be illusory
By John Foley
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
China’s currency is a fickle measure of confidence in the country’s fortunes. For much of 2012 the yuan stagnated, causing investors to hold back on previous bets on its appreciation. Recent data suggests they have been piling back in to the Chinese currency – but that may not last.
UK policy rhetoric flies in the face of reality
By Edward Hadas
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
When words and actions don’t match up, the problem is usually overly ambitious promises. In the debate on economic policy in the UK, the failure is in the present – the government’s description of fiscal and monetary policy flies in the face of reality.
Southeast Asia is wrong to neglect inflation risk
By Andy Mukherjee
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
Inflation in the Philippines reached a five-month high in February; prices rose the most in 20 months in Indonesia. Yet, there is no word from the central banks of Southeast Asia’s fast-growing nations on when they are likely to raise interest rates. While their coyness to signal policy tightening is understandable, it is nevertheless a mistake.
Markets wrong to downplay Italian political risk
By Neil Unmack
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Italian bond spreads have risen nearly one percentage point since Italy’s election. It could have been worse – and considering the risks, it should.
Three roadmaps for an urbanizing China
By John Foley
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
China is at an urban crossroads. Almost 53 per cent of its population lived in cities and towns at the end of 2012. In another two decades, China will probably be nearing the 80 percent urbanization level common in the West – suggesting some 1.1 billion city-dwellers. Premier designate Li Keqiang wants urbanization to put people first. The question is: where in China will he put them?
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