Breakingviews

Hugo Dixon: The optimist’s guide to Greece

By Hugo Dixon
July 27, 2015

There are so many ways things could go wrong in Greece that it’s easy to miss how things could also go right. The good scenario involves the ECB buying up Greek bonds, the lifting of capital controls and a deal on debt relief – all by year-end.

Hugo Dixon: Greek deal leaves bitter aftertaste

By Hugo Dixon
July 13, 2015

Berlin was right to point out that Athens had lost Europe’s trust. But by pushing the Greeks so hard, Germany is also losing Europe’s trust. The summit’s eventual outcome is reasonably fair if tough. But both leaders, Merkel and Tsipras, need to work hard to rebuild trust.

Hugo Dixon: Syriza split best outcome for Greece

By Hugo Dixon
July 11, 2015

PM Alexis Tsipras secured overwhelming parliamentary backing for his U-turn on austerity and reform, but his party has splintered. A new government, which is more serious about implementing whatever bailout programme is negotiated with creditors, will now probably be formed.

Hugo Dixon: Greece will struggle to stay in euro

By Hugo Dixon
July 5, 2015

After the people gave an emphatic “No” to the creditors’ proposals, there are still several ways Athens could avoid the drachma. But none seems terribly likely. All routes will lead to further hardship.

Hugo Dixon: Greeks choose between bad and terrible

By Hugo Dixon
July 2, 2015

Voting “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum would mean Greece suffers at least two years of recession. Voting “No” would bring financial havoc in the short run followed by the return of the drachma, hyperinflation and deep-seated economic depression. The right answer is “Yes”.

Chinese stock markets need more than lip service

June 30, 2015

The selloff is dramatic but only affects the relatively few people who own equities. A wider risk is that a prolonged slump would slow reforms and undermine faith in China’s rulers. In the short run, overt state support may be the most effective way to avoid losing credibility.

Hugo Dixon: It’s still possible to stop Grexit

By Hugo Dixon
June 29, 2015

Athens has declared a six-day bank holiday after talks with its creditors broke down. But there are several ways Greece can still avoid quitting the euro. The most obvious is to vote in the coming referendum for the terms offered by the euro zone and International Monetary Fund.

Anshu Jain’s painful lessons for new Deutsche boss

June 8, 2015

The co-CEO’s departure has pleased investors irked by the bank’s lack of progress on cutting costs and boosting capital. Jain was slow to re-engineer what proved to be a flawed business model for the post-crisis era. New broom John Cryan can learn from his predecessor’s mistakes.

Hope yet for creditors in China property-bond saga

May 28, 2015

Defaulting developer Kaisa has lost white-knight bidder Sunac. That leaves foreign bondholders dealing with the company’s discredited chairman. However, China’s real estate market is recovering. The Shenzhen-based company may even be able to hammer together a better deal.

Hugo Dixon: Greece needs a second election

By Hugo Dixon
May 26, 2015

Most scenarios facing the country are bleak, but there is one outcome that is not too bad. This will require the prime minister not only to eat his words, but also to call a new election to get a fresh mandate. The timing is tough, but just doable.