Philippines U.S. “goodbye” can fix China FDI gap

October 21, 2016

President Rodrigo Duterte's boast of ditching America for China plays well in Beijing. Cash is a major motivation. China is under-invested in the Philippines compared to elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Funds from the People's Republic can help Duterte deliver on big promises.

Inflation is next nerve-jangler for investors

October 18, 2016

After years of undershooting price targets, some rate-setters, including Mark Carney in Britain, are now talking about tolerating overshoots. Equity winners will vary depending on whether inflation is of the good or bad variety. But global bonds are losers either way.

Inflation shows up at wrong time for Mark Carney

October 18, 2016

UK consumer prices are rising at their fastest pace in nearly two years. It should be a proud moment for the Bank of England chief, who has been struggling to achieve exactly this. Unfortunately, the pound’s fall is going to give him a bit too much of what he wanted.

Breakdown: The dismal art of forecasting sterling

October 14, 2016

Most economists agree the pound has further to fall, but there is a wide range of views on how far. Long-term forecasts are an unfortunate necessity, but they are stab in the dark when it comes to a currency that is more in the thrall of politics than economics.

Review: Greenspan as saint, sinner, political hack

October 7, 2016

An era of cheap money makes it easy to oversimplify the former Fed chairman's record. Sebastian Mallaby's new book, however, revels in the complexities of Greenspan's intellect, instinct and ego. His runs in Washington circles and spirited personal life are the real surprises.

Hadas: May offers British-style Great Leap Forward

October 7, 2016

The UK prime minister's "quiet revolution" won't rival Mao Zedong's original in tragedy, but her mix of autocratic politics, nationalistic hope and economic nonsense is eerily reminiscent. A Brexit that offers less free trade and more xenophobia is a recipe for economic decline.

Germany gets economic rebalancing only half right

September 29, 2016

The country no longer depends on exports for growth. Strong domestic demand is the key driver these days, a government-commissioned report says. Yet the current account surplus is still rising. Blame not only Angela Merkel’s fiscal restraint but also weak corporate investment.

Deutsche Bank has airbags – but only one matters

September 27, 2016

The German lender’s market value has shrunk below 14.5 bln euros on fears of big fines. Yet markets seem calm about knock-on effects. It’s less that post-crisis bank rules are fit for purpose, and more that Chancellor Merkel would have to be brave or foolish to let Deutsche fail.

Fed “forward guidance” blows too much smoke

September 22, 2016

The U.S. central bank again declined to raise rates, leaving what hedgie Dan Loeb called the crack cocaine of loose monetary policy in place. The Fed counts talking to the market as one of its tools. But its story has changed so much that it might do better being less chatty.

BOJ buys time and friends with yield-based reboot

September 21, 2016

The Bank of Japan has ditched its money-printing goals, pledging instead to keep 10-year interest rates at zero until inflation exceeds 2 pct. The central bank’s latest overhaul means it is less likely to run short of debt to buy, and eases the financial sector’s pain.