Breakingviews

Unruly markets could derail Abenomics

February 12, 2016

A weak yen and buoyant stocks were key to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fight against deflation. A flight from risk has reversed those gains and overwhelmed the Bank of Japan’s surprise shift to negative interest rates. The turmoil threatens Abe’s whole economic project.

Darkening German economy could be Merkel’s nemesis

February 9, 2016

Falling industrial production and weak exports suggest emerging markets may be chipping away at Germany’s economic miracle. Chancellor Angela Merkel has ridden out a refugee crisis. But if economic weakness is allowed to reach labour markets, her political fate could be sealed.

China index: Xi’s annus horribilis

February 1, 2016

Breakingviews’ Tea Leaf Index may have ended the year on a modest high, but a look back over 2015 shows China’s economy moving slowly. Sagging steel production, exports and rail freight contributed to the lowest 12-month average since President Xi Jinping first took office.

Ireland has limited shelter against Brexit storm

January 26, 2016

The Irish state is right to fret about a UK exit from the EU. It could knock 20 pct off trade between the two countries and hit Ireland’s economic recovery. Rebranding Dublin as a financial hub would help – but requires Germany to beef up the euro zone’s half-done banking union.

Davos presents human display of volatility

January 22, 2016

As markets swing up and down, so do the fortunes of those parading down the Promenade at the World Economic Forum. Some of last year’s lords of the Alpine dance, like Anshu Jain or Andre Esteves, have exited, making room for debutantes. For some, this will be their last Davos.

VW plea from Brussels confuses cause and effect

January 20, 2016

EU officials are urging the German carmaker to compensate Europeans like U.S drivers. VW’s two-tier scandal response, however, simply reflects the weaker emissions regime put in place by diesel-loving policymakers. Stricter standards will warrant tougher enforcement – next time.

Cox: Trump set to invade Davos if in spirit only

January 19, 2016

The blustery real estate mogul isn’t due to attend the World Economic Forum with other business and political leaders, but the force behind his unlikely campaign for the White House will. Populism finds its roots in the inequality that Davos both represents and tries to solve.

China’s just-so growth no balm for slowdown fears

January 19, 2016

The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.9 pct last year, in line with government targets. The official picture of a gradual slowdown is at odds with market jitters. Yet the numbers do little to ease investors’ key concerns: yuan devaluation and the risk of a messy debt crisis.

Guest view: Euro zone needs workable banking union

By Guest Contributor
January 12, 2016

The 19 member states have so far failed to put in place a full regime of bank oversight, argues former Citi exec William Rhodes. As U.S. and euro zone interest rate policies diverge, this is a big risk. To complete banking union, agreement on proper deposit insurance is a must.

China’s new economy most vulnerable to stock slide

January 8, 2016

Recent market jitters have dragged valuations for Shanghai-listed groups below their 10-year average. But the Shenzhen bourse, which is dominated by private sector firms, remains relatively expensive. A loss of confidence by retail investors risks choking more vibrant groups.