Breakingviews

Labour to gain from “follow the money” UK voting

April 24, 2015

People vote with their wallets. The governing Conservative coalition may earn credit for presiding over five years of low interest rates and a strongish pound. But a Breakingviews calculator suggests a weaker record on growth, house prices and stocks could swing votes to Labour.

Nigeria’s democratic change is a real positive

By Edward Hadas
April 1, 2015

Africa’s biggest economy is set for its first peaceful transfer of power. Election winner Muhammadu Buhari, a 1980s junta leader, will find ruling harder now. Meaningful reform will take years. Still, better governance is good news for the populace and outside investors alike.

Hugo Dixon: Grexit still unlikely after Syriza win

By Hugo Dixon
January 26, 2015

A resounding election victory for the radical left party has pushed Greece closer to quitting the euro zone. But Syriza should be able to cut a deal with the country’s European creditors to avoid bankruptcy – provided both sides are rational.

Abe wins election, but wage trial will be tougher

December 15, 2014

The ruling party’s solid election victory has renewed the Japanese prime minister’s mandate to lift wages and end deflation. Pay hikes now depend on better productivity, or the promise of it. That will not materialize quickly.

Big Abe win will rekindle hope in Japan reforms

December 5, 2014

Surveys predict a landslide victory for the prime minister’s ruling alliance in Dec. 14 elections. A strong popular mandate would weaken challenges from inside the Liberal Democratic Party, and embolden Shinzo Abe to pursue his anti-deflation campaign with renewed vigour.

How to make Japan’s tax timetable more credible

November 19, 2014

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seeking a fresh political mandate to delay next year’s planned increase in the sales tax by 18 months. But fragile demand means investors will be sceptical of the new schedule. A better strategy would be to link the tax hike to growth in real wages.

Close presidential race may slow Indonesia reforms

July 9, 2014

Popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo faces a tough challenge from ex-general Prabowo Subianto in the country’s presidential poll. While the latter’s nationalistic talk makes investors edgy, a slim win for the former could also dim hopes of strong leadership and lasting change.

Modi’s big win gives India way out of policy limbo

May 16, 2014

Voters have handed the opposition leader their most decisive mandate since 1984. With his government’s stability assured, Narendra Modi need not put up with allies’ whims. But passing bills like tax reforms through parliament’s upper house will still be a challenge.

South Africa needs neighbors’ growth rates

May 2, 2014

Two decades after Nelson Mandela became president, the post-apartheid generation will vote for the first time in the May 7 election. The ANC represents his political legacy, but that’s undermined by the party’s weak economic results. Maybe the “Born Frees” can help change that.

No quick wins for Egypt’s new Islamist president

June 25, 2012

For the Muslim Brotherhood, victory is bittersweet. The top job carries little power and might not last long. Securing an international aid deal would be the fastest way to jumpstart the economy and consolidate support. But donors may look on Egypt just as warily as before.