Breakingviews

Cameron has work cut out to sustain relief rally

May 8, 2015

UK stocks and bonds, and the pound, have jumped on the Conservatives’ surprise election success. That’s to be expected given fears of a messy outcome. But the result leaves open questions on EU membership and Scotland. Such uncertainties could hold back investment and growth.

UK politics is failing the trust test

By Hugo Dixon
May 4, 2015

In the run-up to the May 7 election, the public has lambasted leaders of the established parties for breaking promises and lack of candour. While the critique is healthy, Britain has yet to give birth to leaders who score high on integrity. This is needed, not just in the UK.

Ready-reckoning the markets post-UK election

April 29, 2015

Next week’s British general election is unlikely to produce a clear winner. But a government will eventually be formed, even if it takes a second vote. Different medium-term trends will emerge after the inevitable short-run volatility in sterling, gilts and UK-listed stocks.

Labour to gain from “follow the money” UK voting

April 24, 2015

People vote with their wallets. The governing Conservative coalition may earn credit for presiding over five years of low interest rates and a strongish pound. But a Breakingviews calculator suggests a weaker record on growth, house prices and stocks could swing votes to Labour.

Nigeria’s democratic change is a real positive

By Edward Hadas
April 1, 2015

Africa’s biggest economy is set for its first peaceful transfer of power. Election winner Muhammadu Buhari, a 1980s junta leader, will find ruling harder now. Meaningful reform will take years. Still, better governance is good news for the populace and outside investors alike.

Hugo Dixon: Grexit still unlikely after Syriza win

By Hugo Dixon
January 26, 2015

A resounding election victory for the radical left party has pushed Greece closer to quitting the euro zone. But Syriza should be able to cut a deal with the country’s European creditors to avoid bankruptcy – provided both sides are rational.

Abe wins election, but wage trial will be tougher

December 15, 2014

The ruling party’s solid election victory has renewed the Japanese prime minister’s mandate to lift wages and end deflation. Pay hikes now depend on better productivity, or the promise of it. That will not materialize quickly.

Big Abe win will rekindle hope in Japan reforms

December 5, 2014

Surveys predict a landslide victory for the prime minister’s ruling alliance in Dec. 14 elections. A strong popular mandate would weaken challenges from inside the Liberal Democratic Party, and embolden Shinzo Abe to pursue his anti-deflation campaign with renewed vigour.

How to make Japan’s tax timetable more credible

November 19, 2014

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seeking a fresh political mandate to delay next year’s planned increase in the sales tax by 18 months. But fragile demand means investors will be sceptical of the new schedule. A better strategy would be to link the tax hike to growth in real wages.

Close presidential race may slow Indonesia reforms

July 9, 2014

Popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo faces a tough challenge from ex-general Prabowo Subianto in the country’s presidential poll. While the latter’s nationalistic talk makes investors edgy, a slim win for the former could also dim hopes of strong leadership and lasting change.