Portugal dangles between stasis and crisis

November 9, 2015

A group of left-wing parties could replace Portugal’s minority government after a key vote on Nov. 10. This communist-backed coalition could repeal reforms and make the country ineligible for ECB bond-buying. Or it may prove weak, in which case a damaging stalemate could follow.

Argentines may risk austerity to get change

October 26, 2015

Presidential elections will go to a runoff after business favorite Mauricio Macri surprised ruling-party candidate Daniel Scioli in Sunday’s vote. Scioli will now say Macri wants to slash social programs. But voters may rather see Cristina Fernandez’s economics as unsustainable.

After Cristina, a more investor-friendly Argentina

October 23, 2015

No matter who emerges victorious in Sunday’s vote, Latin America’s third-biggest economy will end up more welcoming to investors than under President Fernandez. That’s not saying much. Front-runner Scioli offers a gradual fix for the nation’s woes, but may need to move faster.

Hillary Clinton lands soft punches on Wall Street

October 8, 2015

The White House hopeful has unveiled a slew of ideas for reining in financial excess. Initiatives like imposing risk fees on big banks and improving hedge fund reporting won’t win many friends in the industry. But they’re manageable blows that Wall Street could roll with.

Rob Cox: Poland risks backsliding on free markets

October 1, 2015

The country’s unparalleled success since communism’s fall owes much to its embrace of a liberal economic agenda. As elections approach, the rhetoric from leading politicians suggests a worrisome slippage from the principles that make Poland the envy of its European neighbors.

Rob Cox: The pope, Bernie, Jeremy walk into a bar

September 15, 2015

… only to find they have far too much in common to make a joke of their fictional congregation. On economics, the Vermont senator surging in Democratic polls and the new UK Labour leader owe more to the bishop of Rome’s encyclical than prevailing capitalist orthodoxy.

Hugo Dixon: Greek election may reopen can of worms

By Hugo Dixon
August 31, 2015

Given that no party is likely to emerge from next month’s vote with a majority, it may be hard to form a strong government that can implement the country’s new bailout deal. There’s even a risk that there will be yet more elections. That could tip Greece back into crisis.

Hugo Dixon: Greece needs a second election

By Hugo Dixon
May 26, 2015

Most scenarios facing the country are bleak, but there is one outcome that is not too bad. This will require the prime minister not only to eat his words, but also to call a new election to get a fresh mandate. The timing is tough, but just doable.

Labour to gain from “follow the money” UK voting

April 24, 2015

People vote with their wallets. The governing Conservative coalition may earn credit for presiding over five years of low interest rates and a strongish pound. But a Breakingviews calculator suggests a weaker record on growth, house prices and stocks could swing votes to Labour.

Greek banks will have to live hand to mouth

January 26, 2015

After Syriza’s victory comes a long haggle over debt reduction for Athens. While this drags on, liquidity-short Greek banks have to rely on uncertain funding signed off by the ECB. The struggle to survive will delay dealing with another headache: their mountains of bad debt.