Breakingviews

Exchange podcast: Ruchir Sharma

By Rob Cox
August 1, 2016

Want to know which emerging markets will thrive and which will fail? Listen to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's chief global strategist as he ticks through his ten metrics for determining the fate of economies. Hint: China is in a bad place. His new book, "The Rise and Fall of Nations" has some lessons for the developing world to consider, too.

Investment acronyms shift from optimism to angst

February 2, 2016

BRICS has been buried. Just as well: it was a “Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept”. Now VIIPs and TICKs vie to take its place. But searching for groups of vibrant economies jars with the gloomy mood. The most appropriate new acronym might be a set of worries labelled CFO.

Saudi Aramco IPO carries big investor risks

January 8, 2016

Saudi Arabia has whetted the appetite of potential shareholders with the prospect of listing shares in its state oil company. A sale would give investors access to 18 pct of the world’s oil reserves but little say in how the company is run. The risks could outweigh the rewards.

Gases suppliers caught by two deflating bubbles

December 1, 2015

Linde cut its medium-term EBITDA forecasts by 5 percent, knocking its shares hard. The German industrial gas company is exposed to emerging markets and oil prices. Its dour outlook will blow cold air on the sector, including rival Air Liquide’s $13 bln bid for Airgas.

Hadas: The BRICs are dead. Long live the BRICs!

November 11, 2015

Goldman Sachs coined the acronym in the 2000s when Brazil, Russia, India and China promised the greatest economic shift in a century. Now Goldman is closing its flailing BRIC fund. But poor countries are still gaining on rich ones, and their base for growth is getting more solid.

Russia has levers to cope with oil squeeze

September 3, 2015

A low oil price will dent growth and public revenues, and Russia needs rebalancing. Yet President Vladimir Putin can hold the line by drawing on reserves and even inflating regional deficits, while the rouble’s fall helps competitiveness. That could enable a fragile equilibrium.

ECB bazooka a water pistol for emerging markets

January 23, 2015

Between Mario Draghi’s bond-buying plan and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing splurge, central banks are pumping out $1.5 trillion a year in cheap money. The surprise should boost emerging markets wary of rising rates. But fading growth and falling prices will overwhelm the stimulus.

StanChart equities closure is overdue but welcome

January 8, 2015

The emerging markets bank has pulled the plug on its share trading and underwriting arm, cutting 200 jobs. It’s a rational but still-rare step for a business that suffers from chronic overcapacity. Rivals will feel extra pressure to justify their decision to soldier on.

StanChart equities closure is overdue but welcome

January 8, 2015

The emerging markets bank has pulled the plug on its share trading and underwriting arm, cutting 200 jobs. It’s a rational but still-rare step for a business that suffers from chronic overcapacity. Rivals will feel extra pressure to justify their decision to soldier on.

Where to hide in an emerging market rout

December 30, 2014

Developing nations tend to get into trouble after seven fat years. By that yardstick, a meltdown is due. If rising U.S. interest rates help trigger a crisis, investors will look for relatively safe economies. Hungary, Mexico and the Philippines are the most attractive shelters.