Breakingviews

Hugo Dixon: Greece will struggle to stay in euro

By Hugo Dixon
July 5, 2015

After the people gave an emphatic “No” to the creditors’ proposals, there are still several ways Athens could avoid the drachma. But none seems terribly likely. All routes will lead to further hardship.

Hugo Dixon: Greeks choose between bad and terrible

By Hugo Dixon
July 2, 2015

Voting “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum would mean Greece suffers at least two years of recession. Voting “No” would bring financial havoc in the short run followed by the return of the drachma, hyperinflation and deep-seated economic depression. The right answer is “Yes”.

Euro is poor yardstick for euro existential stress

June 22, 2015

The Greek crisis is compromising FX traders’ reputation for being the first and fastest to react to big news. Currency market signals are currently so muddied that stocks and bonds are better barometers of investors’ views on how close Athens is to default or euro exit.

Hugo Dixon: The big fat Greek blame game

By Hugo Dixon
June 22, 2015

If Greece collapses, the biggest chunk of the blame will go to whoever behaves most unreasonably in the final stages of the current game of chicken. So both sides have an incentive to accommodate each other’s reasonable positions. Hopefully, they realise this.

Hugo Dixon: Greek negotiations need extra time

By Hugo Dixon
June 17, 2015

Despite the inflammatory rhetoric and lack of trust, Athens and its creditors might still be able to do a deal. But to get an agreement, a little more time may be needed. The creditors shouldn’t truncate the talks.

Greece and creditors are not really far apart

By Edward Hadas
June 15, 2015

The brink keeps getting closer, but there’s agreement on broad principles. The fight is over 2 bln euros, 1 pct of Greek GDP and 0.02 pct of euro zone GDP. The damage from failure is many times larger. A deal can be done - if only politics and pride can be overcome.

Anshu Jain’s painful lessons for new Deutsche boss

June 8, 2015

The co-CEO’s departure has pleased investors irked by the bank’s lack of progress on cutting costs and boosting capital. Jain was slow to re-engineer what proved to be a flawed business model for the post-crisis era. New broom John Cryan can learn from his predecessor’s mistakes.

Hugo Dixon: What sort of man is Tsipras?

By Hugo Dixon
June 8, 2015

The next days will define Greece’s PM. He must choose between saving his country and sticking with a bankrupt ideology. If he is brave and smart, he can secure a few more concessions from creditors and a goodish deal for Greece. If not, he will drag Greece into the abyss.

Hugo Dixon: How Greece can cut a goodish deal

By Hugo Dixon
June 4, 2015

Athens’ creditors haven’t quite delivered an ultimatum. Greece can probably get somewhat less austerity and an indication of some debt relief if it plays ball. The PM’s best option is to make one last push for concessions, then sign the deal, even if it splits his party.

For bonds, crowds are more dangerous than Draghi

June 4, 2015

The ECB chief’s relaxed attitude to volatility is fuelling gyrations in euro zone debt markets. But Mario Draghi is only stating the obvious. Supposedly risk-free assets have become some of the most perilous. The biggest hazard for investors is being part of too big a herd.