Review: Euro was the path of least embarrassment

By Edward Hadas
August 14, 2015

Valerie Caton’s history of French policy around the single currency could be read as a chronicle of meetings, position papers and fuzzy compromises. It is better to see a tale of European leaders grudgingly living up to their historic destiny. More of that, and the euro can survive.

Edward Hadas: Stop knocking the euro

By Edward Hadas
July 22, 2015

Ben Bernanke thinks the single currency is failing. He is not alone. But the former Fed boss is too short term and too financial. The euro zone has tough structural economic problems. The currency is different. Its future is political, and bright.

Greek bank salvation may still have sting in tail

July 13, 2015

Greece’s lenders are getting another 25 billion euros in bailout recap money. With a deal in place, more ECB crisis loans should also materialise. But the central bank may not provide them today, and a new Greek bail-in regime raises uncertainty for depositors.

Hugo Dixon: Tsipras looks like he is crumbling

By Hugo Dixon
July 1, 2015

With Athens defaulting to the IMF, public opinion moving against the Greek PM and the banks closed, Tsipras seems desperate for a deal with his creditors. But it is not clear they will cut him any slack. They may prefer to deal with his successor.

Capital controls hit Greek economy at worst time

June 29, 2015

Closing the stricken state’s banks would be a disaster at any time of year. But Athens’ capital controls are kicking in just as one of Greece’s main drivers – tourism – hits peak season. Even if Greeks don’t leave the euro, 2015 will be a writeoff.

Hugo Dixon: It’s still possible to stop Grexit

By Hugo Dixon
June 29, 2015

Athens has declared a six-day bank holiday after talks with its creditors broke down. But there are several ways Greece can still avoid quitting the euro. The most obvious is to vote in the coming referendum for the terms offered by the euro zone and International Monetary Fund.

Euro is poor yardstick for euro existential stress

June 22, 2015

The Greek crisis is compromising FX traders’ reputation for being the first and fastest to react to big news. Currency market signals are currently so muddied that stocks and bonds are better barometers of investors’ views on how close Athens is to default or euro exit.

Swiss caught in the wake of massive FX currents

By Edward Hadas
March 19, 2015

Exposure to the European economy has helped Switzerland. The euro has not. The failure of the franc’s peg to the single currency has cut into expected growth, and leaves the central bank searching for a new approach. The lesson: in currency wars, the little guys usually lose.

ECB bazooka a water pistol for emerging markets

January 23, 2015

Between Mario Draghi’s bond-buying plan and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing splurge, central banks are pumping out $1.5 trillion a year in cheap money. The surprise should boost emerging markets wary of rising rates. But fading growth and falling prices will overwhelm the stimulus.

EU insurers’ solvency is shakier than it looks

December 16, 2014

A quarter of Europe’s insurers would fail to meet a basic gauge of capital health if Japan-style low-yield conditions were to persist, recent stress tests found. But actual euro zone yields are even lower. With the bloc on the brink of deflation, that’s not a reassuring sign.