Breakingviews

Greek deal is rational, predictable, messy

May 25, 2016

Both the IMF and Europe have compromised in Greece’s new debt plan. Athens’ fiscal targets are looser, but less so than the IMF wanted. Its debt costs will fall, but the relief is vague. There’s a hoary cliche about kicking the can down the road. This doesn’t even go that far.

Brussels O2 veto cements BT’s home advantage

May 11, 2016

The EU’s anti-trust tsar has rejected CK Hutchison’s 10.3 billion pound takeover of O2, because it says it would raise mobile prices. That leaves several UK players figuring out next steps. In an industry moving towards packages of mobile, landline, broadband and TV, the winner is the beefed-up BT.

Brexit advocates: heed the tale of Herb Kelleher

May 6, 2016

The co-founder of U.S. budget airline Southwest took the glamour out of air travel. But the increased connectivity has had unexpected benefits - like more scientific breakthroughs, a new study shows. Those who seek a British exit from the EU may be giving up more than they know.

Merkel down not out after Super Sunday defeat

March 14, 2016

Right-wing populists won large gains in three German state elections. Support for Angela Merkel’s coalition is waning. Yet results also show credible and determined mainstream leaders can still woo voters. This may help the chancellor to keep inner-party critics at bay.

Dixon: Turkey deal offers a lot – if it sticks

March 8, 2016

An offer to reduce disorderly migration would cut the risk of Britain leaving the EU and Greece quitting the euro. It would also shore up German Chancellor Merkel’s position, helping stabilise the EU and the Schengen Area. What it won’t do is stop anti-migrant populism in Europe.

Options market reveals depths of UK/EU jitters

February 22, 2016

Sterling is sliding and gilts and the FTSE 100 are underperforming peers because of growing concern that Britons might vote to leave the European Union. But these moves are just the tip of the iceberg. Derivatives show an even deeper pessimism about the outlook for UK assets.

from Hugo Dixon:

Dixon: Investors yet to price in Brexit risks

February 21, 2016

Now Cameron has a deal with the EU, it’s down to the British people to vote. While the risk of Brexit looks less than evens, the economic consequences could be severe. With Boris Johnson bolstering the leave campaign, markets don’t seem to be factoring in the tail risks.

UK business faces its own In-Out dilemma on Europe

January 21, 2016

The British prime minister wants companies not to “hold back” on Britain’s future in Europe. Such a call must be heeded with caution. If the pro-EU debate hinges on what’s good for business – or even worse, the City – it may backfire.

Britain’s exit from Europe: 28 days later

December 24, 2015

Sometime in the future, some notes are found. Purportedly written by an adviser to David Cameron, they chronicle events in the month after the UK voted to leave the European Union. It’s a vision of banker exoduses, surprising new investors and mountains of unsold pork pies.

Dixon: EU-Turkey deal is historic, if it sticks

November 30, 2015

The EU has dangled the prospect that Turkey can join the bloc, offered to liberalise visas and promised the government a chunk of cash in return for Ankara agreeing to stem the flow of migrants to Europe. The snag is that not all of the pact looks deliverable.