Currency market still scarred by Swiss trauma

January 28, 2015

Brutal swings seen just after the Swiss central bank suddenly abandoned its franc cap have faded. But price signals and perplexing moves suggest the extraordinary gyrations left their mark. Singapore’s surprise easing and continued Swiss official musings will add to the jitters.

The rupee looks vulnerable

April 30, 2012

India’s ballooning trade deficit means it has to run just to stand still. Without steady capital inflows, the currency will collapse. The rupee’s 19 percent fall against the dollar over the past year is worrying. Predictions of further decline could become self-fulfilling.

China’s currency inflows could be illusory

March 8, 2013

The country’s banks bought a record amount of foreign currency in January. It suggests investors and exporters are regaining faith in the yuan’s rise. But companies may just be clearing a backlog of cheaply borrowed dollars. Those flows could reverse if China’s currency weakens.

Emerging market woes support higher U.S. yields

August 27, 2013

Treasuries are a leading component of foreign currency reserves. Central bank intervention in strained emerging markets - which sometimes involves selling reserves - is becoming more prevalent. That suggests U.S. bond yields may climb further.