Breakingviews

Hugo Dixon: The optimist’s guide to Greece

By Hugo Dixon
July 27, 2015

There are so many ways things could go wrong in Greece that it’s easy to miss how things could also go right. The good scenario involves the ECB buying up Greek bonds, the lifting of capital controls and a deal on debt relief – all by year-end.

Hugo Dixon: Greek deal leaves bitter aftertaste

By Hugo Dixon
July 13, 2015

Berlin was right to point out that Athens had lost Europe’s trust. But by pushing the Greeks so hard, Germany is also losing Europe’s trust. The summit’s eventual outcome is reasonably fair if tough. But both leaders, Merkel and Tsipras, need to work hard to rebuild trust.

Hugo Dixon: Syriza split best outcome for Greece

By Hugo Dixon
July 11, 2015

PM Alexis Tsipras secured overwhelming parliamentary backing for his U-turn on austerity and reform, but his party has splintered. A new government, which is more serious about implementing whatever bailout programme is negotiated with creditors, will now probably be formed.

Tsipras U-turn only lowers short-term Grexit risks

July 10, 2015

Greece’s latest bailout plan accepts most of what its July 5 referendum rejected. Creditors will have to actively want a Greek exit from the single currency for it to happen now. Yet fresh austerity, capital controls and Athens’ weak reform record mean the truce may not last.

Rob Cox: Uber gets a pass on its Wall Street habit

June 30, 2015

Big banks break rules and pay fines. Traditionally it’s just a cost of doing business. Uber, meanwhile, pays fines when drivers violate regulations that stand in the way of its business model. Nowadays banks attract outrage, but Uber is often forgiven in the name of disruption.

Altice’s $9 bln U.S. foray shows controlled ambition

May 20, 2015

Patrick Drahi’s telecoms group is paying 10.1 times EBITDA to enter the U.S. cable market. But cost-cutting should reduce the multiple, and it could be a springboard for further consolidation. It’s a more conservative step than another mooted deal: a tilt at Time Warner Cable.

BP and Total find downstream respite

April 28, 2015

Strong results in refining and marketing limited the profit fall at the two European majors. With the oil price down, the gains are especially welcome. But downstream overcapacity will bite in the medium term, while upstream businesses remain hostage to the oil market.

French investment banking has less than meets eye

April 23, 2015

Returns at BNP Paribas’ and Societe Generale’s trading and advisory businesses are better than peers. But the pair’s divisions carry less equity against gross assets than rivals. Before dashing in, investors should consider what the return would be with greater leverage restraint.

Hairy deals mean European animal spirits returning

April 15, 2015

Shell-BG and Nokia-Alcatel are complicated, long-mooted deals finally coming to fruition. Exor’s move is just plain ballsy. American firms powered last year’s $3.5 trln global M&A bonanza. With Old World boards and bosses becoming more daring, Europe looks set to catch up.

Nokia will struggle to cut through Alcatel tangle

April 14, 2015

An all-stock takeover by the Finnish company would create a roughly 40 bln euro telecoms equipment giant. Nokia investors are understandably sceptical. A deal would mean another big restructuring and stretch the buyer’s industrial expertise. The French connection adds complexity.