China and India reform hopes are on hold

April 15, 2016

New leaders in both countries raised hopes for restructuring banks and state-owned companies. But current plans are not bold enough while the window for action is narrowing. Beijing’s investment habit and New Delhi’s obstructive bureaucracy are proving stubbornly hard to shift.

China’s just-so growth no balm for slowdown fears

January 19, 2016

The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.9 pct last year, in line with government targets. The official picture of a gradual slowdown is at odds with market jitters. Yet the numbers do little to ease investors’ key concerns: yuan devaluation and the risk of a messy debt crisis.

Managerial competence makes the difference in 2016

By Rob Cox
January 5, 2016

Markets are getting choppier. Capital is becoming more expensive in the world’s largest economy. Globalization is taking big knocks. Economic growth is middling. Good managers will distinguish winners from losers as much as valuable assets do from lousy liabilities.

Rail mega-deal holds ticket to runaway M&A train

December 29, 2015

Canadian Pacific’s $28 bln bid for Norfolk Southern involves an industrial buyer facing low growth and an aggressive investor. The offer is unsolicited, cross-border and legally messy. After a record year of mergers, this one transaction foretells much of what to expect in 2016.

Clinton White House run clouded by home economics

December 28, 2015

The Democrat who could become America’s first female commander-in-chief in November is ahead in early polls and at the bookies. Growth is up and unemployment down under Obama, too. It might not be enough, though: traditionally, voters only reward bigger economic dividends.

Global corporate profit is under serious threat

December 17, 2015

U.S. companies are earning close to the most in five decades as measured against national income. It’s a worldwide trend, with bottom lines far larger as a share of GDP than in 1980. Competition, disruption and tax policy – along with weaker growth – are set to change all that.

Global economy depends on more than India in 2016

December 17, 2015

The subcontinent’s expanding GDP is one of next year’s few economic bright spots. But the sluggish United States and decelerating China will still account for nearly half of global growth. Any negative shocks from the two sputtering engines will reverberate widely.

Turkey has more friends in politics than markets

November 27, 2015

Europe’s recent rapprochement with Ankara is born of necessity. Less porous shared borders will help control the flow of migrants into the West. But investors have a choice. Their ardour will hinge on how much reform latitude President Tayyip Erdogan gives his new government.

Cox: Drought, not just of ideas, challenges Africa

By Rob Cox
November 12, 2015

The sub-Saharan region, once a bright spot for global growth, faces a worrying triple whammy. A lack of rainfall threatens agriculture and hydropower. Low commodity prices are taking a bite. Fold in sliding currencies, and inflation threatens stability and economic prospects.

Euro zone rediscovers sloppy fiscal policy

October 15, 2015

Deficits are creeping up in Spain, Italy and even growth star Ireland. Reasons include easy money and pre-election spending. As yet, the gaps aren’t dangerously big. What’s more worrying is poor spending decisions, slowing reforms and fiscal dissonance between member states.