Turkey has more friends in politics than markets

November 27, 2015

Europe’s recent rapprochement with Ankara is born of necessity. Less porous shared borders will help control the flow of migrants into the West. But investors have a choice. Their ardour will hinge on how much reform latitude President Tayyip Erdogan gives his new government.

Cox: Drought, not just of ideas, challenges Africa

November 12, 2015

The sub-Saharan region, once a bright spot for global growth, faces a worrying triple whammy. A lack of rainfall threatens agriculture and hydropower. Low commodity prices are taking a bite. Fold in sliding currencies, and inflation threatens stability and economic prospects.

Euro zone rediscovers sloppy fiscal policy

October 15, 2015

Deficits are creeping up in Spain, Italy and even growth star Ireland. Reasons include easy money and pre-election spending. As yet, the gaps aren’t dangerously big. What’s more worrying is poor spending decisions, slowing reforms and fiscal dissonance between member states.

Edward Hadas: Migration unpicks globalisation myth

By Edward Hadas
September 23, 2015

Some economists see the unexpected inflow into Europe as an easy win, adding to GDP and countering ageing. But those changes hardly matter. More important is that migration challenges the idea of a global economy. Political borders still set the economic agenda.

Luxury faces tough quest for next big market

August 27, 2015

China’s slowdown and weaker currency have hit share prices of bauble-peddlers LVMH and Swatch. The hunt is on for luxury’s next hotspot. India and Brazil show promise, but a mix of scale, rising incomes and inequality is elusive. Better opportunities may be closer to home.

China GDP surprise leaves central bank on the hook

July 15, 2015

Quarterly growth hit a surprisingly strong 7 pct and the bean-counters say expansion is “ready to pick up.” That’s too hopeful given stubborn disinflation and other signs of wariness among companies and consumers. Stock markets have rebounded, but interest rates must still fall.

Missing motorbikes point to Indonesian demand hole

June 19, 2015

A 36 percent slide in motorcycle sales in May shows just how fast falling commodity prices are eroding purchasing power. More worrying, however, is President Joko Widodo’s failure to offset the shortfall by boosting investment. A weakening currency is compounding the challenge.

Edward Hadas: Bring on kitchen economics

By Edward Hadas
June 17, 2015

A distinguished professor accuses his academic opponents of “mathiness”. It is wrong to use fancy formulas to justify intellectual prejudice. The discipline is poisoned by models created with mathematical abstractions. Equations muddy almost all economic debates.

Japan’s GDP lift is bounty from currency war

June 8, 2015

Output grew 3.9 percent in the first quarter, much faster than the 2.4 percent rate previously estimated. Investments made all the difference. Japanese exporters are ramping up capacity as they use the weak yen to fight for market share. Higher wages may be the next hopeful sign.

India GDP growth is one-third statistical illusion

June 5, 2015

Official data have become utterly unreliable. A Breakingviews analysis of corporate and consumer behaviour suggests growth is now closer to 5 percent than the 7.5 percent claimed by the authorities. Investors are quite right to be upset by half-hearted monetary easing.