Gold’s prospects are dull

January 25, 2016

The precious metal isn’t behaving like a safe haven should. The dollar’s rise is weighing on its price, Asian demand is dented, investors don’t need inflation hedges, and past price gyrations have tarnished its defensive allure. Grimmer news is needed to restore gold’s lustre.

Gold’s rally won’t outlast tectonic rate shift

December 11, 2014

The yellow metal is up as tumbling oil prices and a rising dollar destabilise many financial markets. Euro zone fears and Russian gold buying have also helped. But U.S. rate rises will create major shifts in the financial world. Gold is set for a bad 2015.

Gold bulls have precious little to cling to

November 6, 2014

The asset was first to swoon when investors awoke to the end of U.S. money-printing. Coin sales, a recovering Indian rupee and declining supply offer some hope. But even after a near-40 pct fall, the price hasn’t adjusted to the end of speculative fervour. Sub-$1,000/oz looms.

Gold’s geopolitical ledge won’t hold up

September 1, 2014

International tension has helped stabilise the gold price after a 2013 plunge. But the fundamentals are bad. ETF redemptions persist while bar and coin investment has dropped heavily. Jewellery demand remains soft. Consumers want cheaper gold. They are likely to get it next year.

Hoarding gold makes sense only for the hopeless

July 19, 2011

Compared to U.S. equities, gold is expensive. You have to go back to the stagflation of the 1970s -- or the depression of the 1930s -- to find a time when the yellow metal was more valuable. Today's worries could push it higher. But only the gloomiest can think gold will maintain its glittering trajectory.

Is Hugo Chavez ahead of the investment curve?

August 17, 2011

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez plans to move billions of dollars of cash reserves from developed to developing countries, according to media reports.

Gold miners no longer leveraged play on the metal

August 31, 2011

The yellow metal's price is up more than a quarter since December 31, but mining shares are roughly flat. Moreover, mining investors tend to discount spikes in the price of gold as merely temporary, offering little uplift to the miners' value.

Stock up on gold, tinned food and shotgun shells

December 30, 2011

OK, there’s no need to be too melodramatic. But hard times bolster the case for hard assets. When protesters fill the streets and the only cure for debt crises is printing money, it’s tempting to head for the hills. Assets offering true security fit in a suitcase.

Gold’s bull run is tired but maybe not over

February 23, 2012

The yellow metal’s price is up recently, but remains 8 percent below the September peak. A decade-long bull run is looking weary – ultra-high prices are depressing jewellery demand. But investment demand will stay strong as long as finance looks abnormal. Gold could go higher.

Safe haven tremors signal big investment shift

March 20, 2012

The first cracks are appearing in the high edifice of safe haven bonds. Sovereign yields are rising, gold weakening and the dollar advancing after a decade of weakness. Global investors should assume that we are on the cusp of change.