China criticism makes even Li Ka-shing defensive

September 30, 2015

The Hong Kong tycoon has rejected accusations that he is turning his back on the mainland. Yet the fact he felt the need to issue a defence shows the hostile terrain now facing business leaders in China. Shrill allegations of treachery will only make them less willing to invest.

Edward Hadas: Migration unpicks globalisation myth

By Edward Hadas
September 23, 2015

Some economists see the unexpected inflow into Europe as an easy win, adding to GDP and countering ageing. But those changes hardly matter. More important is that migration challenges the idea of a global economy. Political borders still set the economic agenda.

Hugo Dixon: It’s all up to Tsipras now

By Hugo Dixon
September 21, 2015

The leftist politician’s electoral triumph means domestic forces can’t impede him in implementing Greece’s 86 billion euro bailout deal. The big question is whether Alexis Tsipras has the will and the competence to do so. If not, his victory could soon turn to disaster.

Hugo Dixon: Greek election may reopen can of worms

By Hugo Dixon
August 31, 2015

Given that no party is likely to emerge from next month’s vote with a majority, it may be hard to form a strong government that can implement the country’s new bailout deal. There’s even a risk that there will be yet more elections. That could tip Greece back into crisis.

Asian capital controls are a real risk once again

August 21, 2015

Malaysia’s prime minister has ruled out a repeat of the country’s 1998 hot money curbs. But slumping Asian currencies suggest it’s too soon to be complacent. Raising interest rates could mean deep recessions. Some politicians might decide to prevent capital from leaving instead.

Hugo Dixon: Greece may not need debt haircut

By Hugo Dixon
August 17, 2015

No single measure, such as debt to GDP, adequately captures how unsustainable Athens’ balance sheet is. Most other yardsticks show Greece needs debt relief. But cutting the face value of its borrowings is probably not required.

Timing looks right for RBS state selldown

August 3, 2015

Cutting its 79 pct stake in the lender would leave the UK with a paper loss, yet focusing on the exact in-price is unhelpful. Better to sell than hold on for a recovery in price that may never come. Besides, the good vibes that come from less state ownership should limit losses.

Hugo Dixon: Syriza split best outcome for Greece

By Hugo Dixon
July 11, 2015

PM Alexis Tsipras secured overwhelming parliamentary backing for his U-turn on austerity and reform, but his party has splintered. A new government, which is more serious about implementing whatever bailout programme is negotiated with creditors, will now probably be formed.

Hugo Dixon: Greece needs a second election

By Hugo Dixon
May 26, 2015

Most scenarios facing the country are bleak, but there is one outcome that is not too bad. This will require the prime minister not only to eat his words, but also to call a new election to get a fresh mandate. The timing is tough, but just doable.

Cameron has work cut out to sustain relief rally

May 8, 2015

UK stocks and bonds, and the pound, have jumped on the Conservatives’ surprise election success. That’s to be expected given fears of a messy outcome. But the result leaves open questions on EU membership and Scotland. Such uncertainties could hold back investment and growth.