Turkey has more friends in politics than markets

November 27, 2015

Europe’s recent rapprochement with Ankara is born of necessity. Less porous shared borders will help control the flow of migrants into the West. But investors have a choice. Their ardour will hinge on how much reform latitude President Tayyip Erdogan gives his new government.

Britain joins sovereign wealth party too late

November 26, 2015

Creating a 1 billion pound sovereign wealth fund to encourage shale gas drilling in the UK could fail on two fronts. It won’t sway opponents of fracking in the UK countryside, and a financial windfall is unlikely given a global gas glut and unattractive shale economics.

France can afford budget-busting security spend

November 17, 2015

Prime Minister Manuel Valls says the deficit is bound to miss EU targets as security spending rises after the Paris attacks. Brussels is unlikely to kick up a fuss over this exceptional overspending. Nor will investors, who are used to serial French fiscal slippage.

Dixon: Syrian peace process offers hope post-Paris

By Hugo Dixon
November 16, 2015

After the attacks, outside powers called for a ceasefire followed by a political transition. A big obstacle is that Russia and America don’t agree on what should happen to Assad. But it’s the best chance to end the war, crush Islamic State and solve the refugee crisis.

Osborne’s new deficit: his own credibility

October 27, 2015

The UK chancellor’s cut to tax credits has been thrown back by the upper house. The claim that cuts were offset by higher minimum wages always looked hollow. The hit to Osborne’s deficit reduction plan looks bearable. At worst, it dents his hopes of being the next prime minister.

Poland’s tilt to nationalism is bad for investment

October 26, 2015

The country’s eurosceptic Law and Justice party has claimed victory in the national election. A likely absolute majority would embolden it to take a more statist approach, including a new balance-sheet levy on banks. Poland’s long-running free-market success is now at risk.

Hadas: Ex-Im deniers miss the real world

By Edward Hadas
October 19, 2015

Fierce attacks on the U.S. government’s trade finance bank are based on a false model of how economies work. Markets matter, but so do competent and powerful states. Promoting commerce is part of their job. The U.S. does it pretty well, with Ex-Im Bank just part of the package.

China criticism makes even Li Ka-shing defensive

September 30, 2015

The Hong Kong tycoon has rejected accusations that he is turning his back on the mainland. Yet the fact he felt the need to issue a defence shows the hostile terrain now facing business leaders in China. Shrill allegations of treachery will only make them less willing to invest.

Edward Hadas: Migration unpicks globalisation myth

By Edward Hadas
September 23, 2015

Some economists see the unexpected inflow into Europe as an easy win, adding to GDP and countering ageing. But those changes hardly matter. More important is that migration challenges the idea of a global economy. Political borders still set the economic agenda.

Hugo Dixon: It’s all up to Tsipras now

By Hugo Dixon
September 21, 2015

The leftist politician’s electoral triumph means domestic forces can’t impede him in implementing Greece’s 86 billion euro bailout deal. The big question is whether Alexis Tsipras has the will and the competence to do so. If not, his victory could soon turn to disaster.