Greek banks get marginally more investable

November 2, 2015

ECB stress tests revealed a 14 bln euro capital hole. The tests were doubly tough: the pass mark was high, and the state will not prevent shareholder dilution. Yet banks are stuck with bad loans and the economic outlook is unclear. Greek bank equity is still a bet for the brave.

Dixon: Tsipras’ biggest stress tests yet to come

By Hugo Dixon
November 2, 2015

A central bank verdict that the top Greek lenders must raise only 14.4 billion euros is welcome news for the prime minister. But he has to implement more tough measures before he can secure debt relief from his euro zone creditors. Until then, he faces political risks.

Piraeus debt swap makes most sense for Greek bulls

October 16, 2015

The Greek bank is offering senior creditors a debt-for-equity swap. Acceptance means bondholders get a bigger upside if Greece recovers, and it could help banks’ current capital raising. But those worried the state is not out of the woods should hang on to their bonds.

Hugo Dixon: Greek bank recap is race against time

By Hugo Dixon
October 5, 2015

Capital must be injected by year-end to avoid a disastrous bail-in of uninsured depositors. To meet the deadline, Europe’s central bank must finish its stress test and decide how much capital is required. The banks then need time to see if private investors will take part.

Hugo Dixon: It’s all up to Tsipras now

By Hugo Dixon
September 21, 2015

The leftist politician’s electoral triumph means domestic forces can’t impede him in implementing Greece’s 86 billion euro bailout deal. The big question is whether Alexis Tsipras has the will and the competence to do so. If not, his victory could soon turn to disaster.

Hugo Dixon: Greek election may reopen can of worms

By Hugo Dixon
August 31, 2015

Given that no party is likely to emerge from next month’s vote with a majority, it may be hard to form a strong government that can implement the country’s new bailout deal. There’s even a risk that there will be yet more elections. That could tip Greece back into crisis.

Hugo Dixon: Greece may not need debt haircut

By Hugo Dixon
August 17, 2015

No single measure, such as debt to GDP, adequately captures how unsustainable Athens’ balance sheet is. Most other yardsticks show Greece needs debt relief. But cutting the face value of its borrowings is probably not required.

Greece deal leaves euro intact but fragile

August 11, 2015

Athens may get its bailout after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gave in to reform demands. Quitting the euro is much less likely. It suggests currency union can bear the near-exit of a peripheral state. Economic rifts between core members, though, remain the big future risk.

Hugo Dixon: How to fix Greece’s banks

By Hugo Dixon
August 10, 2015

The banks are the weakest point in the country’s economic system. They need to be repaired in order to lift capital controls, restore depositor confidence and finance a future recovery. There are some good ways of doing this, even if the best options aren’t making much headway.

Hugo Dixon: Euro zone doesn’t need political union

By Hugo Dixon
August 3, 2015

The Greek crisis has triggered renewed calls for a euro zone government, budget and parliament. But such a political union isn’t needed, desirable or achievable. Instead, the euro zone needs more market-based solutions to thrive.