Saudi reshuffle points to era of oil volatility

May 9, 2016

Ali al-Naimi, just fired as oil minister, was the architect of a bitter price war but also had successes reaching consensus with OPEC. His successor Khalid al-Falih may lack the same influence. It suggests a more centralised Saudi establishment, but more discord in oil markets.

Chancellor: Oil prices don’t need a Doha to rise

April 22, 2016

An agreement among feuding OPEC members to cut production may still be elusive. But the Saudis and other oil-producing nations are in no position to ramp up. As U.S. oil output is set to fall sharply this year, the price of energy is likely to keep heading upwards.

Give OPEC more power and let Iran and Saudi bicker

April 19, 2016

A bitter struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has hit the credibility of the group, after their rift stymied a freeze to oil output. The dispute implies the cartel needs reform and more power to offset the political motives of its members. The outcome: a more stable oil market.

OPEC freeze failure could hasten oil’s recovery

April 18, 2016

Producers failed to agree a deal to freeze supply at a meeting in Doha. The failure was largely due to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow Iran to be exempted from an agreement. Prices will drop initially, but if OPEC disintegrates the stalemate could hasten crude’s recovery.

Iran more red herring than black swan for oil

March 29, 2016

Despite lifted sanctions and a more moderate government, Tehran lacks the investment to deliver a boost to supply. Next month’s unofficial OPEC meeting may produce an output freeze. With Russia also less liable to increase its flows, pressure on prices looks more up than down.

The Exchange podcast: Lord Browne of L1 Energy

By Rob Cox
March 24, 2016

The former BP chief swings by Times Square to discuss his new book on how companies can radically engage with the wider world and become more inclusive to the benefit of owners. He also talks about the potential for M&A in the energy business, the oil market and Brexit.

Saudi-Russia oil deal is full of holes

February 16, 2016

The crude producers have agreed to freeze production at January levels. But both Russia and the OPEC kingpin are already pumping nearly flat out. And Iran, which wants to raise output after years of sanctions, may not agree. At best, it may lead to a more ambitious deal later.

Oil flirting with the $20s gives OPEC cause to cut

January 12, 2016

That bleak outlook for oil is gaining traction among analysts. Such bearish predictions may prove correct unless bickering OPEC puts aside its differences and agrees to deep cuts. But for that to happen, Russia and other producers outside the cartel will have to play ball.

OPEC indecision could engulf big oil majors

December 4, 2015

Instead of cutting output, the oil cartel has cleared the way for its members to keep flooding the market with more crude. For investors in oil companies this means a year of deeper spending cuts. Lower earnings are almost guaranteed to follow.

Saudi has chance to teach hedge funds a lesson

December 3, 2015

The largest OPEC producer has long complained that the biggest risk to a stable oil market is hedge funds who bet on falling prices. A deal to cut production in Vienna on Dec. 4, while a drop in the bucket for Saudi, could push up oil prices and leave speculators with big losses.