Breakingviews

Saudi’s three great pillars are showing cracks

May 24, 2016

Oil, Islam and the ruling family of Al Saud bind the kingdom together. But low commodity prices and disruptive economic reforms risk opening up divisions within the ruling class. That in turn could unpick the all-important 80-year pact between religious leaders and the state.

Saudi reshuffle points to era of oil volatility

May 9, 2016

Ali al-Naimi, just fired as oil minister, was the architect of a bitter price war but also had successes reaching consensus with OPEC. His successor Khalid al-Falih may lack the same influence. It suggests a more centralised Saudi establishment, but more discord in oil markets.

Saudi Arabia’s post-oil reform vision looks blurry

April 25, 2016

Riyadh’s new plan to reform the economy, Vision 2030, entails creating a giant SWF and listing a stake in state oil firm Aramco. It will raise cash, but won’t solve the kingdom’s crude problem. To truly advance as an economy, Saudi needs greater economic and social openness.

Chancellor: Oil prices don’t need a Doha to rise

April 22, 2016

An agreement among feuding OPEC members to cut production may still be elusive. But the Saudis and other oil-producing nations are in no position to ramp up. As U.S. oil output is set to fall sharply this year, the price of energy is likely to keep heading upwards.

Saudi’s sweet debt deal could rebound on banks

April 21, 2016

The kingdom is close to its first international debt deal in 25 years to plug a hole in its finances caused by weak oil prices. Vast oil reserves make Saudi debt enticing, but the price slump is changing the game in several ways. And Middle East states have defaulted before.

Saudi U.S. selloff threat not to be trifled with

April 20, 2016

The kingdom has told lawmakers it would dump some $750 bln of assets should Congress pass a bill allowing 9/11 victims to sue. These funds are its last line of defense to lower oil prices. That the alternative - having assets frozen - is an even worse outcome is scarier still.

Give OPEC more power and let Iran and Saudi bicker

April 19, 2016

A bitter struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has hit the credibility of the group, after their rift stymied a freeze to oil output. The dispute implies the cartel needs reform and more power to offset the political motives of its members. The outcome: a more stable oil market.

OPEC freeze failure could hasten oil’s recovery

April 18, 2016

Producers failed to agree a deal to freeze supply at a meeting in Doha. The failure was largely due to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow Iran to be exempted from an agreement. Prices will drop initially, but if OPEC disintegrates the stalemate could hasten crude’s recovery.

The Exchange podcast: Lord Browne of L1 Energy

By Rob Cox
March 24, 2016

The former BP chief swings by Times Square to discuss his new book on how companies can radically engage with the wider world and become more inclusive to the benefit of owners. He also talks about the potential for M&A in the energy business, the oil market and Brexit.

Saudi-Russia oil deal is full of holes

February 16, 2016

The crude producers have agreed to freeze production at January levels. But both Russia and the OPEC kingpin are already pumping nearly flat out. And Iran, which wants to raise output after years of sanctions, may not agree. At best, it may lead to a more ambitious deal later.