Breakingviews

Saudi’s sweet debt deal could rebound on banks

April 21, 2016

The kingdom is close to its first international debt deal in 25 years to plug a hole in its finances caused by weak oil prices. Vast oil reserves make Saudi debt enticing, but the price slump is changing the game in several ways. And Middle East states have defaulted before.

Merkel down not out after Super Sunday defeat

March 14, 2016

Right-wing populists won large gains in three German state elections. Support for Angela Merkel’s coalition is waning. Yet results also show credible and determined mainstream leaders can still woo voters. This may help the chancellor to keep inner-party critics at bay.

Dixon: Turkey’s economy threatened on many fronts

December 7, 2015

A row with Russia, a resurgence of violence within its borders and the prospect of the Fed raising rates have coincided with President Erdogan’s increasing politicisation of the economy and bad governance. This could prove a toxic cocktail given the private sector’s high debt.

Europe’s least bad option: ditch Schengen

December 4, 2015

The 26-country free border zone is struggling to cope with refugees and security risks. Abolishing Schengen would be expensive and wouldn’t solve migration problems. Yet it might dampen the populism in continental Europe and the UK that threatens Europe’s economic integration.

Dixon: EU-Turkey deal is historic, if it sticks

November 30, 2015

The EU has dangled the prospect that Turkey can join the bloc, offered to liberalise visas and promised the government a chunk of cash in return for Ankara agreeing to stem the flow of migrants to Europe. The snag is that not all of the pact looks deliverable.

German open-door isolationism is unsustainable

November 26, 2015

Angela Merkel has ignored domestic calls to shut out refugees. But she will find it harder to brush off French calls for the same. Alienating a key ally would undermine the union Merkel wants to save, and threaten economic integration.

Dixon: Syrian peace process offers hope post-Paris

November 16, 2015

After the attacks, outside powers called for a ceasefire followed by a political transition. A big obstacle is that Russia and America don’t agree on what should happen to Assad. But it’s the best chance to end the war, crush Islamic State and solve the refugee crisis.

Edward Hadas: Migration unpicks globalisation myth

September 23, 2015

Some economists see the unexpected inflow into Europe as an easy win, adding to GDP and countering ageing. But those changes hardly matter. More important is that migration challenges the idea of a global economy. Political borders still set the economic agenda.

Breakdown: Migrant crisis reshapes Europe politics

September 8, 2015

The number of people flooding into the continent is only a small part of the story. More worrying: old political anxieties are being rekindled. While migration won’t immediately affect economic issues like Greece’s bailout or the euro, it could jeopardise European cohesion.

Migration crisis echoes age-old test of finance

September 1, 2015

The flow of desperate people to Europe has a financial-world parallel. For companies, high returns attract new entrants who threaten incumbents’ comfortable state. The options for EU leaders are similar too: shut out competition, or find new, better ways to create profit.