Grenada offers debt restructuring model for Greece

April 9, 2015

The Caribbean island is close to agreeing a deal with creditors after years of wrangling. The deal structure, including warrants and phased debt relief, is equitable, and provides incentives for reform. It looks like a decent model for Ukraine—or even Greece.

Others will join hryvnia and rouble in FX sin bin

By Edward Hadas
February 6, 2015

Ukraine’s currency plunged 30 pct in a day. Russia’s is down by half since July. Both are stuck in vicious circles, where local inflation and devaluation reinforce each other. In a disinflationary world where capital is flighty, others could easily fall into the same spiral.

Putin, Piketty and Draghi hit Davos in spirit only

January 23, 2015

Political and financial leaders attending the World Economic Forum’s 45th annual meeting are buzzing about rampant inequality, the ECB’s quantitative easing and Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. All that’s missing from the Alpine retreat are the three provocateurs of the debates.

Ukraine crisis forced into suspended animation for 2015

By Pierre Briancon
December 29, 2014

Markets worried about Europe’s economy in 2014. They will worry about Europe’s security in 2015. EU sanctions over Ukraine will weigh heavily on Russia’s economy. A lot depends on Vladimir Putin, but Europeans need to define what they want sanctions to achieve.

Only Putin can stop rouble’s fall

By Pierre Briancon
November 7, 2014

Russia’s currency is sinking. The central bank is blameless. Neither intervention nor higher rates can support the rouble. The economy is deteriorating and reform hopes are fading as Moscow retreats into isolation. The situation will persist until the president changes policy.

Malaysia Airlines plight points to riskier world

July 18, 2014

Fatal air passenger accidents almost never happen. Malaysia Airlines has been struck by tragedy twice in four months. The aviation industry has its own challenges. Yet even more robust businesses need to consider political risk carefully.

Gazprom/Ukraine dispute is proxy for Putin’s whims

By Pierre Briancon
June 16, 2014

The Russian energy group will deliver only pre-paid gas to Ukraine, after talks on $4 bln of overdue bills collapsed. Combine that with renewed hostilities by Russian separatists in the east of the country, and markets were premature in believing that the Ukraine crisis has ended.

Russia puts gas-hungry China in a bear hug

May 21, 2014

A planned pipeline gives Russia a new market outside the increasingly frosty EU. For oil major PetroChina this should staunch losses from low regulated prices at home. China gets cheap supply, but at a cost: the optics of the deal shred Beijing’s claims of political neutrality.

Rob Cox: Solving America’s homegrown Putin dilemma

May 6, 2014

Critics say that Obama’s targeted economic sanctions against some Russian oligarchs smack of appeasement. Yet silence prevails when it comes to a Nevada tax scofflaw surrounded by vigilantes. If the U.S. can’t uphold the rule of law at home, it can have no credibility abroad.

Sanctions on Russia will cost less than inaction

By Pierre Briancon
April 17, 2014

European leaders blame Russia for the takeover of Ukrainian cities by armed separatists. Yet they’re refraining from further sanctions because it’s not a full-blown invasion. The wavering and waiting will only increase the final price to be paid for Vladimir Putin’s actions.