China will find schmoozing IMF was the easy bit

November 30, 2015

The yuan has made it into the global lender’s basket of reserve currencies, despite China’s patchy reform record and clumsy market interventions. For Beijing politicians, getting into the IMF’s club is itself a reward. Persuading investors to want more yuan will be tougher.

Yuan’s new global status matters most inside China

November 16, 2015

The renminbi is on the verge of joining the SDR, the International Monetary Fund’s reserve currency club. The symbolic step won’t send foreign investors rushing into yuan assets. But the move endorses China’s recent financial reforms, and makes them harder to reverse.

China’s campaign to stabilise yuan comes at a cost

October 9, 2015

After the shock of August’s mini-devaluation, some calm has returned to the currency. Yet restoring stability required hefty central bank intervention and a crackdown on capital outflows. China is still a long way from letting its exchange rate be set by market forces.

G20’s promise to avoid currency wars is feeble

September 7, 2015

Finance ministers and central bankers from large countries did not ask the United States to delay raising interest rates. They have no other plan to stop capital fleeing China and other emerging economies. That makes their pledge to resist “competitive devaluations” ring hollow.

Impossible trinity gives China a difficult choice

August 26, 2015

Not even the People’s Republic can go on cutting interest rates, keep the yuan stable, and allow capital to flow freely. It must choose two out of three. Huge foreign exchange reserves give Beijing some room to muddle through, but not enough to reverse self-fulfilling outflows.

Edward Chancellor: The cost of China’s devaluation

By Edward Chancellor
August 17, 2015

Forget about currency wars and global deflation. The true impact of the yuan’s sudden decline will be felt by China’s dysfunctional credit system, where domestic borrowers and foreign lenders believed the currency could only appreciate.

China’s currency could fall another 5 percent

August 13, 2015

The central bank says it’s not out to weaken the yuan. But to recoup China’s competitiveness without slipping into deflation, a slide to at least 6.75 to the dollar would be welcome. That could help the mainland, but would give the rest of the world a new headache.

China’s yuan devaluation push looks far from done

August 12, 2015

The central bank weakened the official exchange rate by another 1.6 pct against the U.S. dollar. It’s a clear sign the new “market-oriented” yuan is heading down. Until China uses its foreign exchange hoard to prop up the currency, investors will assume there’s further to go.

Yuan devaluation raises currency war anxiety

August 11, 2015

China’s central bank weakened its currency by almost 2 pct against the U.S. dollar in what it called a “one-time correction.” A deflating mainland economy may justify further depreciation. That would put pressure on other countries, raising the risk of tit-for-tat moves.

China fatigued by debt as flexible yuan turns 10

July 21, 2015

The world’s economic growth engine abandoned the dollar peg a decade ago. Beijing may have given up on a cheap yuan, but its pro-market resolve is in doubt. And while the People’s Republic’s debt-creating trade surplus has shrunk, domestic leverage is rising at a worrying pace.