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Changing China

Giant on the move

June 30th, 2009

Why the BRICS like Africa

Posted by: Jeremy Gaunt

There is little doubt that the BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- have become big players in Africa. According to Standard Bank of South Africa, BRIC trade with the continent has snowballed from just $16 billion in 2000 to $157 billion last year. That is a 33 percent compounded annual growth rate.

What is behind this? At one level, the BRICs, as they grow, are clearly recognising commercial and strategic opportunities in Africa. But Standard Bank reckons other, more individual, drivers are also at play.

In a new report, the bank looks at what each of the individual BRIC countries is trying to do. To whit:

-- Brazil's immediate intererest in Africa is securing access to natural resources, particularly oil. But is also motivated by a desire to create a new "Southern Axis" with itself at the forefront.

-- Russia is also interested in Africa's natural resources. But it faces a problem because of the sullied reputation of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. So Moscow has also embarked on a rebranding programme within the continent by ramping up its aid programmes.

-- India is attracted to Africa in part because of long historic ties. Commercial engagement, however, is also motivated by a need to guarantee the natural resources it needs for its own growth. Furthermore Africa is seen politically as a key ally in the pursuit of a competitive advantage over its Asian competitor China.

-- For China, Africa provides a long-term partner in its ongoing bid to gain global economic ascendancy, providing it with the resources, markets, geopolitical support, and, eventually, food and social security in the form of a growing and engaging diaspora.

A full copy of Standard Bank's report, which was written by Simon Freemantle and Jeremy Stevens, can be found here.

(Photo: Jeremy Gaunt)

June 17th, 2009

India, China leaders move to ease new strains in ties

Posted by: Sanjeev Miglani

While Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's meeting with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari in Russia captured all the attention,  Singh's talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao may turn out to be just as important in easing off renewed pressure on the complex relationship between the world's rising powers.

India said this month it will bolster its defences on the unsettled China border, deploying up to 50,000 troops and its most latest Su-30 fighter aircraft at a base in the northeast.

While upgrading the defences has been a long-running objective, the timing seemed to suggest New Delhi's renewed fears of "strategic encirclement" by China by deepening ties with all of its neighbours, not just Pakistan but also Sri Lanka and Nepal.

The chief of the Indian air force, reflecting the anxieties in the security establishment, said China was a far bigger threat than Pakistan because so little was known about Beijing's combat capabilities.

Predictably enough, the Indian military moves and statements drew a strong response from China's official media warning that New Delhi's tough new posture was dangerous if it thought it would compel China to cave in. Beijing was in a different league, both in terms of national power, economic scale and global influence, the media said.

On Monday, Hu and Singh met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRIC meeting that followed in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg. Details from the meeting were sketchy, but the Press Trust of India said the two leaders supported an early meeting of a joint economic group to push trade ties. 

They also touched on the border dispute at the heart of the more than four decades of distrust, noting that top negotiators were due to meet in August. The People's Daily said Hu stressed on expanding economic cooperation and investment flows and aims to take bilateral trade to $60 billion in 2010. It stood at $51.8 billion in 2008, the paper said.

India's decision to attend the SCO, where it has observer status, was also a step forward. Since its inception the forum has been seen in India as China-centric with the main strategic objective of limiting U.S. dominance on China's periphery and in that way prevent the hemming-in of both China and Russia.

By attending the summit is New Dehi signalling its intention to engage China on a broad front and not shy away?

And did Beijing shift ground a bit by acceding to the declaration by the BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China - calling for U.N. reform and saying that the grouping understood and supported India and Brazil's aspirations to play a greater role in the United Nations.

Both Brazil and India are candidates for permanent members of the Security Council and Beijing has long been cold to the idea of at least its southern neighbour getting a place on the high table. It wasn't a ringing endorsement at Yekaterinburg but perhaps the first shuffling of chairs?

[Manmohan Singh and Hu Jintao at the SCO summit and a Chinese soldier at the border]

March 16th, 2009

Victory for emerging BRICs?

Posted by: Carolyn Cohn

Emerging market ministers, particularly those from the BRIC economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- are painting this weekend's G20 meeting as a victory in dragging them out of the shadows of global policy-making.

The finance ministers' statement included the promise of more money for the International Monetary Fund and regional development banks, on whom struggling emerging economies rely for support.

It accelerated a review of IMF quotas by two years to 2011, which should give emerging economies more say in the running of the multilateral lender. It also suggested that the headship of IFIs -- international financial institutions -- would no longer be guaranteed to Americans or Europeans. 

BRIC countries even issued their own communique, ahead of the final statement. "There is a conclusion that has been reached in recent years, which is that the resolution to today's global problems is only possible with the participation of emerging countries," Brazil's central bank governor Henrique Meirelles told MacroScope.

 "There is a natural evolution of the decision-making process, which many important countries agree on, that decisions move from the G7 to the G20."

But were there actually any major concessions?  Tim Ash,  head of emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa research at RBS thinks not.

"Clearly they would like things to change, but I'm not sure that much has actually changed," he says.

August 19th, 2008

Argentina see off sorry Brazil

Posted by: Keith Weir

Messi and RonaldinhoThe cheers before kickoff in the Beijing Workers’ Stadium were for five-times world champions Brazil and Ronaldinho. At the final whistle, the Chinese crowd rose to acclaim Argentina after a 3-0 win against nine-man Brazil sent them through to the Olympic final.

China may be a relatively untapped soccer market, but the 50,000 plus crowd knew that the best team had won on the night.

The Olympic tournament, with its uneasy format of under-23s and a smattering of over-age players, has plenty of critics, but Brazil v Argentina is a big match in any competition.

So much so that even the ultra-efficient Beijing organisers struggled to shoehorn the hundreds of accredited press and associated media folk into the seating reserved for them. The post-match press conference was an all-ticket affair, with Portuguese and Spanish-speaking reporters given priority.

Argentina, inspired by captain Juan Roman Riquelme and the darting Lionel Messi, made their superiority count after halftime, running in their three goals in the space of less than 20 minutes.

All the marginal decisions went their way - Brazil appealed in vain for offside when Sergio Aguero scored his second to put Argentina 2-0 ahead. Shortly after Brazil’s Pato had the ball in the net, but this time the goal was ruled out for offside and there was no way back.

So plenty to think about for national coach Dunga, who has given the impression during this tournament of wishing he were elsewhere. Plenty too to ponder for Ronaldinho, who looked out of sorts as he prepares for life with AC Milan after a disappointing  final season with Barcelona.

For defending champions Argentina, it’s a showdown at noon on Saturday with Nigeria in the Bird’s Nest Stadium. That’s a repeat of the 1996 final, a cracking match won 3-2 by Nigeria thanks to two late goals.

Let’s hope the two teams can defy the heat and serve up another classic for the maligned Olympic soccer tournament.

PHOTO: Argentina’s Lionel Messi (L) speaks with Brazil’s Ronaldinho after Argentina won their semi-final soccer match in Worker’s Stadium during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, August 19, 2008. REUTERS/Daniel Aguilar

August 18th, 2008

South American rivalry to spice up the Games

Posted by: Brian Homewood

Argentina celebrateOnly one thing would give Argentina more pleasure than winning their second Olympic gold and that would be to stop Brazil from winning their first in the process.

The Olympic soccer tournament does not cut much ice in Europe but it is taken much more seriously in South America. Brazil have won the World Cup five times, the Copa America eight and the Confederations Cup twice and their failure to add an Olympic gold to their collection rankles.

It would be especially painful if their latest attempt to win the competition is ended by their greatest rivals.

So, when the two sides meet in the Beijing Workers Stadium in Tuesday’s semi-final, it will not be quite the real thing but almost — possibly around 70 percent.

The Olympic tournament features under-23 teams but both teams have taken advantage of a rule which allows up to three overage players per team. Brazil have selected Ronaldinho as one of their quota while mercurial playmaker Juan Roman Riquelme is part of Argentina’s.

Argentina also have Lionel Messi, who falls within the age limit. Several other players make regular appearances at senior level including Fernando Gago, Javier Mascherano, Sergio Aguero and Pablo Zabaleta.

On the Brazilian side, Anderson and Diego make frequent appearances at senior level while Marcelo, Rafinha, Hernanes and Breno appear set to break into the squad.

At senior level, Brazil have enjoyed some recent dominance. They won three matches in a row by three-goal margins — at the Confederations Cup final in 2005, a friendly in 2006 and the Copa America final in 2007 — before the run was ended with a 0-0 draw in a World Cup qualifier in June.

Argentina are just about the only team with the courage to go out and attack Brazil, but in doing so they have often played into Brazil’s hands.

A more cautious approach might be advisable this time.

PHOTO: Argentina’s Lionel Messi (C, top) celebrates with team mates Angel Di Maria (11), Sergio Aguero and Juan Roman Riquelme (L) after scoring his team’s first goal against the Netherlands in their Beijing 2008 Olympic Games men’s quarter-final soccer match at the Shanghai Stadium August 16, 2008. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci

August 17th, 2008

Beijing podcast — day nine

Posted by: Kevin Fylan

The podcast team reflect on insane Usain, Phelps fatigue and the most dangerous man at the Beijing Olympics.

I’m joined by Julian Linden, Belinda Goldsmith, Brian Homewood, Erik Kirschbaum and Neil Maidment to look at the dafter side of the Beijing Games.

And if you were in any doubt as to the talents of Mr Linden, listen out for him playing the piano in the background.

Click below to play.

August 11th, 2008

A Ronaldinho revival? Don’t speak too soon

Posted by: Brian Homewood

Ronaldinho scoresRonaldinho’s two-goal performance against New Zealand in Sunday’s Olympic Games has already been hailed as some sort of revival after his miserable last season with Barcelona.

The former World Player of the Year showed flashes of his best form in the 5-0 win with plenty of cheeky flicks, shimmies and stepovers. And, of course, he grinned.

“This was a reward for everything which I have done and for all the people who believed in me and helped me to start playing again,” he told Brazilian media.

But the performance needs to be put into context.

The Olympic soccer tournament is an under-23 competition and Ronaldinho is competing as one of the three permitted overage players per team.

Brazil’s opponents qualified from a group in which Fiji were their strongest opponents. They have only three professionals in their 18-man squad. Most of the other players are university students who play football for fun.

Ronaldinho has just signed for AC Milan. He will play in arguably the world’s most unforgiving league and is going to have to fight hard just to get into the team every week.

There are some much tougher battles ahead and it remains to be seen whether he has the motivation to return to his best.

Any talk of a Ronaldinho revival is way too premature, isn’t it?

August 8th, 2008

Dunga far from happy despite Brazil win

Posted by: Brian Homewood

Ronaldinho shoots

If there was an Olympic gold medal for whingeing then Dunga, coach of the Brazilian soccer team, would be among the early contenders.

The 1994 World Cup winning captain, who as a player was an example of resilience and dedication to the cause, is not a happy camper.

First, he was complaining about the food — “When you try to talk to the chef to change the menu, he has to talk to his boss, who has to talk to his boss, who has to talk to his boss and by that time the Olympics are over” — and lack of training time in Shenyang, where Brazil have started their campaign to win a first gold in Olympic soccer.

After his team struggled to beat nine-man Belgium in their opening match on Thursday, he blamed  the pitch and his opponents for making life difficult (isn’t that what they’re supposed to do?).

“The ball bounces around all over the place and you need two or three touches to bring it under control,” he snarled. “The opposition just kept putting all their players behind the ball and used the high ball into the area. They’ve been together for four months and we got together 15 days ago.”

But the unhappy truth is that Brazil should have swept their opponent aside and might have done so if Dunga had been just a little more adventurous. A team boasting players such as Werder Bremen midfielder Diego, Premier League players Lucas and Anderson in midfield, AC Milan prodigy Alexandre Pato in attack, plus Ronaldinho, should not play in fits and starts as Brazil did on Thursday.

Unfortunately, Dunga did what he has done in recent matches with the senior side, which he also coaches, and went for the cautious approach.

He stuck three midfielders in front of his defence and left Pato to fight two or three Belgian defenders on his own. Ronaldinho was stuck out on the left flank with nobody to exchange passes with except left back Marcelo on his occasional forays upfield.

Despite winning the Copa America in his two years at the helm, Dunga does not look comfortable as Brazil’s national team coach. Will he still be around for the 2010 World Cup?

PHOTO: Ronaldinho takes a free kick during Brazil’s Group C soccer match against Belgium at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games in Shenyang August 7, 2008. REUTERS/Alvin Chan

August 6th, 2008

Messi likely to miss Olympics

Posted by: Kevin Fylan

News just out that the Court of Arbitration for Sport has ruled in favour of Barcelona and decided they will not have to release Argentine forward Lionel Messi for the Olympics.

Assuming Barcelona do not have a change of heart, it means one of the biggest-name athletes at the Games will not be taking part. Brazilians Diego and Rafinha, of Werder Bremen and Schalke 04, will now also presumably be going home.

As Brian Homewood writes, the presence of Messi has helped raise the profile of soccer at the Olympics enormously. His departure will be a big blow to Argentina, and to all those hoping hoping to catch a glimpse of the man.

FIFA president Sepp Blatter said recently that Barcelona and other clubs should let their players stay and compete in the Games even if CAS were to rule in their favour. Let’s see what Barcelona say. 

We’ll have more on this later.