Uncertainty and indecision threaten Bank America and global markets
For the past several years, my firm has been arguing that restructuring is the only way to solve the problems facing the largest US banks — the top four institutions that exercise a de facto cartel over the US housing market. After years of earning what seemed to be supra normal returns from the “gain on sale” world of US mortgage originations, the large service banks are now drowning in the same sea of risk that once made them seem so profitable.
As investors have slowly become aware of the concentration of housing risk that surrounds these large banks, they have increasingly shunned them. First with Bear Stearns, then Lehman Brothers, and then the housing GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, markets stopped facing these names in the interbank credit markets, then accelerated into a crisis which compelled government intervention.
Now the Obama Administration faces the same threat with Bank of America (“BAC”), an institution that is one of the largest lenders and also servicer of loans in the US. Millions of payroll deductions, property tax payments and remittances flow through BAC daily. But losses from acquisitions such as Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, as well as hundreds of other operating entities, threaten to bring the bank down. Yet herein is an opportunity for national salvation.
BAC is a too big to fail zombie created by the Obama Administration and the Fed to protect US financial markets, but is now so vast and unstable that it threatens the global economy. But more corrosive and dangerous than the torrents of red ink inside BAC is the steady erosion of public confidence. Uncertainty is the enemy now, both with respect to BAC and to its large bank peers.
The only way to end the uncertainty and also accelerate the economic recovery is to put BAC through a restructuring using the powers under the Dodd-Frank legislation. While a restructuring by the FDIC may seem to be a horrible prospect, in fact it offers the first real hope of definiteness in the housing crisis, the multi-trillion dollar millstone around our collective necks. Indeed, the BAC situation illustrates why the Founders of the US embedded bankruptcy in the Constitution, namely the need for finality.
In mechanical terms, here is how it works. Let’s start the narrative with a last, Hail Mary move by BAC CEO Brian Moynihan, who put the shell corporation that is the legal successor to the Countrywide business into bankruptcy after settlement efforts fail. This engraved message from Moynihan to BAC’s creditors, litigants and even Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner — “foxtrot oscar” — begins the real endgame.
Hopefully Secretary Geithner will know about the BAC filing before it occurs and will have begun the process under Dodd-Frank to give regulators and especially the FDIC the power to move immediately to protect BAC and its subsidiary banks. In our narrative, FDIC enters the bankruptcy litigation for Countrywide and asserts control of the entire BAC group. BAC becomes effectively a subsidiary of the FDIC, with the full capital and assets of the entire industry behind it.
Once the FDIC is in control of BAC, the process will then proceed like a typical bankruptcy, with the operating units continuing to do business in the normal course. For consumers and business customers, the situation at BAC will be mostly the same. But for investors and especially creditors, the situation will be far from normal.
In a Dodd-Frank resolution, the creditors of BAC will have an opportunity to file claims, much as with any failed bank. Unlike a bankruptcy, however, the FDIC will make all depositors of the subsidiary banks whole before considering claims of creditors of the parent, a significant difference investors ought to consider. Most important, however, will be the process of converting debt to equity in the restructured BAC, providing the resources to absorb losses, fund continuing operations and restructure.
The beauty of a restructuring is that it forces all parties with a claim on the failed company to speak now or forever hold their peace. It also requires the conversion of debt to equity, which increases capital dramatically and also lowers the operating expenses of the enterprise. A super-capitalized BAC with 2-3% asset returns, 30% tangible equity and gobs of cash flow will then be ready to sell assets, modify mortgages and do whatever it takes to restore the ability of the bank to support new leverage. That is why restructuring is the key to US economic revival.
Economists from Irving Fisher to Henry Kaufman have noted that without credit expansion, the US economy cannot grow. In fact, credit is contracting with public confidence in America’s banks. The solution to the financial crisis affecting BAC and the US economic malaise are the same, namely an orderly, immediate public process of restructuring for the top banks and housing agencies. Think of a BAC restructuring as a working model for the rest of the US and EU to emulate.
The good news is that a growing number of observers see what needs to be done, much to the delight of this lonely herald of woe. The bad news is that the Obama White House is clueless, but such is life in a democracy. We can only hope that some of the Americans I now hear talking about the need for restructuring will speak to President Obama and Secretary Geithner sooner rather than later. And if they need help, they know where to find me.