Christopher Whalen

Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11?

October 19, 2011

Bank of America has managed to step into the kimchee several times over the past couple of months, an achievement that only warms the hearts of crisis communications professionals. First came the abortive settlement of $10 billion or so in put-back claims by some large investors. The State of New York and anyone else paying attention intervened. Settlement is now mostly muerto in political terms, although the big investors are still paying the big lawyers to soldier on in hope of forcing a settlement on all parties.  Only in New York are such things possible.

Housing, debt ceilings & zombie banks

August 17, 2011

In a Washington Post report this week, the Obama Administration was said to have decided to adopt a proposal to continue a major government presence in financing mortgages.  The Treasury subsequently denied this report in a statement posted by Deputy Secretary Neal S. Wolin:

Uncertainty and indecision threaten Bank America and global markets

August 9, 2011

For the past several years, my firm has been arguing that restructuring is the only way to solve the problems facing the largest US banks — the top four institutions that exercise a de facto cartel over the US housing market. After years of earning what seemed to be supra normal returns from the “gain on sale” world of US mortgage originations, the large service banks are now drowning in the same sea of risk that once made them seem so profitable.

Did the FDIC really kill the repo market?

June 27, 2011

Back in April 2011, Jim Bianco penned a commentary, “Why The Federal Reserve May Have A Hard Time Raising Rates.” He argued that the increase in the FDIC insurance assessment rate for large banks adds to bank funding costs, and thus offsets the impact of Fed ease. Bianco and others infer a roughly 15bp tax or “wedge” on money market assets is created by the FDIC assessment rule.  By way of reference, the Fed’s target band for fed funds is 0 to 25bp but has been at low end of this range for months.

It’s a wonderful life 2011

January 3, 2011

About a year ago, Arianna Huffington called my friend and colleague Dennis Santiago and asked if my firm could provide a list of “good banks” for an effort she was planning. Along with Rob Johnson from the Roosevelt Institute, Huffington conceived of something called “Move your Money,” which sought to get consumers to move their business from large banks to smaller community institutions.