Comments on: The uprising index, explained http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/02/25/the-uprising-index-explained/ Sun, 28 Jul 2013 14:34:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: b.welldone http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/02/25/the-uprising-index-explained/#comment-2033 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 20:16:22 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=835#comment-2033 It looks like Chrystia left out the USA

Or did “freedom house” leave it off their list?

They didnt predict OccupyWallStreet?

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By: BobDobbs http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/02/25/the-uprising-index-explained/#comment-1006 Wed, 02 Mar 2011 06:55:55 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=835#comment-1006 I have personal experience with Vietnam. It seems quite stable. I don’t see much chance at all of there being trouble there. Would love to be proven wrong.

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By: Zephyr256k http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/02/25/the-uprising-index-explained/#comment-993 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 04:13:28 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=835#comment-993 I actually did some under-graduate work in this area a few years ago. I’d be interested in looking back at this in a a few years to see how accurate the vulnerability to food prices is, my understanding is that it is difficult to get an accurate account of GDPPC and other economic indicators from regions where political instability is a concern.

I’d also be interested to break out GDPPC and see how it compares to the vulnerability to food price vulnerability in the past, and maybe working in JohnF500’s suggestion of looking at water availability/prices since there have been a number of studies I am aware of that have looked at GDPPC, but relatively few looking at food and water price/availability.

Looking at internet penetration in this way is novel, I’ll be very interested to see how well it works out as a predictor especially since it is at least somewhat correlated to higher GDPPC which would tend to indicate greater stability. It would however be difficult to look back at the importance of internet penetration since even just two or three years ago it was likely significantly lower, so we may see it become an increasingly important predictor in the near future, but not much earlier.

One factor to look at which may be easier to judge than internet penetration would be cell phone penetration, which will be much higher and less strongly correlated to economic indicators in the recent past (last ten to fifteen years or so) and provide a similar level of connectivity to the outside world and amongst citizens.
(Remember the lesson of former Philippine president Estrada in January of 2001)

For anyone interested, I would also suggest checking out the work of Brandt et. al. on “Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Political Conflict”, they use TABARI/CAMEO to trawl news articles for relevant events and construct predictive models of various types of political instability, I think the actually study is still on-going, but the proposal contains a good look at their reasoning/methodology as well as some excellent cited works and other resources.

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By: JohnF500 http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/02/25/the-uprising-index-explained/#comment-979 Fri, 25 Feb 2011 22:25:21 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/?p=835#comment-979 You might consider adding another factor: availability of safe drinking water.

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