Opinion

Chrystia Freeland

Corruption and India’s 1 percent

Chrystia Freeland
Nov 17, 2011 19:05 EST

The only important question in the West right now is how to restart stalled economic growth. So it is easy to be dazzled by India, where a 7 percent rise in gross domestic product is the nightmare scenario, and optimists are shooting for 9.

But Indians themselves are starting to worry about how that growth is being achieved — and who is benefiting. The headline complaint is corruption. That is nothing new here, of course. But the country now has a middle class self-confident enough to feel humiliated by paying quotidian bribes and resentful of the rise of baksheesh billionaires. Anna Hazare’s hunger strike became a national political event because it tapped into this anger of the urban bourgeoisie.

“India has been overwhelmed by corruption scams,” said Kiran Bedi, the first woman officer in India’s elite police service and one of Hazare’s chief lieutenants. “While it has been apparent that India is shining, India has also been declining in many ways in that there has been rampant exposure of corruption.”

Nor is it just the activists who say that alongside India’s remarkable economic surge the rot has been spreading, too.

“Corruption is endemic,” said Rajiv Lall, chief executive of the Infrastructure Development Finance Company, a partly state-owned financial institution. “I don’t think anybody here is pretending that there’s no corruption in the country. And corruption can take on a new dimension, especially in this time of great transformation.”

Graft is just part of the story. One of the reasons to celebrate India’s astonishing economic rise is that the subcontinent desperately needed to get richer. In 1991, when Manmohan Singh, then the finance minister and now the prime minister, began the liberalization program that underpins the country’s transformation, India’s 854 million citizens had an average annual per capita income of only $1,300. The problem, said Arun Maira, a former industrialist who is a member of the country’s influential planning commission, is that India’s economic rise has had the least impact on the people who need it most.

“My thesis is that most people are not feeling included in the growth,” Maira said. “This has become a very loud voice which is saying ‘Come on guys, the economy is growing very fast now. You’re celebrating this 8, 9, 10 percent growth, but what about us?”’

B.N. Kalyani, the chairman of Bharat Forge, India’s largest exporter of motor parts, sees the same inequitable growth.

“It saddened me a lot to see that even Bangladesh has a better social index, in terms of what it was in 1990 to what it is today, compared to India,” Kalyani said. “All this glitz and glamour and everything that we see about business, the high-rises in Mumbai and businesses moving ahead and the stock market and everything, don’t seem to travel too far beyond the urban setting of India.”

But even many of these critics of India’s lopsided development think it is inevitable — one of the growing pains of the country’s swift economic rise.

Maira pointed to a commonly used measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient, saying “it always rises whenever growth takes off.”

“When you open more opportunity, like more free markets and the opportunity for people to do their own thing, those who already have some capital, or they have some education, or they have access to people in power so that they could help get access to the new opportunities more easily, they will first grow themselves, their own wealth,” he said. “So you will get the people with something becoming richer faster than those who don’t have access to education, to some capital and to the system.”

As Maira points out, one of the most powerful advantages of the wealthiest 1 percent is “access to people in power.” Corrupt business deals are the most extreme use — and abuse — of those relationships. But there is a more subtle reason the game is most effectively played by those who are already winning it. S. Gopalaskrishnan, the co-chairman of Infosys, the pioneering Indian technology company, said that “the tendency is that people who have access to power and access to governments, etc., tend to get a better deal.

“The policies, the roots, are framed because they are people who give inputs to those policies,” he said.

This is the Indian version of what Willem Buiter, the former London School of Economics professor who is now chief economist at Citigroup, calls “cognitive capture,” and which he blames in part for the regulatory and legislative lapses that helped create the 2008 financial crisis.

Just as that financial crisis and the more recent populist protests have shaken some of the certainties created by cognitive capture in the West, the unexpected success of the Anna Hazare movement has focused the Indian elite on the shortcomings of its own model.

But breaking out of what the economist Raghuram Rajan has warned risks becoming “oligarchic” capitalism will require more than correctly diagnosing the problem. Ashutosh Varshney, a professor of international studies at Brown University, likens India’s thriving and dirty capitalism to the United States’ Gilded Age. That apt comparison suggests that India watchers should be on the lookout for a Hindu version of the Roosevelts — a Teddy to break the grip of the robber barons and an F.D.R. to offer the 99 percent a New Deal.

There is, however, one important difference. India’s robber barons have emerged in the age of globalization and at a time when the United States, still the world’s dominant economy, is experiencing its own second Gilded Age. The wealthiest 1 percent is a global class, and cognitive capture is an international phenomenon. The world may need its own global Roosevelts, too.

COMMENT

Is the corruption and greed in India really any different from that of the US, Russia, Western Europe, or anywhere else? I think, the answer is both yes and no.
In places where the rule of Law is strong, I think a collective sense of right and wrong pervades, and graft and corruption are quickly rooted out and dealt with. In places where the rule of Law is not so strong, graft and corruption can run rampant, simply because there are no consequences for doing it. If there are no laws against graft, or those laws are not uniformly enforced, then why shouldn’t everyone do it if they can get away with it. Thus I see differences between India and the US.

Next, people generally want to improve their lives. Who can fault them? Individually, and independent of what country one lives in, I think people tend to look at others they perceive as “successful” and emulate them. Many use “wealth” as a measure of success, regardless of whether this is a good metric or not. Who, then, can fault someone for trying to get as much money as they can? I cannot. However, I can fault someone for making as much money as they can illegally. Fortunately for me, corruption is much less tolerated in the US than India, apparently. Chyrstia labels this “cognitive capture” and that makes a lot of sense to me.
Next, I think changes in society only really come about when there is a crisis. I offer politicians continuing to “kick the can down the road” as my example. You can pick the politician. I think India will change with regard to corruption and graft only when there is a crisis requiring change. Who knows, maybe a Roosevelt will rise up in response to that crisis. However, it is the crisis, and not the person that heralds change.
And finally, we all hope that change enables India’s growth in wealth to be distributed more uniformly accross the population. Heck, I want that for America too.

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George Soros’ advice for the euro zone

Chrystia Freeland
Nov 10, 2011 19:18 EST

Europeans could use a little cheering up this week. One man who is trying to do that is George Soros. He knows his way around a currency crisis, of course, and he isn’t usually accused of being a Pollyanna. Soros thinks it is not too late to save Europe and the euro — but he warns that time is running out and that Europe’s leaders must fundamentally change their strategy to succeed.

Let’s start with the bad news. “Right now, the crisis has hit a new high, because there’s an unresolved government crisis in Greece and in Italy,” Soros said. “There is also a looming worsening of the financial crisis, because all the efforts to leverage the E.F.S.F. have run into legal or technical difficulties.” He was referring to the European Financial Stability Facility, the bailout fund for the euro zone.

“That means that currently Europe has no ring fence against a possible Greek default, and that is what is pushing the market into a renewed panic,” he said. “I expect the market to fall into despair and panic and I expect that to get worse.”

Despair may indeed be the right emotion, if you accept Soros’s prediction of what will happen if European leaders don’t get ahead of the markets: “This crisis is potentially bigger than the crash of 2008, because we have survived the crash of 2008 and we have not yet survived this one. There is a danger if they get it wrong then you have a financial meltdown. If there is a disorderly default in Greece, and the rest of the euro zone has not been insulated from contagion, then you could have a meltdown not only of the Greek financial system, but of the European and in fact the global financial system because we are so interconnected.”

So far, so dire. But Soros has two ideas that should perk you up. One is about the bazooka, and one is about the most important woman in the world.

The bazooka is the financial weapon Europe has created to defend ailing European economies from the skeptical traders who are betting against them. To end the crisis, Europe needs a bazooka big enough to convince the markets that making a wager against Frankfurt will be futile — and expensive.

Until now, the story of this financial crisis is one of European leaders consistently being one step behind the markets: bringing a fist to a knife fight, then a knife to the gun fight — and never bringing out the bazooka. Conventional wisdom — and the verdict of the markets this week — is that the European Financial Stability Facility war chest of €440 billion, or $600 billion, is a continuation of this pattern of insufficiency.

Soros disagrees: “It actually has the bazooka in its hand, provided it uses it in the right way.”

To do that, Soros said, Europe must first acknowledge what its bazooka is too small to achieve: rescue Europe’s faltering members directly. The bailout fund, he said, “was designed as a way of providing guarantees on government bonds, but for that purpose it is clearly inadequate. It cannot be stretched to cover Italy and Spain.”

But the bailout fund is big enough, Soros thinks, to save Europe in a different way. “It needs to be used to guarantee the banking system,” he said . “That would create a lender of last resort, which is currently lacking.”

The bailout fund, he continued, could take the solvency risk, which is beyond the legal right of the European Central Bank. “And for that,” he said, “there is plenty of money.” Thus shored up, the banks would be able to buy the high-yielding government debt of the European countries that are currently struggling to find lenders.

Banks would be encouraged to hold their liquidity in Treasury bills, Soros said, which they could sell to the European Central Bank at any moment. “So it is the equivalent of cash, and it would yield more than cash, therefore they would hold it,” Soros said. “That would allow countries like Italy and Spain during this crisis period to borrow at negligible cost.”

His plan, Soros said, would make Italy’s debt “sustainable, because the E.C.B. has any amount of money for the purpose of providing liquidity. At the same time, it would not violate the law against the E.C.B. directly financing the governments.”

Soros’s plan is essentially a way to get around Europe’s fundamental economic flaw — it has a single currency, but no lender of last resort: “It’s a trick, but a trick that would work.”

The European crisis has metastasized because Germany has been adamant about blocking precisely this sort of trick. The second reason for Soros’s relative optimism is his conviction that Germany and its leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel — the aforementioned most important woman in the world — have recently had a crucial change of heart.

“It is entirely in the hands of Germany,” Soros said. “Angela Merkel’s attitude has changed. She recognizes that the euro is in mortal danger and she is willing to risk her political future to save it. I think she recognizes that Germany has caused the crisis to get out of control, and she is now determined to correct that.”

Merkel is very good at getting what she wants, so fans of Europe and the euro should be somewhat reassured by Soros’s verdict. But only somewhat. Soros is a persuasive salesman of his plan to rescue Europe, but his most telling remark comes when I ask him what he would do if he were still actively trading.

“I would be sitting on the fence like everybody else, because the situation is so uncertain.”

 

COMMENT

Soros is obviously a genius. What seems missing is a world view that includes noblesse oblige.

As much as everyone disliked Berlousconi I respected that he was a cross-over from the wealthy elite who wielded political power, and the problems that go with it.

I don’t think the answer is to shoot the rich, or the poor of the world. For social order the wealth has to be employed so that society functions and a “food chain” feeds each level of the economic strata.

The comments show a real spectrum of understanding of the issues.

So what to do with defaulting sovereign debts and the possible revolutions that go with it?

No prospects, no money, no jobs, and no hope.

I thought it telling that the Bank of Greece still holds gold bullion, why not use that to buy wheat for bread?
I think the Argentina analogy is a good one and valid here to a default scenario.

A New York cabbie told me in 2008 that the problem is interest on the money, that we should use the Sharia concept of no interest. I saw his point but how could the banking system work without interest?

It may be best if, in order to preserve capital, soft loans were given to “band-aid” over this turmoil. It is a compromise, but are we really ready for the social chaos that a huge crisis would create?

We need capital but it is a master without mercy.
I suggest that the real masters of wealth consider preserving the world. Does humanity work for capital or does capital serve humanity? We are all in together.

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Do things look different from north of the border?

Chrystia Freeland
Nov 7, 2011 19:40 EST

My column last week on how a few members of the 1 percent are responding to Occupy Wall Street provoked some vehement responses, many of which appear in the comments to my post. One of the most interesting, though, was sent to me by email from a Canadian reader who thinks U.S. business elites are more sympathetic to OWS than my column suggested. I hope he is right — but I wonder whether his and his clients’ (he is a prominent art dealer) sympathy for OWS is partly a reflection of how much Canadian and U.S. political culture, particularly at the top, diverge. I’m publishing his comments below, and I hope you’ll tell me what you think.

—–

Chrystia Freeland, editor of Thomson Reuters Digital, has fumbled the ball again.

Thinking that Occupy Wall Street (OWS) is the left wing alternative to the corporately funded Tea Party Movement, she finds it paradoxical that former Canadian prime minister Paul Martin and former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo would be supportive. After all, Martin is a “millionaire businessman,” and Zedillo “serves on the boards of blue chips Procter & Gamble and Alcoa.”

Recalling a recent interview with them, she writes:

Mr. Martin and Mr. Zedillo would be welcome at any corporate dining room on Wall Street or financiers’ dinner party, but it was striking how strongly their view of Occupy Wall Street differed from the conventional wisdom among U.S. business elites.

I concede that Freeland has better access to the “U.S. business elites” than me, but I don’t think their hostility to OWS is nearly as deep as she believes. OWS has received lots of sympathetic coverage in the business press, and most of the red meat capitalists that I periodically cite feel the same.

As an art dealer, I enjoy good relations with a signify number of Canada’s “elite” (as defined by money), and have only heard sneering, disparaging remarks about OWS from a couple of them.

Most share Martin and Zedillo’s views. They are deeply concerned by the toxic mess that the borrow and spend, deregulating, tax cutting, trickle down, private wealth and public poverty oligarchs have created in the States. They value a social contract of shared rights and responsibilities, for they know that their own interests are best served by social stability. They believe that this is better sustained through education and general prosperity than by the coercion of a corporate police state. Like me, they favor equal opportunities over equal outcomes, and have no problems with financial, professional, and social rewards based on merit.

Freeland thinks that there’s a natural linkage between “crony capitalism” and a “meritocratic democracy.”  Where the only value is money, that’s probably true; but real democracies are built on much broader bases.  Money is only one of many measures of a man’s worth.  To make it the only measure — and to defer to its power — is a recipe for societal collapse.

–Christopher Varley

COMMENT

With all due respect Freeland is operating upon egregious assumptions abut Mr. Martin the former primeminister of Canada.
Mr. Martin as do so many of today’s elite represents extremem Liberal Fascism. Take other peoples taxes and hand it out for votes as generously as possible. Former Prime minister Martin moved all of his vast Canadian Fiancial holdings “Off Shore”. So he can wax eloquent in supporting the complaints of the “OW’s” becsuse tax wise in Canada Mr. Martin if virtually unassailable.
Mr. Zedillo is also cut from the extreme Liberal cloth but for a differnt reason. He sees the only future hope for Mexico and his family is via a Fascist power block that can literaly execute the Narco Czars into oblvion. A task impossible under Mexico’s present Constitution.

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Welfare bums vs crony capitalists

Chrystia Freeland
Nov 4, 2011 11:12 EDT

 

Paul Martin and Ernesto Zedillo are members in good standing of the global elite. Martin is a former Canadian prime minister, finance minister, deficit hawk and, in his life before politics, multimillionaire businessman. Zedillo is a former president of Mexico, holds a doctorate in economics, directs Yale University’s Center for the Study of Globalization, and serves on the boards of the blue chips Procter & Gamble and Alcoa.

Yet when I interviewed the two of them in a wide-ranging public conversation last week, hosted by the Center for International Governance Innovation, an independent, nonpartisan Canadian research organization, they sounded an awful lot like the people camped out in Zuccotti Park in New York.

Neither Zedillo nor Martin had sympathy for the complaint that Occupy Wall Street lacked a clear agenda. As Zedillo put it: “These criticisms — ‘Oh, they don’t have an agenda, they only pose problems and provide no solutions’ — well, they are citizens and they have earned the right to express a very serious, real problem.”

The truth, the two statesmen agreed, was that the protesters were articulating a real, important and global concern.

“I have yet to talk to anyone who says they aren’t reflecting a disquiet that they themselves feel,” Martin said. “I think really the powerful thing is that Occupy Wall Street has hit a chord that really is touching the middle class — the middle class in Canada, the middle class in the United States, the middle class right around the world — and I think that makes it actually very, very powerful.”

In fact, Zedillo thought the Occupy group should widen its sights — “I could argue as an economist it’s not only about Wall Street. They should have an Occupy G-20” — a possibility his successors at the Group of 20 table are sufficiently worried about that protesters are being confined to Nice while the heads of state meet in Cannes this weekend.

Martin and Zedillo would be welcome at any corporate dining room on Wall Street or financiers’ dinner party, but it was striking how strongly their view of Occupy Wall Street differed from the conventional wisdom among American business elites.

That dissonance was not lost on Martin. He started out diplomatically — “I think that most people have basically given them a fair amount of credit” he said of the protesters — but then could not resist adding: “I don’t want to pick on U.S. bankers, but the reaction, the one that really got me was the banker who basically said, ‘You know, these are just a bunch of welfare bums. What we’ve got to do is cut welfare.’ A New York banker saying we’ve got to cut welfare is staggering to me. Why doesn’t he just look in the mirror? I think that actually what’s happened is that the inability of some people to defend their position has become so manifest that it’s actually added to the power of Occupy Wall Street.”

The welfare bums critique is a familiar elite response to populist rage, particularly from the left, and it is not confined to the United States. Some of the German reaction to protesting southern Europeans had a similar flavor, as did some of the British push-back against the riots there in the summer.

What is interesting about the United States is that the first burst of grass-roots anger came from the right. Although the policy prescriptions of the Tea Party could not differ more radically from those of Occupy Wall Street, the movements share an anti-elite sentiment. That may be why some agenda-setting thinkers on the right are putting forward an analysis of America’s ills that deftly combines the anti-welfare-bums riff of the country’s beleaguered upper crust with conservative grass-roots anger against many of those same elites.

This was the elegant pivot of Representative Paul D. Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican, speaking at the Heritage Foundation last week. The “true sources of inequity in our country,” Ryan argued, were “corporate welfare that enriches the powerful and empty promises that betray the powerless.” In Ryan’s analysis, the problem with America’s political economy is “a class of bureaucrats and connected crony capitalists trying to rise above the rest of us, call the shots, rig the rules and preserve their place atop society.”

What is striking is how similar that dyspeptic vision is to the Occupy Wall Street consensus that the U.S. economy has been hijacked by bankers and the lobbyists and politicians they bankroll.

There is a reason “crony capitalism” is the common target of political movements that differ over nearly everything else. At a time when governments have spent billions bailing out banks even as they cut pensions and social services, and when income inequality is soaring worldwide, it is hard to deny that the 1 percent are getting a pretty terrific deal.

But taking the diagnosis of crony capitalism as the first step toward a cure for the Western world’s ills is a little more complicated.

Economic growth is the most pressing problem for everyone today, and no matter how fierce your animosity toward the 1 percent, it is hard to see how reining them in more effectively right now will goose the gross domestic product (indeed, in many countries the rise of the 1 percent has coincided with strong economic growth).

The second complication is that your crony capitalism may well be my meritocratic democracy. A general charge of crony capitalism is easy to make. But dividing the “bad” crony capitalists from the “good” innovative entrepreneurs is much harder to do. And sorting them out without creating a new group of crony capitalists may be the hardest thing of all.

Editor’s note: Due to a technical error crediting an earlier version of this article to the wrong author, it has been republished, without changes, to this URL.

COMMENT

A flat/fair type tax model may reduce welfare! How many collecting welfare would you guess work under the table-10%, 20%+ etc? Too many ways to game the system, we need a simple solution to combat cheaters-morals/ethics are too poor now!

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